Monday, June 27, 2016

Myles Udland nails Brexit

From Business Insider, some notes on the :Leave vote by a brilliant observer.
Former Wall Street trader turned photojournalist Chris Arnade wrote in May that we ought to stop treating Trump's supporters as "complete idiots."
Arnade uses a simple options model to explain how those voting for Trump - much like those who voted to Leave - could be motivated by their circumstances.
If you're screwed in the US or UK - a union worker who has either lost their job or seen wages go nowhere in the wake of mass de-unionization, or a state employee facing certain pension reductions - Leave and Trump alike are call options on the future. Your downside risk is that nothing changes. But the upside, if a new direction for government actually does change something, provides a chance for something better.
It is this chance that - to many - is worth voting for.
Why fear the British electorate when they regain legislative control of trade?   The assumption is that the British voter is  a protectionist numbskull.  Based on what evidence?  

British workers might be better off in a trade regime more liberal than with the EU, and the British voter may have figured that out.  One thing going for the British voters, they are sustainable enough to vote Brexit, and that is a lot more stable than anything happening in Italy, Greece or France.

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