Games with cause and effect

• Looking at this graph of real gdp growth, starting in 1985, we can say that the growth rate has likely dropped a point over the period. 
• With a bit of observation, we might say these drops in growth sort of coincided with the blue bars. We might also observe that the blue bars coincide with presidential regime changes. 
•  Now, phase grouping tells us strongly that blue bars, regime changes, lower growth, and credit cycles seem to be a group. 
•  That we have such a crowded group strongly hints that the cause is in that group, there is no external integrating variable causing low growth.