Friday, September 30, 2016

My spreadsheet makes music



But we can see the output is a bit glitchy, mainly because phase is reset between notes. It takes ten times as much time to build a wave than play it! But yhe code is in that previous link.Here is another ditty composed on my spread sheet. Sounds nasty but has a nice beat.



I collect the output pcm values in a test buffer, and I can change the resolution.  So the sound below is much longer and he beatsd are visibler.



I am with Duke


Being biased, I would have preferred a border collie for prez, but Duke will do.   I am not the only on according to polls.

Thursday, September 29, 2016

How's the music project coming along you ask?

Two things, I am ghetting myself up to speed on the guitar and I have my open office spreadsheet making and playing chords.  So I have a new macro, a simple thing that generates chords from any tone,semi-tone patter, relative to the starting note.  I am not going much farther, the end goal would be a spreadsheet database of songs that play.  I call my new instrument the spreadsheet  horn, gonna get a job with the New York philharmonic.

Link

Writing score on the spread sheet looks like:
'
C10

1


2


3


4


5
16742.4000000001

q


w


q


w



17737.95






h




h




18792.71


q






q

q
q

19910.18






h




h




21094.10



h






h


q
q
22348.42


















23677.33

w


w


w


w







The numbers on tyhe left being the generated tones, and the letters to tyhe right their melody.  Their are 16 possible beats per measure, but tyhe macro properly counts tyhe quart, half and whole notes.

Status?
The hard part, generating wav files with multi-tonic sin waves works fine, and the wave pattern is preset, and not always be sine.  It allows the standard western 12 halt tones per measure. I try to keep the date accurate on the code release in the link above.

The intent is to  add yhe proper symbol to the score sheey process whenever we need another musical effect.  The wave file is opened, and not closedf until the score is processed.  It is reasonable to  change tones at certain points, so the key symbol will be introduced.  We can also preset the wave form to match a particular instrument.

Another part of the sheet has an array of parameters to initislize the pcm wave file, which is always 16 bit stereo.  Stereo effects can be added.

de Blasio wants special love for the Islamic nutcases

Daily Caller:Less than two weeks after the terrorist bombings in New Jersey and New York City’s Chelsea neighborhood, NYC Mayor Bill de Blasio’s administration is launching a new campaign against the “negative rhetoric targeting Muslim communities” that the city says gets worse after “terrorist incidents.”A press release from the city on Monday explained the reasoning for the new anti-anti-Islam efforts: “Across the country, hateful speech has made Muslim residents the target of misguided attacks and threats, especially in the aftermath of terrorist incidents,” states a press release from the city.

But, wait  I heard that all his special love was for Italians.  Remember when this idiot claimed that  Italy must be exempted from the moral service to immigrants because Italy looked loke a boot?

Second, the way I understand it, in Europe, special love for Islamos means the gals have to drop drawer.  Is that what de Blasio wants. 

 In fact, does this guy have enough brains to think this out? He reminds me of Sotomayor.

Adding bottlenecks to reduce multipliers

Summers: What is the policy implication? Principally, it is the macroeconomic importance of supporting middle class incomes. This can be done in a range of ways from promoting workers right to collectively bargain to raising spending on infrastructure to making the tax system more progressive. ...

OK, we are back to the Dem 'red line', their imposed bottleneck on government spending.  Union rights first, infrastructure spending second.  The debate here is about pension stuffing.   The Repubs do not want to go pension stuffing, but they have a bunch of tax bottlenecks to impose.  Multipliers in the Swamp are very low.

See this evidence of Chicago decline?  That decline is a direct result of bad multipliers, bottlenecks imposed by Larry Summers and his party.

I had sworn off software, back breaking work

But, having picked up a guitar, I got my tap measure out and reverse engineered the fret arithmetic.

Half tone count as some ratio the Nth power, where N counts half steps.  12 steps double the frequency, take the 12 root and we can construct all the 13 octaves by frequency. When doing this the perfect pitch step is a 1.5 ratio, or close enough.

So, having done this on my spread sheet, I got the bug, I want to construct chords out of those tones.  The spreadsheet is, after all, a perfect data base to construct all sort of chords and scale patterns.  So, my spreadsheet will become an awkward electronic organ.  Not going far, will quit soon.

Wednesday, September 28, 2016

Write a wav file in basic

Odd of me to crank out a basic macro, but I engineered the musical notes on my spread sheet and needed to play tones and chords. So I cranked a wave macro with stolen code, author acknowledged.  If I stick to pulse code modulation then adding wave file algebra is simple, I can add or remove tones from a single wave file.  So, the spreadsheet inits with the time interval, sample rate and volume.  Everything else is mandated to 16 bit stereo PCM. Hence, once the file is inited, I can re-open and do arithmetic on the data, leaving the header alone, simple. Let's me turn my spreadsheet into a music instrument.


Global sampleRate as Long
Global numSeconds as Integer
Global fileName as String
Global commandLinee as String
Global fileSize as Long
Global volume as Integer
Global iNumber as Integer
Global iTunes(8) as Integer
Global iPhases(8) as Single
Global iDeltas(8) as Single
Global pcmPattern(256) as Single
' index an argument array
CONST locRate = 1
CONST    locVol = 2
CONST    locTone = 3
CONST    locSeconds = 4
CONST locTunes = 5
Sub t
Dim x(1 to 8,1 to 2) as Integer
'  Simulate the init call from calc
x(locRate,1) = 22050
x(locVol,1) = 4096
x(locTone,1) = 300
x(locSeconds,1) = 1
x(locTunes,1) = 300
x(locTunes+1,1) = 0
argWave(x)
msgbox CurDir
'InitWave(4096,1,1)

End Sub

Function WriteWave( tone as Integer) as Integer

Dim dataPos as Long
Dim headerLength as Integer
Dim totalSamples as Long
Dim iVar As Integer

Dim dt as Single
Dim sec as Single
Dim radians as Single
Dim temp as Single



' headerLength is the length of the header.  It is used for offsetting
' the data position.
headerLength = 44

' Determine the total number of samples
totalSamples = sampleRate * numSeconds

' Populate
PutOrder(CLng(totalSamples * 4),headerLength-4,4)

For dataPos = 0 to totalSamples-1
temp = signalSum() * volume
'Two bytes per channel

  PutOrder(CLng(temp),4*dataPos+headerLength,2)
  PutOrder(CLng(temp),4*dataPos+headerLength+2,2)
Next

' Finalize the file.  Write the file size to the header.
fileSize = LOF(1)               ' Get the actual file size.

