Monday, February 16, 2015

An additional $200 billion in debt a year is impossible, without deflation

NY Post: Almost 90 percent of ObamaCare users get federal aid. As a result, a new CBO report projects ObamaCare subsidies will balloon to nearly $2 trillion over the next decade, only partially paid for by more than $640 billion in ObamaCare taxes and fines, which means more government borrowing and more upward pressure on interest rates.

The interest costs are simply too volatile to cover an additional 200 billion a year.  That is something like a 30% rise in interest volatility. Remember, Treasury is still rolling over something like 1.5 T a year. But Janet already takes something like 90 billion a year from the rate flows, so the bond market is going to sit on the money.

Deflation is the solution. Economists seems to forget, sitting on the dollar can still earns more in deflation then the 2% per year covered by Treasury.  And deflation reduces interest costs for Congress, especially interest cost volatility.


No comments: