Wednesday, November 30, 2016

Professor Verlinde

The boy who put Einstein in his proper position.

Erik must have been Catholic, only Catholic brothers would plot to prove God unobservable. You see, oh horrors, I suspect that dimension N works fine for us, as long as a trace of N+1 remains.  But that strongly implies that dimension N+2 is unobservable.

But I couldn't find it, are these kids Catholic. I am ready to bet.

Another smart card!

The Merkel: Hardware wallets are secure devices that store the private keys (the unlock mechanism that gives control over the token balances of a public address) in a secure environment, i.e. the device’s flash memory. Storing this information in dedicated equipment is one of the most secure ways to hold any cryptocurrency.
With a hardware wallet, a user can authorize transactions in any computer without having to worry about  malware intercepting the private key.
KeepKey offers an innovative hardware wallet, featuring a 3″ OLED screen, a single button to authorize transactions, an aluminum case to house the electronics, and a hardware-based random number generator.
The Merkel Tree is a kind of graph,, organized by time of arrival.  Used as he format of the BTC block chain, go back far enough and you can guarantee an honest bit coin to some guaranteed limit. Go all the way back and get a full guarantee.

But, I digress.  Coin technology had a smart card, now KeepKey.


KeepKey will be keeping an eye out for the evolution of the technology, slim chip format, plastic packaging.  That is about here.

What we need is a way to put these into auto trade, make sure they understand the trading pit concept. Sort of the next step in the Redneck plan.

How about a python interpreter in this thing? Minimal requirement, maybe 100 kwords? 

Fintech trading sites are banks

BTC News about a small theft at Loanbase:
These hacking and theft incidents are not new in the bitcoin world, as several sites have also been victim to malware or phishing attacks. In Loanbase’s case, the hackers were able to access the site’s SQL database and might’ve leaked or used sensitive user information such as email addresses, names, and phone numbers.
Earlier this year, bitcoin exchange Cryptsy also admitted that it suffered a hacking attack that led to even larger losses of 13,000 bitcoin and around 300,000 litecoin. This was accomplished through an IRC backdoor inserted into a bitcoin wallet code, making it act like a Trojan and take control of the site.
Loanbase clarified that these hackers were not able to access bitcoin wallets themselves and cited that they will provide more details on how their WordPress blog had a security loophole.
Users have been requested to change their passwords and update their 2FA to ensure that login information taken by the hackers will no longer be valid once the website is back up.
Two worlds colliding, the idea that someone else made a crypto currency and someone else made an open internet.  Ultimately, without even being conscious, we want to 'login' to the vault. We are not malicious, we are sitting at the edge of two conflicting technologies. 

How fast is the $140 billion due?

A lot of kids were hiding at mom and dad's while borrowing school money. It might just all be due fairly soon.  
Its been eight years and even MIT brick layers  eventually graduate.

Fintech is not a bubble

The new software trading companies ae building value as they build their trading codes.  Most  realize the end point will be a high performance sand box, and the market does the quantum leap.  It is a wait, wait really for the bankers to come to terms.  Ultimately yhe banker gives the final approval on security.  Most fintech firms know that means end to end, tamper proof, encrypted,verifiable,  biometric bond, with honest digits. When that happens, transaction cost drop two orders, and transaction time and space increase by ten fold. It is destiny, trading pits keep the accounts in balance.

Almost duplicating BitCoin security for SmartCard

The original BitCoin paper

I read is to compare, step by step, how the card security is as secure as the virtual coin, thus allowing the individual card to support honest exchange..

If the card key values were secure in a block chain, then, like bit coin, there is a legit first node.  produced at the fab as a transaction, time stamped, and linked into the block chain, Validating a card as all the same rules as validating a BitCoin transaction, go back and scan the block chain to locate the proper card entry.  The card itself can give a hint to start.

But there is no ongoing distributed set of block chain assembly, except within the closely guarded machine at he fab.  Otherwise, Bitcoin and SmartCard work like cash, if the store clerk knows the customer, there is no hurry to verify.  The difference is that SmartCard, like cash, an swap value with only a tap sequence between two peers.

