Tuesday, January 27, 2015

Our expectations have been mis-managed

Yahoo: US corporates have started reporting their financial results for the 4th quarter of 2014. So far, it looks horrible.
Bearing in mind that just 18% of the S&P has reported, this is how the quarter is tracking: EPS growth of 0.3% versus an expected growth rate of 8.5% on September 30 when the quarter began; sales growth of 0.6% versus an expected rate of 3.7%.
The question is whether these results indicate that the trend in earnings and sales growth is changing. The answer is no for sales but yes for earnings.
It should be no surprise that the energy sector has been hard hit by falling oil prices. The average price of oil was roughly $95 in 3Q; it fell 30% to an average of roughly $65 in 4Q.  The year-over-year fall is about the same. As a result, EPS for the energy sector fell by 24% and sales by 17% (data from FactSet).

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