Tuesday, February 23, 2016

Yes, Los Angeles is a housing bubbler

It is the comparison with the national average because the dollar and loan companies are shared throughout the economy.  California has zero population growth, our productivity growth is stagnant, and there is no way we can endogenously afford these prices.  This bubble is driven by Chinese outflow of funds, the rebalancing.  The communists over there are soon forced to rationalize capital flows, and the prices will revert suddenly.

Consider that Texas has also seen this much housing appreciation, up to 9% YoY in Dallas.  Together,  California and Texas are one quarter of the US  average, the blue dotted line above.  So we can that the North East is barely making money on housing.  That is a huge distortion.

Compare cities with the Schiller US housing index.  Most  of the California bubble markets from 2006 are right back up.

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