PutOrder(CLng(fileSize-8),4,4)

Close #1 ' Close the file.
WriteWave=9
 End Function

 ' Create file, initialize PCM parameters
Function InitWave(vol as Integer,seconds as Integer,rate as Integer) as Integer
Dim byteRate as Long
Dim bitSize as Integer
Dim numChannels as Integer
' Set up our parameters
sampleRate = 22050        ' CD-Quality Sound.
bitSize = 16              ' Bit Size is 16 (CD-Quality).
numChannels = 2           ' Stereo mode (2-channel).
numSeconds = seconds            ' We're going to make a 1 second sample.
fileSize = 0              ' Just set it to zero for now.
iNumber = FreeFile
volume = vol
fileName="c:\Users\anthony1\data4.wav"
if FileExists(fileName) then Kill fileName
' Open the file.  This will fail if the file exists.
Open fileName For Binary Access  Write As #iNumber
'Open fileName For Binary Access Write As #1
' Write the header
Put #iNumber, 1,  "RIFF"        ' RIFF marker
PutOrder(Clng(0),4,4)
Put #iNumber, 9,  "WAVE"        ' Mark it as type "WAVE"
Put #iNumber, 13, "fmt "        ' Mark the format section.
PutOrder(CLng(16),16,4)


PutOrder(CLng(1),20,2)  'Wave type PCM
PutOrder(CLng(2),22,2) ' two channels
PutOrder(CLng(sampleRate),24,4)
byteRate = sampleRate * 4
ShowHex(CLng(byteRate))
PutOrder(CLng(byteRate),28,4)


PutOrder(CLng(4),32,2)
PutOrder(CLng(16),34,2)
Put #iNumber, 37, "data"        ' "data" marker
InitWave=9
end Function

Sub  Operate(iVar as Integer)
Dim val as Integer
val = GetOrder(12)
Select Case iVar
Case 1 To 5
Print "Number from 1 to 5"
Case 6, 7, 8
Print "Number from 6 to 8"
Case 8 To 10
Print "Greater than 8"
Case Else
Print "Out of range 1 to 10"
End Select
End Sub

' Reverses the order, from system order to wave format order
Sub PutOrder(val as Long,pos as Long,size as Integer)
Dim i As Integer
Dim b(8) As Byte
Dim mask as Integer
Dim temp as Long
temp = val
mask=255
For i = 0 to size-1
'ShowHex(val)
b(i) = CByte((CLng(255) And val))
val = CLng(&Hffffff00 And val)/256
'ShowHex(b(i))
put #iNumber,pos+i+1,b(i) ' Basic starts counting at 1

Next
end Sub


' Accept an array of arguments from yhe spreadsheet            
Function argWave(Optional x)

  Dim iRow As Integer
  Dim iCol As Integer
  Dim dr as Single
  Dim dt as Single
     arrayArgs = 0

  If NOT IsMissing(x) Then
    If NOT IsArray(x) Then
      arrayArgs = 1
    Else
    sampleRate = x(locRate,1)
    volume = x(locVol, 1)
    tone = x(locTone,1)
    numSeconds = x(locSeconds,1)
    iRow=locTunes
    iCol=0
    while (x(iRow,1) > 0)
    iTunes(iCol) = x(iRow,1)
    dt = 1/sampleRate
  dr = iTunes(iCol) *2*pi * dt
    iPhases(iCol) = dr
    iDeltas(iCol) = dr
    iRow = iRow + 1
    iCol= iCol+1
    Wend
    iTunes(iCol) = 0
    dr = 2*pi/256
    dt=0
    for iCol = 0 to 255
    pcmPattern(iCol) = sin(dt) + 1
    dt = dt + dr
    next iCol

    argWave = InitWave(volume ,numSeconds ,sampleRate )
    WriteWave(tone)
    'Shell("c:\windows\calc.exe",2)
    commandLine = "c:\Users\anthony1\sounder " + fileName
    Shell(commandLine,2)
    'start /MIN/WAIT c:\Users\anthony1\data4.wav
    'mplay32 /play /close c:\Users\anthony1\data4.wav
    'c:\Users\anthony1\sounder  c:\Users\anthony1\data4.wav
    endif
    endif
    end function
Function signalSum()
dim i as Integer
Dim k as Integer
Dim val as Single
Dim phase as Single
Dim temp as Single
val =  0
i = 0

    while iTunes(i) > 0
    phase =  iPhases(i) +iDeltas(i)
    if phase > 2*pi then phase = phase - 2*pi

    temp = ( phase / (pi *2))
        k = 250 * temp
    val =  val + pcmPattern(k)
    iPhases(i) =  phase
    i=i+1
    Wend
    signalSum = val
    end Function

Tuesday, September 27, 2016

Perfect pitch

The fifth seventh note  step 1.5 times the frequency of the first,  If you have a simultaneous, mechanical two tone detector then you want one frequency to vibrate at substantially less than the  Shannon 'twice' the bandwidth, but you want it to have a few misses as possible.  1.5 gets you a slight under sampling of the one on the other..  From a combinatorial view point, evolution has to partition the components of the sound detector from a limited set.  Its partitions will be sets of two and sometimes three.  Making sets of five is way too complex.

What is means in the hearing detector is that the two modes will have one of those combinatorial Shannon locks, there is no way to make more complex partition of the detector and get finer gradation.  Evolution cannot observe any 5/3 solution when comparing partition sizes.

Another way to think of it.  If evolution had to make a nearly round hearing detector what is the easiest estimate of Pi/2?   Good enough to spread quantized elasticity around an imperfect tube.

Musical chairs in the government tax queue

What is the economy doing?

Waiting for DC to deliver the 100 million taxpayers who will flatten the upcoming debt bulge.  That is a very large, unique set of school girls and should be piling into the tax queue. But they mill about, in the middle of a bizarre election season.

Who believes?

Does anyone really think DC can get their arms around that debt bulge?  Remember our window, the ten year yield on Treasury bonds.  It is bound on the bottom by the insurance cost of foreign lenders.  It is bound above because Congress does not have the liquidity for rollover spikes in interest payments.  The bounds are about 1.5 to 2.0.  That is a narrow window and it is closing.

We are entirely dependent on foreign lenders.
The Fed cannot QE again without raising the currency exchange risk, and that raises insurance cost for foreign lenders.  Congress will face the come to Jesus moment and likely go through a bunch of shutdowns.  A huge mess, maybe 1% growth for a long time, or a recession that forces the issue.

But Delong created the problem!

BERKELEY – The United States’ Affordable Care Act (ACA), President Barack Obama’s signature 2010 health-care reform, has significantly increased the need for effective antitrust enforcement in health-insurance markets. Despite recent good news on this front, the odds remain stacked against consumers.

Brad Delong has been a consistent advocate of monopolization in health care as his continued support for Obamacare shows.  But he never told us about the growth of monopolies, he waits until Obamacare is about to collapse.

So my question is, why is he not fired from UC Berkeley for fraud? 

Global trade slowdown

GENEVA (AP) — The World Trade Organization is decrying a "dramatic slowing of trade growth" as it revises downward its projections, saying trade is now on track this year to grow at the slowest pace since 2009.
Director-General Roberto Azevedo says the "serious" slowdown "should serve as a wake-up call" amid growing anti-globalization sentiment.
The WTO predicted Tuesday that global trade will rise 1.7 percent this year, down from its April prediction for 2.8 percent
Import slowdown in the USA.  Average yearly growth in the USA is about 1.5% at the moment.   Looking forward, the USA is no longer the strong consumer market of yesteryear.  Expect more Asian rebalance.

Monday, September 26, 2016

Crime is mostly very expensive

I am as libertarian as the next person, but we make a two color nonetheless, legal and illegal.  Whatever our persuasion, we make the boundary and crossing it will always be very expensive for society, especially government.

Where is it the worst? Chicago.  City expenses are going to skyrocket, and the social disruption in the neighborhoods will cost much more than any welfare payment can fix.  Any of those shooting generates a $100,000 medical tab.  The police squads needed to manage the crime charge very hefty union dues.  Labor is stuck in a war zone, mobility at a standstill.  Walmart security issues are enormous.

Need a social memory.
When BLM showed up, I knew it was business as usual, eventually real Black lives will want the cops back.  Black people do not like crime, it is very expensive and disruptive; they like more police, not less. Crime makes Black lives miserable.  Blacks have to remember this rule from generation to generation.

Sunday, September 25, 2016

The natural process is inherently intelligent

Entropy is maximized, and operationally that means redundancy is removed by herding, an outcome of the queuing problem.  Hence, in the chaos, herds, and their offspring are created to manage the individual motions at once.

Take the solar system in which we live, it is just a cloud of dust.  But the dust fi  No, figired something out, by herding the clouds nature can use simpler formula for stability, it can mostly act as if all the centers of mass exist.  Hence, classical orbital theory has become simpler for us and for the dust.  That is intelligent, and we humans have believed an intelligent being must have done the work.

Ther key is to remember that when a random selection has reduced redundancy, we get a Gibbs lock, these atre favored.  Due to quantization, the next stable state, up,  is not observable.   We get quantization wells that maintain the herd, or lock the balance between the two types of statistics.  The dust gets part of equipartition done.

I try out Nick Rowe's model

He has another thought experiment, which has a lot of references to definitions unknown.  I will try out my simple model.

Set up:
I have 30 member banks, 29 have 10% of NGDP on deposit with the central bank bot. One has 10% of GDP out on loan. The central bank algorithm is rigged to break even, its expenses paid by declaring losses, and are small.

Shock:
The central bank bot sets future rates up by a quarter point.  The one bank with all loans pays more  money in or reduces lending.  The depositing banks get more out, or reduce deposits.

Outcome:
  Dunno yet.  If the bot had that knowledge it would have left rates unchanged.  If the one member bank is just now setting up manufacturing for low cost anti-gravity machines, then its boom times, otherwise bust.

Conclusion:
The imbalance between banks means there is asymmetric information; a large chunk of insider information has not been monetized.

The problem is that we have no smooth exit and entry for member banks, so when one bank is in trouble, they drag them all down.  That is what we have.  For some reason a member bank took out a 2.4 trillion dollar loan and we still have no idea what it was used for or when  the profits come in.

Saturday, September 24, 2016

State tax income trending down


Down and generally trending down.  What keeps the smaller states alive? Federal contracts and block transfers, built on debt.  But, looking at this chart, coupled with pension obligations and dismal returns, a lot of states and counties will be hitting the debt market soon.

Weary, maniacal, obsessed

Now we definitely need verse here, and melody. Having taken up the art, I shall start with the words, add the medody and make a hit song. This will be an ongoing project.




