Thursday, March 5, 2015

Negative interest rate and confusion

Why are some interest rates going negative?

We have more bankers than we have term structure, so bankers charge a high ATM fee to use money. The question is, why don't bankers retire and go out of business?  Because the problem is with governments in Europe, Japan and the USA. Governments have mis priced their long term investments and are in a debt spiral, quite frankly.  So the banking network is mostly focused on government debt.

So should the banking network shrink or should bankers charge higher ATM fees? That is the banker's call, they think government will eventually get its finances in order.  The issue is how to governments get their finances in order.  If bankers are correct, then they will hang in their and governments will declare losses on soem of their assets, raise taxes and get back into healthy shape.  If bankers are wrong then governments will nuke, carpet bomb, genocide, and cause horrors on society.  Both have happened and bankers may be right governments may remain sane. bankers should be closer to the problem and predicting moments of government insanity is difficult.

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