In fact, of the four, gold, paper, bit coin and smart card; smart card is the far superior;

  • offers the simplest exchange (no terminal needed if you like to tap), 
  • mostly the safest. It is easier to impurify gold coins than counterfeit a smart card.   
  • lowest transaction costs.
  • supports digital trade, like bit coin

Dysfunctional parenting

Parents can afford to educate their kids.  That would be a dysfunction.  Lack of money? No, lack of smart parents. It is a dysfunction, if you are a parent and your child is badly educated, you are dysfunctional.  
Maybe you are confused, and thought the Dills Act, or NCLB would educate your child? They did not, that makes you a dysfunctional parent by confusion.  What ever the cause, you are a parent in a true blue (or red)  state and you cannot educate your child, you must be dysfunctional, it is the definition of dysfunctional.
LA Times: California faces a statewide teacher shortage because so many are leaving the job and so few are entering the profession, according to a new survey released Wednesday. And most school districts surveyed said the problem is getting worse.
The staffing problem is both wide and deep, with 75% of more than 200 districts surveyed reporting difficulties with filling positions and low-income urban and rural areas hit hardest.

Baby boomers retiring is my guess

A Tale of Two Jobs Markets looks at racial disparity in jobs.  But it may not be what it seems 
A striking picture of this lopsided reality is evident from the shares of the total job gains since the November 2007 pre-recession peak in employment. As the chart shows, of the five-million-plus net jobs added since that high-water mark nine years ago, some 56% went to Hispanics (rightmost green bar), about quadruple their 14% share of the labor force at the time (rightmost blue bar). Meanwhile, 29% of those job gains went to Asians, i.e., about six times their 5% share of the labor force (second set of bars from left). Moreover, 25% of those job gains went to Blacks, i.e., more than double their 11% share of the labor force (third set of bars from left).
In sharp contrast, Whites, who made up over 81% of the labor force in 2007 (leftmost blue bar) accounted for negative 9% of the net job gains (red bar). While the percentage shares for these four groups add up to more than 100% because White Hispanics are double-counted as both White and Hispanic, and Black Hispanics are double-counted as both Black and Hispanic, the reality is stark. Whites actually have fewer jobs than nine years ago, while Hispanics, Blacks and Asians together gained all of the net jobs added, and more.
This may be a case of baby boomers retiring, with few kids.  

Bitcoin Core is a smart move

The BitCoin core group discusses individual validation for transactions, rather than rely on miners:  Although BitCoin is the best we have, it still does not have local validation, miners do the job. Hence here is a residual unpriced agglomeration of  miners.  So, have each individual act as a miner, prove for itself, over the shortest path, that the counterparty really has 'sewn up' block entry.  Note, this is not necessarily 'price' fraud prevention, it is 'gain from bunching' prevention, and boils down to a longer more accurate look by the miners who have the singleton request queue.  

Here is the idea from the Core:: 

Unlike other wallets, Bitcoin Core does enforce the rules—so if the miners and banks change the rules for their non-verifying users, those users will be unable to pay full validation Bitcoin Core users like you.
As long as there are many non-verifying users who want to be able to pay Bitcoin Core users, miners and others know they can’t effectively change Bitcoin’s rules.
But what if not enough non-verifying users care about paying Bitcoin Core users? Then it becomes easy for miners and banks to take control of Bitcoin, likely bringing to an end this 7 year experiment in decentralized currency.
If you think Bitcoin should remain decentralized, the best thing you can do is validate every payment you receive using your own personal full node such as Bitcoin Core.
We don’t know how many full validation users and business are needed, but it’s possible that for each person or business who validates their own transactions, Bitcoin can remain decentralized even if there are ten or a hundred other non-verifying users. If this is the case, your small contribution can have a large impact towards keeping Bitcoin decentralized.

Now, validation of a Bitcoin, if needed, happens locally to the trading pit , but it is going to be thousands to possibly ten thousand transactions per second. 

Our goal is to  validate the Smart Card once, upon entering the pit environment, then protecting that smart card  thread as validated and verifiable.


"It’s not a good situation," said Mayor Bill de Blasio. "It’s going to cost the city a lot of money."
Days before that, Mayor Bill de Blasio delivered some worrying news.
The city's pension funds were not meeting expectations. The city would have to prop them up.
"It's going to be almost three-quarters of a billion dollars – $722 million over the next few years combined," de Blasio said. "So it’s going to be a real negative impact on our budget."
That's because the city's approximately $170 billion pension fund grew just 1.5 percent in the last fiscal year, which ended in June.

And the economy there cannot depend on Asian teal estate deals after their bubble burst.  Most of their economy remains finance and most of that is regulation.  Now they are unsustainable, the Rust Belt wave looms in front and homeless in LA is the end point.

What does the veteran remember about coming home?

The stewardess and her 'perfect personality'

Following chatter that former Alaska governor Sarah Palin was in line for Interior Secretary, ABC News reports that President-Elect Trump is considering her to lead Veterans Affairs.

Sarah you will do a great job, the vets will love you!

Yet another telephone eats your coins

Anyone running an older version of the Android operating system, be warned: Malware is infecting 13,000 Android devices every day, putting at risk the private details of more than 1 million Google accounts.
That's according to cybersecurity software company Check Point, which discovered a new piece of malware called "Gooligan" that's infecting Android phones and stealing email addresses.
Users who download Gooligan-infected apps or click links in phishing messages are being exposed to the malware, which allows attackers to access sensitive information from Google apps like Gmail, Drive, and Photos.
Once attackers hack into the device, they're buying apps on the Google Play store and writing reviews posing as the phone's owner, Check Point says. 

OK, do we see why we need the Rednecks in  charge?  
The same bozos that want to store your dough-re-me in  telephones are the ones begging Treasury for monopoly control in the Swamp. Rednecks spot this stuff, our necks glow red in anger.

Should we be more concerned?

Business Insider: This research has broader significance beyond the auto-loan market. We've previously reported at length on the worrying state of US consumer finances.
According to UBS research, 65%, 36%, and 22% of lower-, middle-, and higher-income cohorts are "stressed." That means their income falls below or barely covers their expenses. And almost one in five stressed households, or 18%, agreed or strongly agreed with the likelihood of a default over the next year.
When these stressed households were asked what debt they were most likely to default on, auto loans ranked third, behind credit cards and student debt.
Hmm...  OK, we are running a bit red,

Autos, still they are not at threat of a re-quant, the auto used car industry has priced in default rates and should be on the graph ready to move cars.

Credit card rates for weak balance sheets are up, up enough to cover their second place in the default line.

Student loans will kill us, however.  There is an increasing number of kids hiding in college, running up unpayable debt that the Swamp will need to cover. It is a huge number, and there is a conflicting  public sector bailout competing for Texas taxes. We may not be able to make a deal here.


British politicians confused about maps

Bloomberg: A group of 81 British lawmakers have written to European Union President Donald Tusk to demand an agreement is reached on rights for Britons living in the EU and for Europeans in the U.K. before Brexit talks are formally opened.
The letter asks Tusk to add reciprocal rights for citizens to the agenda for a European leaders meeting on Dec. 15 and claims there is agreement across most EU states on the issue. Michel Barnier, who will lead negotiations for the EU, infuriated the group when he insisted talks cannot start on any aspect of Brexit until triggering Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, which formally starts the process of exiting the bloc. “No negotiation without notification,” Barnier tweeted on Nov. 21.
Here is a clue.   Walk backwards from where you are, British Lawmaker, then look at where you walked from.  That is the capital building of your country, get it?

Who is making loans to sub-prime auto buyers?