Oh! 
You better not shout, 
you better not pout
Else she's kicking you out
Hillary is coming to town
They say she has dementian
Her assistant is islamican
While hubby burys schlong again
So she's likely very angry and

You better not shout, 
you better not pout
Else she's kicking you out
Hillary is coming to town
If she thinks that you're a sexist
Any white male from Texas
Or some religion blessed
She will kick you in your nexus 
So
You better not shout, 
you better not pout
Else she's kicking you out
Hillary is coming to town

So we see some verse here, sort of make it onto a Cole Porter like ballad, in C major, since I am a novice.

Thursday, September 22, 2016

Deliverbot arrives



This is the micro version, the lid pops up with the item ordered.  

The macro version is a flat bed bot, with a small lifting arm.  It drives the neighborhood and drops your order off with the arm, placing it into your secure delivery bin at the curb edge.

Now, consumer have to buy the delivery bin, sort of a very large mail box.  It is buried into the ground actually, the lid is at curb level, like a manhole cover.  The cost of deliver box is about $200, but you pay for it in six months since you never have to drive to the store again.  

All the stores remain, we still use the inventory control.  The bots just cruise between stores and homes, optimally.  

Facebook and other sites have become useless

EschatonThe Ad CycleI thought it would've reset by now, but the internet just keeps getting worse and worse. Trying to read a website is like playing a game of whack-a-mole with the ads, and that's before we start complaining about the auto-on video and audio ads. Usually these things do follow a cycle, with the ad arms race heating up until everybody realizes it isn't sustainable and it resets a bit, but it seems like endless cover-the-text popover ads are here to stay this time. A mystery to everyone who has ever used the internet is why anybody (meaning the people who pay lots of money for these ads) think that they'll sell anything by rendering their potential customers' browsers temporarily unusable, but for some reason they do.
Some web sites have to be exited immediately.  And one wonders how they get any income at all.  The Internet hos to change.

Formal software verification for banker bot

The idea of formal verification is that the path pf software can be limited if all the conditions to break out of the  path have been proved non-existent. There is a bounded set of inputs that will keep the software on track, this this bounded set can be determined and checked against.  This is one of the many security checks done on banker bot software, making sure it is hardware and software verified.
Quanta:
In the summer of 2015 a team of hackers attempted to take control of an unmanned military helicopter known as Little Bird. The helicopter, which is similar to the piloted version long-favored for U.S. special operations missions, was stationed at a Boeing facility in Arizona. The hackers had a head start: At the time they began  In the  operation, they already had access to one part of the drone’s computer system. From there, all they needed to do was hack into Little Bird’s onboard flight-control computer, and the drone was theirs.
When the project started, a “Red Team” of hackers could have taken over the helicopter almost as easily as it could break into your home Wi-Fi. But in the intervening months, engineers from the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) had implemented a new kind of security mechanism — a software system that couldn’t be commandeered. Key parts of Little Bird’s computer system were unhackable with existing technology, its code as trustworthy as a mathematical proof. Even though the Red Team was given six weeks with the drone and more access to its computing network than genuine bad actors could ever expect to attain, they failed to crack Little Bird’s defenses.
“They were not able to break out and disrupt the operation in any way,” saidKathleen Fisher, a professor of computer science at Tufts University and the founding program manager of the High-Assurance Cyber Military Systems (HACMS) project. “That result made all of DARPA stand up and say, oh my goodness, we can actually use this technology in systems we care about.”
The technology that repelled the hackers was a style of software programming known as formal verification. Unlike most computer code, which is written informally and evaluated based mainly on whether it works, formally verified software reads like a mathematical proof: Each statement follows logically from the preceding one. An entire program can be tested with the same certainty that mathematicians prove theorems.

Geoge Will takes up socialism


NRO: The University of South Carolina’s Moore School of Business estimates that more than 187,000 jobs — one of every eleven South Carolina jobs — and $53 billion in economic output are directly or indirectly related to Charleston’s port. It, however, needs further dredging in order to handle more of the biggest ships, which is where Congress enters the picture: Unless it authorizes the project and appropriates the federal portion of the $509 million cost to augment South Carolina’s already committed $300 million, the project will be delayed a year. The deepening project is only 14 percent of the $2.2 billion South Carolina is investing in its port facilities and related access.

George always seemed quick to spend other people's money, then claim some ideology that makes him different from the usual socialist.

Wednesday, September 21, 2016

Politics determines when, if ever, the 2.4 T borrowed will be repaid

Yellen:
"In order to insulate monetary policy from short-term political pressures and I can say, emphatically that partisan politics plays no role in our decisions about the appropriate stance of monetary policy....  We do not discuss politics at our meetings and we do not take politics into account in our decisions."

The Fed has to keep Congress solvent, so they politic all the time, behind the scenes, in statements, and the rest.  It is either politic or get Congress out of the currency business. 

Something is fishy about Tesla

PC World: Tesla Motors is considered one of the most cybersecurity-conscious car manufacturers in the world—among other things, it has a bug bounty program. But that doesn’t mean the software in its cars is free of security flaws.
Researchers from Chinese technology company Tencent found a series of vulnerabilities that, when combined, allowed them to remotely take over a Tesla Model S car and control its sunroof, central display, door locks and even the braking system. 
In what way did the car bot take instructions from the web?   There is only one possibility, the car owner pulled out his smart card and gave the car permission to accept a web call.  Otherwise, the web should be mechanically cut off from the bot.

So, the answer is, Musk and Tesla are deliberately ignorant about security because they have some commercial advantage to constant contact with the car.  The  Smart Bot will not initiate or accept transactions without some contract with its owner.

What is my proof?  I can sit in my 1970 Pontiac forever, listening to music on my lap top.  No one will ever make that Pontiac brake.  
Software should be able to duplicate the concept of 'not connected', after all the same geeks emulated the manila folder.  Not responding seems a bit easier. Cell phone companies have learned about not connected, they make it easy to shut off the phone.

