Saturday, February 6, 2016

What went good or bad with the seasonal adjustment?

I bet.  I think the sudden appearance of the Chinese home buyer and the warm weather kept more construction workers on the job than predicted by the adjustment.  So it mis-attributed jobs to retail.  Retail managers were, on net, announcing mass lay-offs, but it does not appear in BLS estimates which have retail up.

 And we have late reporting because of snow-maggedon.  But I was surprised to the upside by housing and take this jobs report with a bit of optimism.  So does the NowCast bot which has raised its forecast for Q1 GDP growth.  
The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2016 is 2.2 percent on February 5, up from 1.2 percent on February 1.

That implies we run at the Magic Walrus potential GDP rate.

But this is event by event, and we see if the Chinese New Year and Communist Yuan purchases stem the flow.  Then we have to incorporate all the department store restructurings.  Plus the dollar has dropped from its peak, oil up a bit.   And, big tax and Obamarule changes came in January. And we have another clump of Swamp debt to squeeze through. And the trade recession is not completely priced in, especially in China.

All of this ties back to the American consumer, and little of this unexpected.  That makes for a mild downturn.

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