Liberty Street: As we noted in an earlier blog post, one feature of our data set is that it enables us to infer whether auto loans were made by a bank or credit union, or by an auto finance company. The latter are typically made through a car manufacturer or dealer using Equifax’s lender classification. Although it remains true that banks and credit unions comprise about half of the overall outstanding balance of newly originated loans, the vast majority of subprime loans are originated by auto finance companies. The chart below disaggregates the $1.135 trillion of outstanding auto loans by credit score and lender type, and we see that 75 percent of the outstanding subprime loans were originated by finance companies. 
The emphasis is mine. Should we worry? A little, but auto finance companies are much better at re-possession and resales of used cars, traditional banks don't do that much.  But it has to be clear to investors that this is a partial measure of  'leasing'  rates as many of these cars will recycle according to  plan.

Do not spout the usual horse manure at your first press conference

U.S. Treasury Secretary-nominee Steven Mnuchin outlined an economic agenda aimed at almost doubling the growth rate of the current expansion, saying he will boost jobs by making tax reform his overriding priority.
Mnuchin, speaking Wednesday on CNBC alongside Wilbur Ross, the billionaire investor who is President-elect Donald Trump’s pick to be Commerce secretary, said tax cuts for businesses and the middle class, fewer regulations, infrastructure investment and bilateral trade deals can help the world’s largest economy achieve 3 percent to 4 percent growth. The U.S. expansion has averaged 2.1 percent at an annual rate since the end of the 2007-2009 recession.
“We’re going to cut corporate taxes which will bring huge amounts of jobs back to the United States,” he said. “There will be a big tax cut for the middle class. But any tax cuts we have for the upper class will be offset by less deductions that will pay for it.”
Complete horseshit, and most of us know it.  
This is from a Munkin, and Liz Warren was right about them, they are dunces; the most delusional of the group, still fully a Magic Walrus worshipers. 

In doubt the debt cartel wants Steve around for long.  

Here is Steve in his prior career

Trump sum fallacy

Our new secretary of commerce thinks that he can measure bilateral trade with Mexico.  No, about 40% of that trade is tri-lateral, within the California,Mexico, and Texas loop.  That portion does not add directly.
Yahoo: But Ross, who as Commerce Secretary would lead any trade negotiations, describes a more benign approach. On Mexico, he points out that the United States accounts for 80% of Mexican exports, which gives the United States plenty of leverage to lean on its southern neighbor to buy more American-made products. “If I’m a guy’s 80% customer, is he going to fight with me?” Ross says. “No, he’s going to negotiate.”
The goal, he says, wouldn’t be to punish US companies that produce goods in Mexico, but to reduce America’s $60 billion trade deficit with Mexico. That can be done two ways: by Mexico exporting less to the United States or buying more from it. Either could be accomplished, he says, without dismantling the North American Free Trade Agreement
And, we end up with a weird situation, Mexico leads the Southwest in negotiations with the Yawkers, Mexico has to represent the tri-lateral arrangement. 

I become delusional

Zero Hedge: The US Dollar index is soaring, up most in a week as OPEC events and the London Fix ripple through FX markets. Yen, Euro, and Aussie Dollar are all plunging...
All I said was that the American shale industry became productive by finding a solution to the OPEC dis-equilibrium. I didn't mean we should all run out and spike the dollar! But reality sets in, it wasn't me, I was just quoting known truths that someone else figured out.

Another pension run

Hundreds of city employees continue to take advantage of the DROP pension program each year, according to a recent city analysis.
As of mid-November, 613 employees this year had received a combined $101.6 million in lump-sum DROP payments as they retired from the city. The average payment was $165,813.
Since the Deferred Retirement Option Plan was created in 1999, the city has paid $1.4 billion to thousands of city employees.
DROP allows employees to pick a retirement date up to four years in the future, then accumulate pension payments in an interest-bearing account while still earning their salary. They then collect a lump sum upon retirement. Their pensions are frozen at the level earned at the time they signed up for the program, which was meant to be cost-neutral to the city.