Tuesday, September 20, 2016

Bots hunt criminals in bot world

NY, NJ bombings: Suspect charged with attempted murder of officer


The bots live in a world of many subject nodes along many predicate links, these overlapping semantic nets have hundreds of images and video. Our bot, like a NYPD detective, finds that face that was at each crime location.  He is literally a multiplying virus crawling about data  linkages in web servers.

Finding typical sub graphs in the web, a huge industry.

And who does the BOJ fool?

Bloomberg talking Japanese helicopters: Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's economic strategy relies on a weak yen to fuel exports, boost profits and end deflation, but the currency hasn't been cooperating.
Not even sub-zero interest rates have helped weaken the yen. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) in January imposed a negative rate of minus 0.1 percent on some reserves, and the yen is still up 18 percent against the dollar since the start of the year.
Even though Japan's unemployment rate of 3 percent is the lowest in over two decades, pessimistic employers aren't handing out significant raises, according to Daiwa Capital Markets economists Emily Nicol and Chris Scicluna. The Japanese economy “continues to do little more than move sideways,” they wrote in a report published Sept. 2.
That's putting pressure on Haruhiko Kuroda, the governor of the Bank of Japan, to move beyond his existing program of negative interest rates and quantitative easing. Thanks to 80 trillion yen ($786 billion) a year in purchases of state debt, the BoJ owns 38 percent of Japanese government bonds—compared to the Federal Reserve's 14 percent ownership of U.S. debt—and is on track to own half by end of next year, according to Japan Macro Advisors. All that spending is getting a diminished return, said Tom Murphy, managing partner of Family Office Research and Management in Sydney. Kuroda's quantitative easing “is losing its firepower,” he said.
Let's cut to the chase.  Japanese manufacturing is international, is trade  at its most ferocious, excepting maybe South Korea.  What is the unit of account for these corporations?  The currency insurance coin.   Japanese corporation form a major component of the currency insurance market, and it is huge.  What the corporations lose on low yen rates they make up in currency hedges.  So they skip the loop, they work directly off of neutral export/import 'coins', or a pile of liquid assets bought from the currency hedger.  Their profit and loss determined by the cost of yen volatility, which they implicitly work to suppress.

It's the partial swear


In the law somewhere, it is ruled, when the right hand is injured, then you can tell kind of the truth, not necessarily whole, maybe 3/4, depending on the hand injury.

Generations often fail to overlap


Generations overlap properly in the macro DSGE models because the assumption of equilibrilum imposed spectral constraints on the data.  Don't matter if the economist is studying an avalanche of rocks of humans.  Where the DSGE model fails is significant, failure measures the error bounds the agents are operating under. derived equilibrium.  We make up the central limit as we go, but it alway has error.

So, if you tell politicians that generations over lap properly, and the generations do not overlap, you, the economist, causes this, the graph above.  The generations adapt as if they had met the spectral requirements, via taxes and debt service, often killing off bunches in mass migrations or poverty.

Transactions can be costly, but we have to get the generations into Congress and have an overlap.  Everyone should expect about a 5% change in entitlement ins and outs.

Monday, September 19, 2016

Re-sloping my supply curve

Getting my dangerous tree removed, I know statics, I now the weight, and my friend the tree cutter under bid for the job.  But my friend just does the ground work, and sales, and he is new.  I kept bidding the price up, from $800 to  $1200.  Why? Because it is not the market price for tree cutting, it is the labor price for a skilled tree climber.  I knew I needed the climber here for the day, and I wanted to pay his labor price, his skill is in demand just before fall season.

I am doing the three way deal.  Me and the tree cutter are not ready o male a trwo color partition (he is a tenant of mine). I want his business doing well, and he needs a skilled climber.  The cutter wants to make me happy, he is bidding to buy the property, for his tree cutting business.  So me and him are not two color, and we are both really talking through each other to the climber.

Proof positive


What is this?  A California born and bred Mexican fast food place, architected to match the California missions (from 1750), including the church bell.  That bell is to us what your liberty bell is to you swampers.  This architecture, its use as a meeting place, and the adobe is pure California (well Mexico gets some credit for adobe).

Where did this Irvine California founder get the idea? From Irvine, loaded with great 'California Hispanic' food restaurants, and eat your heart out Mexico.

California sí hispana mejor que México

SmartCard offers a breadth of improvement in econ research

What SmartCard offers is a protected gateway into the bot network, in which no human can enter or have an advantage.  Direct from personal identity to complex bot transaction, unknown to any human.

So we create research coin.  Members of great wealth join, with their smart cards.  They give their banker  bots permission to share their most secret trade deals.  The banker bot collective compresses, and stores the trades at some finite precision, but does not reveal the typical sequence until five years later.  At that point, the compressed 'block chain' is sold to researchers, politicians, and investors for market price.

Political correctness in Britain

Gatestone:
  • "To use the term 'honor killing' when describing the murder of a family member -- overwhelmingly females -- due to the perpetrators' belief that they have brought 'shame' on a family normalizes murder for cultural reasons and sets it apart from other killings when there should be no distinction." — Jane Collins, MEP, UK Independence Party.
  • Voter fraud has been deliberately overlooked in Muslim communities because of "political correctness," according to Sir Eric Pickles, author of a government report on voter fraud.
  • "Not only should we raise the flag, but everybody in the Muslim community should have to pledge loyalty to Britain in schools. There is no conflict between being a Muslim and a Briton." — Khalil Yousuf, spokesman for the Ahmadiyya Muslim community.
  • Only a tiny proportion -- between five and ten percent -- of the people whose asylum applications are denied are actually deported, according to a British asylum judge, quoted in the Daily Mail.
  • Police in Telford -- dubbed the child sex capital of Britain -- were accused of covering up allegations that hundreds of children in the town were sexually exploited by Pakistani sex gangs.

The British seem confused, but that is not really the case. 

