Friday, June 10, 2016

Rates have already been raised

The blue line, see it go up?   That means rates on one year treasury is now volatile bout .6% . And that number is above the Fed's interest rate window.

Note the red line, going down on the right axis. Those are excess reserves becoming invested in the one year.  Note the green line.  That is the US Senate, like the affirmative action duo from California, the US Senate.  The US Senate borrowed 2.4T from the Fed, then failed to perform any price discovery with the dough, it is still stuck.

The economy works through motion, multi-equilibrium.  Motion makes price discovery work, and inventory remains locally stable.  The Swamp changes prices once or twice a generation, at best;  that is why the green line does not wiggle..  The Swamp has a huge number of school girls to deal with and it may be never before the Swamp finds the largest unique representative sample of school girls walking the trail..

Wait, I hear, its all the central bankers fault.  No, the legislature run the currency banker, if this were a proportional democracy in the Senate,  then the consensus would be, let the currencies float enough to cover published liquidity limits, then when exceeded anywhere, recompute rages, ex-post facto, and settle bets.  There is no other possible model, money has to measure, that means.  Cnage ypiur criteria, fine, but you still have to have a simple model, double entry accounting would never be so accurate otherwise.

The members of the US Senate should know this simple fact, money makes exchanges go in the proper sequence, so the taxis arrive mostly when the show ends.  Prices simply are the partition between supply and demand, prices make the economy a two colored graph, clerks and customers.  Yields are the outcome, they specify the number of school girls everyone expects, how often can one school girl rotate back to the store and join a new unique set.  Prices are just a queuing control, and there is no way ion hell that money will work if you try and work the equation backwards, as the system is deliberately information compressed, not reversible.  We avoid redundancy..

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