Wednesday, October 28, 2015

Uh Oh, steel demand is collapsing

Yahoo: The steel industry's dire straits are in the spotlight this week, with both China and the U.K. warning about the hit from the dramatic slump in demand, particularly from the world's second-biggest economy.

The World Steel Association forecasts that global steel demand will decrease by 1.7 percent in 2015, before growing by 0.7 percent in 2016. However Chinese demand is seen falling both this year and next, by 3.5 percent and 2 percent respectively, following a demand peak in 2013. Steel prices have held at $170 per ton since October 8, having fallen sharply over the last year from above $400 per ton.
On Wednesday, the deputy head of the China Iron and Steel Association warned that demand for the ferrous metal was waning fast. 
One more sign the Kanosians have generated another recession. And this from the Atlanta Nowcast machine:

Atlanta Fed: The Crowd’s Q3 GDP Expectations Are Too High

Expectations are in need of a haircut for tomorrow’s preliminary release of the government’s third-quarter US GDP report, according to yesterday’s update of the Atlanta Fed’s unofficial estimate. In contrast with Econoday.com’s consensus forecast for a 1.7% rise in Q3 output, yesterday’s update of the unofficial GDPNow model forecast sees Q3 growth at a tepid 0.8%, down a tick from the bank’s Oct. 20 nowcast of 0.9% and far below Q2’s strong 3.9% rise.

The Atlanta Fed advises: “The model’s nowcast for the contribution of inventory investment to third-quarter real GDP growth declined from -1.9 percentage points to -2.0 percentage points after [yesterday’s disappointing] report on durable goods manufacturing from the U.S. Census Bureau.”
So it looks like we will need another batch of Chinese home buyers to stave off the recession. But how long will Chinese home buyers tolerate a government full of Kanosian nutcases.

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