Sunday, March 8, 2015

No arbitrage inventory flow equations

The idea of a no arbitrage production network is that any firm in the distribution chain (or production chain) will have no opportunity to hoard real inventory. In fact, no arbitrage is the definition of not hoarding.

Consider Apple selling iPhones.  It announces its inventory purchases and shipments over the next two periods such that there is only only iPhone per customer. It sounds trivial, but its not because underneath is a complex organization that matches production to expected sales, which is most of their value added. The intent is simple, there shall be no opportunity for customers or retailers to hoard iPhones because the inventory flow will not bunch up.

The announcement means that Apple will obey the hyperbolic flow conditions over discrete hyperbolic angles. The angles are discrete because the network is a finite graph.  The same principal holds for iPhones produced by Apple and money produced by a currency banker.  When the currency banker makes its two period announcement it is simply saying that prices will remain unchanged, on the average. That is another trivial statement, but underneath are the complex estimates and surveys and searches techniques of the member banks.  Same deal.

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