Anybody taking bets on the output? That is a great betting tool, players monitor the NowCast queue, consisting of reports. This is something a Banker Bot should be able to do, takes no arbitrage bets on the price of a NowCast output. Betters can bet on future NowCast. BankerBot makes no hedge on NowCast output, it only reports most probable price distribution of NowCast bets. It pays off to make neutral, its cost 25 cents. I get the ad revenue. Venture capitalist guarantees me 20% of the ad revenue and I would write a banker bot.
I would set Nmax, the number quants. Create Nmax queues, the nodes on a Huffman Encoding Tree. Send the next price to the middle queue, and work left or right to the price. That queue computes mostly likely price, using second difference. Sometime NowCast reports, and all currents bets paid. Cash in advance on bets.
But if the bot just treated all bets as savings and loans, with the top node having the most likely price, then each bet causes a rate change. Each queue can have a savings and loan accounts with the queue up stream, and changes its savings and loans when rates change upstream.
The actual NowCast comes in and it becomes the exact price. That rescales the probability graph where we have eight betting queues (nodes) each with a probable price. The eight queues earn one unit, so the dollars bet is split between them according to the most probable.
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