 The Brits are attempting Mark Thoma's strategy, import low wage labor to pay for senior entitlements, which are otherwise unaffordable. And, you see, when it comes to a bunch of cry baby.  thumb sucking boomers, politicians get in line.  

What they attempt is contradictory; forcing  hateful, uneducated Muslims from the  Middle East to submit to slave labor.  Stork Theory will not work.

No, he didn't bring his belt bomb


Note, no midriff bulge. This is a security judgment call, normally we request they pull up the shirt first.

Just one chink chipped away from the myth

Disneyland created Doritos as a way of recycling old tortillas


What we call Mexican food was invented by the original Hispanics who founded California.  They were not Mexicans at the height of the California mission rule in 1790; they were Original California Hispanics.

We need a safe space for California Hispanics.  Some place away from the Cali Dems.  I am thinking we take over the Deplorable Party, they got a run going.

Deranged Islamic Arab spouting nutcase arrested

In NYC.  But do not jump to conclusions, he might be Afghan.

Sunday, September 18, 2016

No kidding

VOXEUMost countries with a generous pay-as-you-go social security system and ageing demographics will need to implement significant welfare reform, such as a major cut in benefits or a significant increase in distortionary taxation. Individuals’ uncertainty about when such a policy change will occur will cause precautionary saving and changes in factor prices, affecting aggregate welfare. This column uses evidence from Japan to show that delaying welfare reform will benefit the elderly, at a long-lasting cost to the young.

So, we just figured this out? 

Did Taleb join the Deplorable Party?

The Intellectual Yet Idiot



What we have been seeing worldwide, from India to the UK to the US, is the rebellion against the inner circle of no-skin-in-the-game policymaking “clerks” and journalists-insiders, that class of paternalistic semi-intellectual experts with some Ivy league, Oxford-Cambridge, or similar label-driven education who are telling the rest of us 1) what to do, 2) what to eat, 3) how to speak, 4) how to think… and 5) who to vote for.
But the problem is the one-eyed following the blind: these self-described members of the “intelligenzia” can’t find a coconut in Coconut Island, meaning they aren’t intelligent enough to define intelligence hence fall into circularities — but their main skill is capacity to pass exams written by people like them. With psychology papers replicating less than 40%, dietary advice reversing after 30 years of fatphobia, macroeconomic analysis working worse than astrology, the appointment of Bernanke who was less than clueless of the risks, and pharmaceutical trials replicating at best only 1/3 of the time, 
Sounds like something one of us Deplorables might say. 

If immigration isn’t the problem, then what is?.

Sex, or the lack of procreation.  You see, Professor Thoma, we discovered some years ago that humans have to have sex, and this applies to immigrants.  Sex and family are expensive, but without it we do not have people.  That was the conclusion of the study.

Your plan is to make family formation very expensive with entitlement taxes, then import ready to utilize families who have not been so burdened in the past.  You have it backwards.

Was Gray Davis mentally disabled or hidden in a bubble?

LA Times:
W
ith the stroke of a pen, California Gov. Gray Davis signed legislation that gave prison guards, park rangers, Cal State professors and other state employees the kind of retirement security normally reserved for the wealthy.
More than 200,000 civil servants became eligible to retire at 55 — and in many cases collect more than half their highest salary for life. California Highway Patrol officers could retire at 50 and receive as much as 90% of their peak pay for as long as they lived.
They were off — by billions of dollars — and taxpayers will bear the consequences for decades to come.Proponents sold the measure in 1999 with the promise that it would impose no new costs on California taxpayers. The state employees’ pension fund, they said, would grow fast enough to pay the bill in full.

No, he was following Jerry Brown's lead, this is all asymmetric information, these politicians spend their entire career in a protected information bubble. 

President Trump


Government needs a long field in which to kick can

Sumner talking about the Bank of Japan and 'easing':

At least three in this camp favor sticking with the plan, convinced that both huge government bond purchases and negative rates are still effective in forcing private money to flow into riskier assets. This faction thinks curbing those purchases, or even tinkering with the buying formula in a way that markets might perceive as tightening, could send the yen soaring, according to people familiar with its views, which is the opposite of the policy's intended effect. That could hit corporate profits and the stock market.
Risk is the perception that the planned liquidity events will not happen.  This happens when the private sector is out hunting smaller unique membership sets to provide some specialize combinations of input.  So firms have the risk of re-quantization costs, unanticipated, and requiring more debt; and a longer sequence look back, meaning a longer time to completion, means kicking the can.

  The amount of accuracy to cover governments current obligations, over a long period, is as much as impossible.  Accuracy is counted as our ability to marshal small groups finding small advanages along the way, a whole lot of them.  They make the path smooth going forward, and these small unique groups suffer large government costs.

Back to natural rate

Roger Farmer doesn't like it, but he really thinks it is a computed result of the agents, an outcome.  In that case he is right.

The natural rate is one over the maximum set of unique school girls the economy an generate.  It is the minimum surplus transactions  until can rotate back into the sequence and maintain a unique set.  But we agents warp our surface to make it so, the natural rate solidifies our quantization, keeping excess liquidity to a minimum that spurious re-quantization cannot take place.

If we assume an adaptable, dual queuing system, then we measure liquidity events (change to loan or deposit), innovations to be organized into a two complement generator of some precision. You can find it by getting a well partitioned savings and loan value from a unconstrained currency banker, then looking up the hypoerbolic angle getting the x and 1/x.

I think the combinatorics well tell you a nasty secret, if money does not re-quantize, then it might be thousands of years at low interest rates, under the current central banking law.  The federal system, we currently have,is based on the assumption that about 20  million of us can  organize into a few unique groups.  Its the magic Walrus, we have to all know the finite set of paths forward in each of our separate classes;  then we can always find the sufficient prime sets we belong to.


