Tim Duy is a bit confused

Fed Watch: On The Dispersion, Or Lack Thereof, of Economic Weakness

Tim says the probability of a recession  requires dispersion of the bad new across all sectors (like the oil shock).  He claims the industrial sector, which is in recession , will not disperse, and her has the probability of a recession  at 10%.

Let's see what a bottleneck in  Obamacare  causes to the economy.  Medical inflation is running at 4%, general inflation at zero. I think we have a a 30% riser in premium costs, and major insurers are likely losing money.

Is that dispersive? You bet, the consumer is dead in  the water, spending his discretionary cash on adverse selection inm  a losing game.  That consumer is 70% of the economy.