The Fed has already raised rates

The one year has been above .5% for a couple of months, and the Fed is not buying short term securities, or otherwise attempting the twist.  That is a raise in rates.  It is not some metaphysical philosophy, the Fed might 'raise rates' whatever that means.  The Fed is either buying or selling short term securities, and right now it is mostly selling.  That is the answer, and that answer sets  up our expectations, philosophies and anxieties.