Thursday, July 28, 2016

Currency banking as Black-Scholes in reverse

What is options pricing theory?  We are trying to make the best bet on a price trend when the alternative is a safe rate deposit.  The price statistics are spreading over time, so the investors have to pick a quantity to match the future statistics spread; and a price to match the trend.

Currency banking, the act of making secure counting digits, works Black-Sholes in reverse.  When the NGDP value is computed and announced, then the currency banker sets the safe rate(s), as it should have been, and member banks takes gains and losses (as does the currency banker).

In the simplest model, we set the transaction costs of currency banking to zero, and assume entry and exit by member banks.  Currency risk is marked to market ASAP. That model makes the central banker a spreadsheet function with an asset value nearly zero, spreadsheet functions have no wealth.

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