Our finite block chain process cannot maintain infinite  precision. We always need to slightly off from Shannon stability.   If you view the statistics of the difference between customers and clerks, thatdifferenc distribution shows the probability of a loss by he grocer.    He has to lose money, now and then, so that he can observe the next possible quantization levels.  Price elasticity is a computed outcome, a local stable point between current inflow and outflow.  When the grocer loses a bit on a product line, he knows the income flow sequence is mis-matched to his customer outflow sequence, hence its inventory surplus will wander, actually appear to have a unit root.  So, the grocer maintains enough liquidity to support re-quantization, over come the 'loop' while the Shannon  limit locks you in to the current configuration, assuming there is not loop.

Urban insanity make insurance unaffordable

String Of Deadly Arsons Strike Chicago Leaving 1 Dead And Dozens Homeless

The cost of managing street insanity is way too high.   The neighborhoods will likely be abandoned.

The California bottleneck

Waiver wanted

In Washington, D.C., meanwhile, a who’s who of members of Congress hailing from California tried to flex their muscle around California’s unlikely request that the federal government allow unlawful and undocumented immigrants in state to access health benefits under Obamacare. “In a letter announced Wednesday, 37 members of California’s congressional delegation asked Treasury Secretary Jack Lew and Health and Human Services Secretary Sylvia Burwell to accept California’s request for a waiver that would allow the state to offer health care to an estimated 50,000 undocumented immigrants,” TPM reported.
“The letter is just the latest in the fight to expand health care coverage to California’s undocumented population. In June, California Gov. Jerry Brown signed a bill passed by the state’s Legislature that allowed California’s undocumented population to buy their own health insurance on the state’s exchange, Covered California. However, a special federal waiver — a 1332 waiver — is needed before the state is allowed to enact its law.”
It hasn’t been clear whether President Obama could be moved to take action before the end of his term in office. He has already wound up under immense personal pressure to convince insurers to remain committed to the Affordable Care Act’s health care exchanges, despite a growing sense in industry that doing so will be harmful.

In the year 2020, if not sooner, these issues are decided between California, Texas and Mexico; before they hit DC.  Nothing happens back there unless you get prior agreement from the SouthWest, a real agglomeration.

Robot discovers theory of humanity

(ANTIMEDIA) In June, Anti-Media covered a strange story of a self-learning robot escaping its testing area in the Russian city of Perm. A couple months later, the same robot, a ‘Promobot’ (promotional robot), escaped again. We let it slide to avoid being redundant. But on Wednesday, the same robot made its third getaway, and this time, it was arrested at a political rally in Moscow.

Humans are scaredy pooh of robots!

Pissing class will be mandatory

This is progress: Philadelphia mass transit to try out paint that ‘makes urine spray back on the offender’

It is one of those parenting things, toilet training.  It extends beyond having the toddler crap and piss in the back yard, you have to teach him the elements of sewage systems, and city drainage.

Who would lose them?

If Football Teams Heeded Science and Reason, They Would Win a Lot More Games


Didn't read the article, but we can have fun with the title.  We have a Nash equilibrium issue, this is most definitely a surface with a universally observable peak.  So, in theory, this will not be saddle back mountain where teams are confused aout the path forward.  They have to come to near Nash equilibrium, but never quite there.  Why never?  This system enforces re-quantization, so Nash suffers the cost of quantization and the path forward is herky jerky.

So, not every team can follow the strategy in the same game.  The effects of enforced quantization noise forces one to two teams on the field to revert to old tactics, one team will have been randomly shoved down the side of the mountain peak, by time and noise.  That team to pay the restructuring fee, real time.

In terms of surface, he aggregates discover and create the surface, forcing it into a sharp quantized peak and season's end, called the Super Bowl

What about the law of Large numbers?

Over the season, a measure of strategy dictates one form, the ventral tendency pointing to the form..  But, when the game clock winds down, the samples on the field come much faster than the samples over the season, there is a spectral mismatch.  The game clock skews the sample rate as it forces re-quant, there is a finite time, over all, and that stresses the surface.

George 'Charlie Manson' Soros



Saturday, September 17, 2016

Who defines nation, Dani Rodrick?

Dani Rodrik takes on globalization:


We need to rescue globalization not just from populists, but also from its cheerleaders. ... Simply put, we have pushed economic globalization too far — toward an impractical version that we might call “hyperglobalization.” ...
The world he describes has adequately defined nations, and their trade surplus will bounce around zero over the medium term.  He mentions tow big ones, China and Russia, both of which are really multi-nations, as is the USA.

How does Dani expect a single group in DC regulate the terms of trade for some six different economies in the USA, with two languages, three time zones, four different founding philosophies,, a massive set of ports on two coasts, managed by four or five nations.and our major trading partner, Mexico left out.  Our trading system starts in Panama, and end at the north pole crossing.

Nor does he mention that with trade balances hovering near zero, where does the USA get a steady stream of creditors to cover our DC debt?

The sum total of all the complicated fixes for our predicament sort of can be solved with one change, abolish the US Senate.

How did I get this first?

A VoxEU study which confirms my recent self observations of networking and consumption:


The second model is the ‘keeping up with the Joneses’ model, in which individual utility depends on the average consumption of peers (and not necessarily the visible one). The third model is one where risks are shared among members of the reference group, which creates correlation among their consumptions with peer effects being, effectively, a spurious manifestation of the risk sharing agreements. We find empirical support for a ‘keeping up with the Joneses’ model – based on our empirical analyses, we can rule out models of conspicuous consumption as well as full or partial risk sharing. Hence, our results point towards an inter-temporal distortion of the spending profile rather than a tilting of consumption towards luxury and conspicuous goods.

I wasn't first, I was a blogger following the debate, these folks were first but they had to do the detailed study.  