Silicon Valley Socialists are back in DC

The Hill: A coalition of major tech companies — including Google, Amazon and Apple — is calling on President-elect Donald Trump to appoint a Treasury undersecretary for technology.
Financial Innovation Now (FIN), which also includes PayPal and Intuit, is asking the Trump administration to appoint regulators and promote policies that will bolster the use of financial technology (FinTech) as it gains popularity and prominence.
And I am sure California's affirmative action appointee, Diane, is right by their side guaranteeing their wealth and intellectual property fakes.
What do they want?
They want Congress to control financials such that the 'letter_to_janet()' call is mandatory, and only their software can make the call.  Rednecks reject the fraud entirely and urge all voters to push for secure smart card.

Coase would agree

 Libor is the inter bank lending rate, but it is self computed by the landing banks, in aggregate.  Ripe for rigging?  Sure, but the rigging was a traded variable, it was priced, because each party engaged in rigging with a similar smooth measuring tool. A tool that can estimate the total amount of price rigging. Hence, we get Pit.boss = Coase.  The pit boss is a price fixer, but all the Bid/Ask singletons are prepared after fair scanning of the order book.

Matt Levine on the Libor 'fix'

One contrarian thing that I sometimes think about the big Libor scandal is that you can analyze it as a weird market. Some traders at some banks had interest-rate swaps that would profit if Libor was higher, so they pressured their Libor submitters to make up a higher Libor. Other traders at other banks had the other sides of those swaps, so they pressured their submitters to make up a lower Libor. The Libor rate that was ultimately set represented sort of a phantom clearing price for interest-rate derivatives; it may not have been a fair representation of banks' borrowing costs, but it was an imperfect approximate result of market forces. 

Shale producers keep the dollar up

Shale producers know the score, and they are using technology and automation. OPEC is an attempted price fixer, so we have a dual equilibrium.  It is shale on/off, the US is the marginal producer, the super pricing power.

Shale oil production, in Texas and North Dakota is what drove employment for many early years of the cycle since 2008.

What does this tell us about productivity?

We are productive when we can close the loop.  The dual equilibrium is a redundant loop, a bulge that rolls between OPEC and American shale.  Shale producers can run the loop efficiently, effectively closing it.   They have the stats on that loop nailed, so Ito is happy and shale folks can do smooth math

Your X axis is reasonable enough to get on a bankers curve, it mostly properly indexes events as smoothly as any other X axis, the shale guys are now running in Amber, usingh Nick's Red/Green scale.

They can treat their supply can delivery chain as a compressible fluid in the model. That makes their balance sheet stable, it is not constantly re-quantized. A stable probability graph more precisely predicts the flow of goodies, and that is wealth.

Tuesday, November 29, 2016

Romney hearts Yawker

"What I've seen through these discussions I've had with President-elect Trump, as well as what we've seen in his speech on the night of his victory, as well as the people he's selected as part of his transition — all of those things combined give me increasing hope that President-elect Trump is the man who can lead us to that better future."

Here's your mental defect

Here are nine of the most shocking alleged secrets Remini revealed about Scientology in the AMA:

1. The church considers Tom Cruise its "messiah."

Remini: "Parishioners believe that [Cruise] is single-handedly changing the planet because that is what the 'Church' is telling them."

Obama leaving a winner

The US economy grew 3.2% in the third quarter, according to newly revised government figures. That’s just three-tenths of a percentage point short of Donald Trump’s goal for growth, which is 3.5%.
Employers have created nearly 2.4 million jobs during the last 12 months. Donald Trump’s goal: 2.5 million new jobs per year. Again, we’re almost there.
Trump, the incoming president, campaigned on a litany of complaints about the economy’s performance under President Obama during the last 8 years. He repeatedly called the Obama economy “disastrous” and a “total failure.” Yet Trump now stands to inherit an economy that’s gathering steam and could make his first year or two in office a new standard for prosperity.
Trump supporters argue that recent economic news—almost all of it upbeat—is due largely to the fact that Trump won the presidential election and is now generating new hope about an economic revival. But it’s easy to break down the latest developments to determine which predate the election and which come after. The following updates were all published recently but refer to periods before the election, when most polls predicted Hillary Clinton would be the likely winner:

But our fate is now in the fate of some deficit loving twerp from Wisconsin. 

