Tuesday, February 23, 2016

Auerbach is from Berkeley, and finds a debt catastrophe

University of California-Berkeley economist Alan J. Auerbach and Brookings Institution economist William G. Gale have published a new paper that runs the numbers on the federal debt and deficit over the medium-term and long-term. Not only is the picture they paint not a pretty one but it has become dramatically worse in just the past few months.
“Over the past year…the medium- and long-term fiscal outlooks have deteriorated,” they write. “Part of this is due to legislative changes, part to changes in economic and technical factors and a small part to changes in assumptions. This deterioration has happened without much fanfare and, even with a fall in projected interest rates working in the other direction, the estimated changes are large.”

And he actually examines the debt problem in the Swamp, it's bad


The chart compares the government assessment of the debt before the new Congress with the debt after the new Congress.  We find that the two parties have decided to run up the debt in fairly vigorous fashion, it's elecftipn time. 

These numbers do not include the social security liabilities.  Unfortunately this liability has another negative feed back.  Retirees will mostly retire at recession boundaries, so they bunch up, this adds to the cycle costs.  The other dynamic we already have seen, when Swamp debt rises, out debt cartel fees go up, the wealthy get wealthier.

Rob Garver reviiwed the material and concludes:

marshaling the legislative firepower necessary to solve major problems whose impact won’t be felt for years seems to be beyond the abilities of our lawmakers.

Not quite.  The Swamp ;legislative powers are designed to create long term problems, and all of the debt is a result of deliberately being fraudulent about future costs.  Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump both plan on having a recession eight years from now.  Voters know that, especially investors.  And that is why we will get little domestic investment, we are npot stupid, we know the Swamp is mainly fraud.

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