Tuesday, September 29, 2015

Mass default time says the IMF

Telegraph: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has issued a double warning over higher US interest rates, which it said could trigger a wave of emerging market corporate defaults and panic in financial markets as liquidity evaporates.
The IMF said corporate debts in emerging markets ballooned to $18 trillion (£12 trillion) last year, from $4 trillion in 2004 as companies gorged themselves on cheap debt.
It said the quadrupling in debt had been accompanied by weaker balance sheets, making companies more vulnerable to US rate rises.
"As advanced economies normalise monetary policy, emerging markets should prepare for an increase in corporate failures," the IMF said in a pre-released chapter of its latest Financial Stability Report.
Corporations in emerging markets borrowing in US dollars.   When that happens their income in local money and their debt payments in dollars have a different term structure, that means a large liquidity premium.  US rates rise they have little ability to restructure debt.

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