Tuesday, September 20, 2016

Generations often fail to overlap


Generations overlap properly in the macro DSGE models because the assumption of equilibrilum imposed spectral constraints on the data.  Don't matter if the economist is studying an avalanche of rocks of humans.  Where the DSGE model fails is significant, failure measures the error bounds the agents are operating under. derived equilibrium.  We make up the central limit as we go, but it alway has error.

So, if you tell politicians that generations over lap properly, and the generations do not overlap, you, the economist, causes this, the graph above.  The generations adapt as if they had met the spectral requirements, via taxes and debt service, often killing off bunches in mass migrations or poverty.

Transactions can be costly, but we have to get the generations into Congress and have an overlap.  Everyone should expect about a 5% change in entitlement ins and outs.

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