Sunday, April 5, 2015

A little fact checking on Krugman is in order


From this 2013  link, here is what Paul says:
"You need them to understand what we’re seeing, which is the failure of deflation to appear in the US now (and the slow pace of deflation in Japan). "

 What do the charts say?

Take a look, the implicit price deflator. The implicit price deflator is actual deflation/inflation, computed after all the revision to real GDP growth. It includes all prices, not just consumer prices. change (QoQ).

The chart says Japan has been consistently deflationary at about -.4% since 1995. The recent exception being the sales tax hike and the most recent quarter. There are only two other places where is shot up positive for a quarter.

Then Paul says:
"In fact, [deflation] by raising the real burden of debt, it makes things worse"
That needs analysis. For Japan which continually rolls over its 200% of GDP debt, they see a continual reduction in nominal rates, Good. But they have to operate in a declining tax base, Bad. A far as the USA, the implicit price deflator (change QoQ), has gone negative twice, once right after the crash and once today, the only two times that has happened since the Nixon Shock.

July 2013 is a long time ago in the world of broken economist models, and Paul has figured a few things out.  I hope he has figured out that Central Banks only cause inflation about once every forty years, the last time for us was the Nixon Shock in 1972. Nixon broke the law and caused ten years of inflation until Volker crushed it.

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