Tuesday, February 24, 2015

Hamada says Bernanke and QE saved the day

Project Syndicate: When the US investment bank Lehman Brothers collapsed in 2008, triggering a global financial crisis, Bernanke – who had since become US Federal Reserve Chair – took his own advice, instituting a bold QE program to revive the United States' moribund economy. The United Kingdom, too, pursued robust QE – and, like the US, it is now experiencing relatively strong economic growth (which is why the British participants in Geneva should have known better).
Compared to what?

Well, compared to Japan, Mr. Hamada says. How about we compare it to the USA, in the 1990s and the USA in the 2000s.   We have three business cycles, one and a hlf of them have this bold QE thing. I do not see one shred of evidence across the three that supports QE.  In fact, I see two negative blips since the 2008 crash, and none in the prior two. I mostly see lower trend growth in the cycle in which Ben did the Bold QE.

Notice the last cycle, we have two negative blips, one caused by Cristina Romer and the bonehead stimulus, and the second was half weather and half Obamacare, Delong's favorite.

Now, batty economists will make up lots of priors, but their priors has better all happen before that red line starts in 2003. Once the red line starts we get a crappy cycle. So, Mr. Hamada, here is an idea. Compare apples with apples and oranges with oranges; then your data set matches your conclusions.

The most likely prior I see is a regularly scheduled recessions, mostly caused by cyclic behavior in DC.

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