So, the average first-quarter growth rate since the end of the recession has been 0.4%, while the average growth rate over that period was 2.2%. This might make you wonder whether there is something funny going on with the seasonal adjustment of the data. The same thought occurred to Glenn Rudebusch et al. at the S.F. Fed, and they showed that, in fact, there is residual seasonality in the real GDP time series. They ran the supposedly-seasonally-adjusted real GDP time series through Census X-12 (a standard statistical seasonal adjustment filter), and came up with an estimate of first-quarter 2015 real GDP growth that was 1.6 percentage points higher than the reported number at the time (before the latest revisions). Apparently the BEA has been made aware of this problem, and is working on it.
Banker Bot prices the WinterCoin to Dollars. So agents in the economy can save and borrow to measure seasonal change in WinterCoin. But WinterCoin needs a mark to market mechanism, the Winter Coin bettors need an external signal to bet against. This is the requirement in no arbitrage betting, there must be a group trading against the effect externally, that is banker bots member bank problem.
Banker bot always needs to recruit a consistent group of betters who have a stake in the outcome. But we have three dominant effect, DC tax season, winter weather and holiday spending. One bet that differentiates the seasonal effect is government deficits in DC vs sales tax income for the large states.
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