Thursday, March 31, 2016

John Mauldin scares us

The US’ fiscal reality

Next year, the US national debt will top $20 trillion. The deficit is running close to $500 billion, and the Congressional Budget Office projects that figure to rise.
Add another $3 trillion or so in state and local debt. As you may imagine, the interest on that debt is beginning to add up, even at the extraordinarily low rates we have today.
Sometime in 2019, entitlement spending, defense, and interest will consume all the tax revenues collected by the US government. That means all spending for everything else will have to be borrowed.
The CBO projects the deficit will rise to over $1 trillion by 2023. By that point, entitlement spending and net interest will be consuming almost all tax revenues, and we will be borrowing to pay for our defense.

So if we get a bit of the blue the deficit will go bzonkers!

Josh Barro,. white people expert

Josh: Political-science research shows "ethnocentric white voters" tend to look negatively at government programs for the poor, but they are disproportionately likely to favor programs aimed at the elderly. Relatedly, a lot of white voters were happy to vote Democratic when they saw big government as serving the interests of their own ethnic group but shifted to the Republicans when they started to see government as working to help mostly others. Here are the racial voting patterns  from  Roper Public Opinion at Cornell:

2012 Group Obama Romney

All Voters Pct. 51.00% 47.00%

SEX Men 47 45 52

Women 53 55 44

RACE White 72 39 59

African-American 13 93 6

Hispanic 10 71 27

And we see that whites had the most diverse voting pattern, which makes Josh full of crap.

Who does the most killing?

Murder rates by city, and Latin America dominates the charts, holding 10 of the worst  11 positions.  There are four US cities more violent than Tijuana!  The all time winner? Brazil.
per 100,000
1Caracas Venezuela3,9463,291,830119.87
2San Pedro Sula Honduras885797,065111.03
3San Salvador El Salvador1,9181,767,102108.54
4Acapulco Mexico903862,176104.73
5Maturín Venezuela505584,16686.45
6Distrito Central Honduras8821,199,80273.51
7Valencia Venezuela1,1251,555,73972.31
8Palmira Colombia216304,73570.88
9Cape Town South Africa2,4513,740,02665.53
10Cali Colombia1,5232,369,82164.27
11Ciudad Guayana Venezuela547877,54762.33
12Fortaleza Brazil2,4223,985,29760.77
13Natal Brazil9211,518,22160.66
14Salvador Brazil1,9963,291,83060.63
15St. Louis United States188317,41659.23
16João Pessoa Brazil6431,100,95658.40
17Culiacán Mexico518923,54656.09
18Maceió Brazil5641,013,77355.63
19Baltimore United States343623,91154.98
20Barquisimeto Venezuela7191,308,16354.96
21São Luís Brazil8021,511,67853.05
22Cuiabá Brazil412849,08348.52
23Manaus Brazil9852,057,71147.87
24Cumaná Venezuela199416,58747.77
25Guatemala City Guatemala1,5283,239,18547.17
26Belém Brazil1,1012,402,43745.83
27Feira de Santana Brazil281617,52845.50
28Detroit United States295672,19343.89
29Goiânia Brazil8471,952,60743.38
30Teresina Brazil360844,24542.64
31Vitória Brazil8021,910,10141.99
32New Orleans United States164395,71041.44
33Kingston Jamaica4921,196,04041.14
34Gran Barcelona Venezuela334833,32840.08
35Tijuana Mexico6681,708,67939.09
36Vitória da Conquista Brazil132343,23038.46
37Recife Brazil1,4923,914,31738.12
38Aracaju Brazil349925,74437.70
39Campos dos Goytacazes Brazil175483,97036.16
40Campina Grande Brazil146405,07236.04
41Durban South Africa1,2373,442,36135.93
42Nelson Mandela Bay South Africa4131,152,11535.85
43Porto Alegre Brazil1,4794,258,92634.73
44Curitiba Brazil1,1213,230,06134.71
45Pereira Colombia153469,61232.58
46Ciudad Victoria Mexico107350,86230.50
47Johannesburg South Africa1,3444,434,82730.31
48Macapá Brazil138456,17130.25
49Maracaibo Venezuela4771,653,21128.85
50Obregón Mexico90318,18428.29