Obamacare taxes and fines, going up, way up

CNBC: The stick's getting a lot bigger — but it's not clear that many more people will choose the carrot as a result.

Households that opt to go without health insurance in 2016 are set to get hit with an average Obamacare fine of $969.

That is 47 percent higher than the average $661 penalty per uninsured household for this year, a new analysis by the Kaiser Family Foundation revealed Wednesday.

And households without insurance that earn too much to qualify for financial aid to buy Obamacare plans will pay an even larger fine for 2016 — an average of $1,450, versus the average of $1,177 for 2015.

Uninsured households that would qualify for Obamacare subsidies to help pay for coverage face an average fine of $738 — nearly double the $389 average for this year.

"It's a substantial increase," said Larry Levitt, senior vice president at the Kaiser Family Foundation, about the higher average fines.

Buy Obamacare and get hit with an implicit income tax, do not buy it and you get hit with the same. We are going to hit 40 million households with a new thousand dollar tax next year.  Nancy Pelosi will be a household word.

What do I mean by Magic Walrus?

Counihan and other officials have been pointing out that Obamacare penalties for going without insurance are rising this year. But it's not clear, as yet, whether that message is being heard by the uninsured.

"It's not top of the mind for most people," Levitt said.

"The penalty is only effective if people know about it," said Levitt. "If people go on HealthCare.gov now, they can find out how much the insurance costs them. But it's less obvious what the penalty is for remaining uncovered."

The idea of Magic Walrus is that all effected households and firms pay attention to the detailed price menus issued by DC.    Then every soul, including the insurance companies come to a magic agreement about prices and deliveries.  Instead what we get is a meandering motion, across a semi-random path which may or may not be an equilibrium path.