Monday, April 20, 2015

Let's do a Beckworth

Banker theorists talking regime change.
Beckworth on NGDP targeting: First, the Fed adopts a NGDP level target. Doing so would better anchor nominal spending and income expectations and therefore minimize the chance of ever entering a liquidity-trap... [I]f the public believes the Fed will do whatever it takes to maintain a stable growth path for NGDP, then they would have no need to panic and hoard liquid assets in the first place when an adverse economic shock hits.

Second, the Fed and Treasury sign an agreement that should a liquidity trap emerge anyhow [say due to central bank incompetence] and knock NGDP off its targeted path, they would then quickly work together to implement a helicopter drop. The Fed would provide the funding and the Treasury Department would provide the logistical support to deliver the funds to households. Once NGDP returned to its targeted path the helicopter drop would end and the Fed would implement policy using normal open market operations. If the public understood this plan, it would further stabilize NGDP expectations and make it unlikely a helicopter drop would ever be needed.

Taking the second part: "they would then quickly work together to implement a helicopter drop." We do, every forty years or so.  That is how long it takes to get into a liquidity trap. So this part is done, and now is the time, yet again, for our forty year helicopter drop.

The first part: "anchor nominal spending and income expectations". Inflation expectations are anchored, they are anchored to expect a Reagan style inflation after the Nixon style helicopter drop, followed by a Clinton style disinflation, then a short Hoover deflation until the next helicopter drop.

Beckworth has everything he wants, but it would seem to me we should shorten the cycle to say, maybe one year and do the helicopter in smaller amounts. What is the point of doing the same monetary regime we have done for 120 years, lets try a more efficient version of the same thing.  Plus, the best method to handle a Reagan inflation is a bit of the  helicoptor pick up. You know, drops and pickups both, why let a good tool go to waste?

We now have to tools to do helicopter drops and pick-ups on a day by day basis, using spreadsheets and web bots. let's do it, anybody up for some fun?

Helicoptor drops and pickups are fundamental. I thnk we miss this.  Grocery store coupons, frequent flyer miles, Walmat value points, High Frequency trading, the Feynman diagram in physics. It is the fundamental action in adapted aggregate statistics, the exchange.

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