This is all about an eight year effort in science to get at that boundary between combinatorics and Newton's grammar.  It is happening in botany, economics, physics, neurology, and fundamental graph theory.  In botany they study root and branch formation as an adaptable network.  MIT was doing some of the more direct network theories, but the new math uses entropy maximization, (reducing redundancy)  to understand economies of scale in queueing over finite networks.  Agents try to close the network loops  When agents do this, they create a typical consumption semi-random sequence, the set of baskets that keep the network stable.

Friday, September 16, 2016

I learned an economic secret from my grocer

From India, a grocer mathematician.  I saw that he had done the 1.99, 2.94, 3.99 stuff with the prices.  I commented, and he quizzed me, I suggested  a reason, I got it wrong.

When he delivers a nickel and penny back to the customer, that formally seals the deal; the customer accepts the change, he can't complain later. And this is a better use of small change, when the alternative is packing it up in rolls.   The change acts like a speed bump for every transaction.

I get to name this the gateway law, the name of the store.  But the store is meant to be just that, a gateway, you transact, in and out, then continue on.  I guess the road was an oldie trail at some point.

How original is California?

OK, I revberal my ae for this, but I grew up a Catholic kid in Bakersfield, and attended a lot of Catholic churches.  One of them was an adobe, abut 75 years old, and it served the original California ethnics around here, these folks went back four generations, pre civil war.  This community was likely an outgrowth of the Pacific mission system.  They were Hispanic, had inter-married with some Mexicans, but mostly Mexicans who came up with the missionaries..  The Catholic church was big, the Fransiscans still had the best universities.  Even today, attend a great university at Santa Clara, and go see remnants of the original ourt yard walls from pre-civil war.  And that remnant was second generation, likely.  The Spanish missionaries set up the California pacific trading and metropolis system, as it is; except for the gold rush influence.

Now this California system remained fairly dominant up until 1920,  We did not get frog marched into the union until WW2, really.  Our true participation in the union goes from 1932 until 1980, only 60 years.  New York;s participation is 250, and more years in the union, they were the union.  But in 1790, the California colonies were as advanced as anything back east, but it was blocked by the South American route.

How about Texas?

Folks, they never really joined, they are always Texans first..  And here is another note.  About 40% of the North American economy is the triangular trade between Mexico, Texas and California; fueled by the Pacific access to Asia, and the gulf oil system.  It extends to Louisiana, and almost up to Vancouver.  Self referential, two of the three trade flows will have a hand in the value added.

The Swamp will be swamped, sooner than later, and now is the best time to think it over.


American Deplorable Party convention nominates obscure real estate agent from New York


How do I handle supply and demand?

I have three grocers, all in biking range.  They have about twenty bikers, just like me in one partition of their schiolgirls. They measure my flow, rate and basket size.  We, all twenty of us, make slight alterations in our schedule and basket size to equalize transaction  costs.  Once we 'get it', we quantize; fix the recipes that we use to fill our baskets.  When cash balances get a bit screwy, one way or the other, we get off my butts and change things around.  But getting off our butts is quantization cost.

I do it on a bike, a Bianchi Simplice.

Talking heads are not bright bulbs

Efficiency, Trump can sell hotel rooms while being president. I like the idea of a part time president, make the Swamp wait while he sells a few hotels.

Zero Hedge: The major television networks refused Friday to use or distribute footage of Donald Trump’s “press” tour of his new Washington, D.C., hotel because the Republican nominee didn’t allow reporters to attend.
Trump had just finished playing the cable networks, luring them into carrying 20 minutes of praise from veterans before finally admitting that President Barack Obama was born in the United States. That very brief admission came after he had fueled the lie of birtherism for the past five years. Trump then left the stage without taking questions that journalists surely had about that long-running crusade and his repeated false claim that Hillary Clinton had started the racist birther movement.The Republican nominee next led a tour of his new hotel without his press pool, the small group of journalists designated to follow the candidate at an event and provide details for the larger press corps. The campaign allowed visuals of the hotel tour by permitting a photographer and a cameraperson to come along. But they didn’t allow the designated print reporter or ABC News’ Candace Smith, who was physically prevented from fulfilling her role as the TV pool reporter.

Horse Manure Jason Furman

Beyond Antitrust: The Role of Competition Policy in Promoting Inclusive Growth:


Conclusion
Recent trends in concentration in a range of industries suggest decreasing levels of competition, and many concerning macroeconomic trends seem to suggest that this decrease not just due to increases in economies of scale, but rather that increases in barriers to entry are playing a role. For the sake of both consumers and the macroeconomy as a whole, the Administration has used and will continue to use public policy to address these concerns. Increasing competition has the potential to drive faster productivity and output growth, faster real wage growth, and increased equity. We have moved forward in areas such as intellectual property and patent reform, increasing worker bargaining power, and reforming occupational licensing and land use regulations. While these are examples of positive changes, our work in promoting competition does not end here. The President’s Executive Order will continue to encourage agencies to develop creative solutions for increasing competition by soliciting new ideas on a regular basis. In considering the future of competition policy, we must also keep in mind the way in which changes in the economy, such as digitization, will affect how we evaluate competition effectively.
The Obama administration is accelerating concentration by aggregating up another large entitlement in the medical industry.  The Obama administration could never cover its interest payments without work arounds by the debt cartel. And the Obama administration, and Blue States in general, encourage concentration of union power, especially in government where it is terribly inefficient.

Jason Furman should either be quiet or shut up.

Mark, you suffer penis envy, very unusual

Trump can't cure it, but give me a shot. I charge a million an hour. Your case is unusual, we usually find it in women like Hillary and Sotomayor.

Business Insider:
Mark Cuban offered Donald Trump $10 million to let the billionaire businessman interview the Republican nominee for four hours about his policies.
Cuban, the owner of the NBA's Dallas Mavericks and star of ABC's "Shark Tank," presented the proposition in a scathing tweetstorm.

Fewer new firms

Report from Michelle Meyer, US economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Pretty bad news when start ups  decline