OK, I accept the argument...

Zero Hedge on a potential Treasury official:

What makes Allison's candidacy especially notable is that he happens to be a prominent critic of the Federal Reserve, as well as an advocate of the gold standard. Allison has said his “long-term ambition” for monetary policy “would be to get rid of the Federal Reserve and get back to a private banking system.” He also accurately portrayed the Fed by saying that it is “a scary organization because there’s no control."
In a 2014 paper authored by Allison for the Cato Journal, he said he "would get rid of the Federal Reserve because the volatility in the economy is primarily caused by the Fed." Allison said that simply allowing the market to regulate itself would be preferable to the Fed harming the stability of the financial system.
"When the Fed is radically changing the money supply, distorting interest rates, and over-regulating the financial sector, it makes rational economic calculation difficult," Allison wrote. "Markets do form bubbles, but the Fed makes them worse."

But I think it is not in the hands of Congress anymore.  There is only one new technology to replace money, it has been selected, and Congress can't do much about it anyway. 

An opposite prediction

Druckenmiller became an overnight bull on hopes the Trump administration would unleash a fiscal stimulus-based  period of growth for the economy, with a a “large bet on economic growth." He also told CNBC that "I’m short bonds, Bunds, Italian bonds, U.S. bonds” a reflection of his expectation of higher deficits and stronger growth.
Fast forward to today, when Stan Druckenmiller spoke at the Robin Hood Investors Conference in Brooklyn, repeated he is bullish on the American economy following the U.S. election, and anticipates a much stronger dollar and higher bond yields. Druckenmiller joined Jeff Gundlach in predicting that US 10Y yields may rise to 6% over the next year or two

Emphasis from Zero Hedge. That ten year number will ultimately be applied to all government debt, the Senate pays the ten year rate. The interest costs will  be something around a trillion per year, from the current 360 billion, at last look. Congress will freeze, as they have done so for three out of the last five presidential regimes. We will be right back at austerity, thank goodness.

Druckenmiller needs to examine possible volatility between the now and his compound growth scenario.  The Swamp moves more like a blob of protoplasm, and this blob has to squeeze through a narrow rate corridor for a decade or more; else it's the drunken pilot.

Ten year yield hits resistance

That is what I watched lately, how sustainable is a 2.4% ten year rate, and we seem stuck at 2.31%, I am convinced 2.5% is our upper limit.

The resistance comes from bankers, Schumer, the conservative senators; not the twerp from Wisconsin, and these folks are tampering the spending enthusiasm in the Swamp.  It is a precise calculation, actually, the conservatives have a finite base of discretionary programs that cannot be cut, a hard red line.  Most of this is small earmark like legislation, block transfers, and defense goodies.

In the ix are head bankers from GS,JPM, and the rest.  They got assistants with lap tops.  There are the new treasury appointees in the mix, along woth  current.  The advisory committee is set up.

It is kind of  market like, mostly a negotiation, a convention of agents assigned to sling government debt.  No one in the group is happy about the prospect of a large helicopter flight, and the five years of price distortion we get.  But a lot of transactions have to take place before they clinch a price, they may not close a deal.  Then it is back to the twerp and the debt deluge.

Erdogan been busy

Word I hear is that he has opened a second front, war on Syria; even after he declared war on NATO with a mass migration. The prez is also at war with the Kurds, and sometimes Iraq.

He is going to need a profession war declarer,  where is that port dredger dude, here, discussing port dredging:

CHARLESTON, SC (WCSC) - The Port of Charleston is the fourth busiest port on the East coast. It brings in $45 billion every year and employs more than 260,000 workers across South Carolina.
But ships are getting bigger, and if the port is not dredged soon, Senator Lindsey Graham says the port could die.
I don't complain about his port dredging skills, but he is a professional at war declarations, he and the McCain guy.  Erdogan should hire him, give the guy a map; and then Ergodan can spend his day without the hassle of constant war declarations.

