Look at velocity

Here we have the velocity of the money bases and the potential growth.  Potential growth drops and the velocities drop next.  But the potential growth is computed, backward, so cause and effect is not clear.

But, the lower the velocity then  the larger the quantities transacted to equal the same growth. So a drop in velocity is a shift right on the bankers curve, a slow down, generally.  It is like a radiation   curve, we get a shift right on cool down.  But  the  curve  is still natural, and positive definite.  Economist try to measure the quarterly market federal funds rate.  It does not exist, the quarterly term is gone, except for money transaction costs.  This economy has skipped the quarterly inventory cycle, why bother when it takes government so long to do the tiniest thing.