Canada birthers spark maybe not fake story

That Canadian guy might be the reincarnation of Fidel Castro, via the mystical blessings of his mother. Now, tell me, is politics funny or what?

Make many states, but New York is always more stately

On Flag Burning, Trump Differs With Scalia but Agrees With Clinton

The real message is not flag burning, but submission to the Swamp, and New York grew up as master of the Swamp. It wants the title to mean Yawker power.

California we don't care if you burn it.  Texas doesn't have those flags.

My favorite fake news story

AP (Nov 2016): Researchers detect a major rise in epilepsy from flashing ads and screen jumps in the modern GUI.

Working with computer scientists, researchers measured the number of bonehead screen flashes, suggestion pop ups, and hopping about on Facebook and Microsoft GUI in general.

Researchers find that 40% off all mouse moves cause some random flash on he screen. 90% of all 3 key combinations result in some unique short cut to hell.  Test subjects were measured after a days use.  10% of them were found writhing on the floor in spasms.

Read Matt Levine every day


His link above.  Anything you want to know about the practices of co-location, uncertainty in the book, and crowded trade channels; he sees it every day and reports it exactly as the mahematicians needs it reported.

URL look up is made safe from DOD attacks, with a little knowledge of probability

FRIDAY MORNING IS prime time for some casual news reading, tweeting, and general Internet browsing, but you may have had some trouble accessing your usual sites and services this morning and throughout the day, from Spotify and Reddit to the New York Times and even good ol’ For that, you can thank a distributed denial of service attack (DDoS) that took down a big chunk of the Internet for most of the Eastern seaboard.

Distribute URL data entries according to probability of use such that the number of hops from the originating device to the nearest look up is short.  Then, in total, the probability of an innocent user being delayed by DOD attacks is minimized.

Best way to distribute the DNS look up service?

Spare processors in local routers that can spawn a new router with available DNS database functions, a slot for the DNS provider.  Then dynamically distribute DNS information by probability, as in a Huffman tree.

Ultimately, the best bet is to charge a hundreth cent per cycle on the database, and use all of that dough-re-me to buy spare processor as needed.  But that fine tuning requires Smart Card, like just about all the good things to come.

Union imposed price fixing does not work

Two tier pay systems seldom work.  They come in two parts.  First, the original group holds on to benefits.  Second, the new group pays for them.  Third: You get mostly old contracts and very few new contracts, then the oldsters retire, en masse, when this is not sustainable..  This is the Dallas pension problem, it is really the California energy price fixing problem under Gray Davis.  Price fixing jams the graph.
CalWatch: In 2011, Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa (pictured) won a hard-fought deal with the Los Angeles police and firefighters unions that targeted “pension spiking” — late-career maneuvering that allowed individuals to push up their final pay and thus their annual pensions. It also reduced the minimum pension available after 20 years of service.
All employee unions also made concessions reducing retirement benefits for newly hired workers that year. And after the 2011 contracts, all new hires had to share in the costs of health care benefits. Taxpayers had previously covered the whole tab.

Consumers spend on durables

Consumers, exports power U.S. third-quarter economic growth

OK, now the third revision tells us from whom the durables were purchased.  We will see the number drop a bit, maybe 3.0; still OK.  There is quite a big between income and expenses which means reconciliation later. The next revision could very well be up.

Commercial restrictions on freedom of speech?

HotAir found a gem.  Many states have laws which restrict merchants ability to talk fianane wityh their customers:

I’m always interested in free speech cases when they make their way through the court system, but this one is particularly unique. In a small town in upstate New York a beauty salon ran into a problem a couple of years ago. They listed their prices up front based on the cash price for services, providing a note saying that there would be an extra fee applied if the customer paid by credit card. They were advised by an attorney to take the sign down or change the wording because they were in violation of the law. That may sound fairly crazy, but it turns out the lawyer was correct and they wound up going to court, claiming that their right of free speech was being impinged. (Route Fifty)
The owners of Expressions Hair Design in Vestal, along with other New York businesses that have sued the state over the law, say their freedom of speech is being impinged on because they can’t explain to customers how credit card fees affect their bottom line.
Their case, Expressions Hair Design v. Schneiderman, is slated to come before the U.S. Supreme Court early next year. A decision in the case also is likely to be felt in nine states with similar laws (California, Colorado, Connecticut, Florida, Kansas, Maine, Massachusetts, Oklahoma and Texas). And, given the reach of big retailers and the growth of online sales, it could influence how merchants in other states do business, too.
“All these laws are really doing is regulating speech in a way that favors credit card companies because it masks the costs of credit to consumers,” said Deepak Gupta, the consumer rights lawyer representing Expressions, where his mother gets her hair done. Under the laws, he said, “you can say the glass is half full, but you can’t say it’s half empty.”

How does trading pit work this problem? It simply reports that transaction costs are unmeasurably zero, the cost of an active trading pit is likely tens of dollars per year per billions of transactions. There arte no humans involved, except the person to person delivery of a real goodie.

How would the hackers find us?

Here we have it, for some reason the bank has your personal details.  Why?  All the bank needs, in our model, is to know your Smart Card is on the security block chain. Once that is established, your card has already agreed to play the proper Red/Green rules; and that means the card already verifies its owner.
Tech Insider: Hackers have broken into a high-end European bank and are blackmailing its customers.
Customers of Valartis, a Chinese-owned Liechenstein bank, are being told by unknown blackmailers they must pay 10% of their life savings or face having account details sent to finance authorities and the media, German-language newspaper Bild reports.

House Speaker. Ryan, let's sneak a big deficit potential in the budget

Typical Republicans on the budget.  
Short term financing is what Ryan want, he consumes borrowing capacity for the first six months, and that is the Trump bump, a little twerp in the House.  If our boy gets a big bump, we can expect a budget shutdown later.

Hill: Senate GOP members are instructing the Appropriations Committee to begin working on a stopgap that would fund the government through March, according to a Senate aide.
The effort shows that Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) is going along with the plan laid down by Trump and House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) to move the short-term measure, even if the Senate GOP hasn’t completely bought in on the strategy.

From biometric news

Mobile bank offers hand recognition authentication
UK bank to extend trial of behavioural biometrics security
Visa and BioConnect work to enable multiple biometrics on mobile apps
Spanish bank offers ‘selfie’ service to open account
NEC aims for face recognition for payments by late 2017
Mastercard to roll out biometric ID service in North America

The proper viewpoint is that we will select some set of biometrics to make sure your bot only follow your instructions, this is about you having control.  The banks point of view and the individual point of view agree.

In the Secure Smart Card model, the identification biometric goes no further than the card itself, no one else is looking at your face, and certainly no human.  Once your card knows you, the system is safe. Safe in the sense that human disagreement are immediately moved out of the system, into customer service.  So, if the clerk wants a biometric look, you have to OK the delivery, it should not be necessary as long as your card knows you.

Monday, November 28, 2016

The question rermains, how can we invest in the North East

It really was New York's turn at the slop hole.  For 40 years it has been California or Texas.

How can the North East appear investable to us Southwest folks?

How would we deal with the mal-functioning Illinois system? And what if DeBlowsio butts in all the time.  Texans don't like unions, California can barely afford them, Illinois  is ruled by them.

If we screw it up then the collapse happens sooner, normal economics suffers distortion.  And we have the pain of the California legislature, none too bright; not to mention the Texas style county corruption.  The odds are against any massive resource transfer working.  How many club med California politicians ate going back to NY and check on our investment? None, that is how many.

California is at risk, we have to house the nation's homeless if the aggregate frigs up.

It is impossible to 'compound' in the trading pit

Compounding was another of those delusions, it really cannot exist reasonably in a well counted economy.

Trading pit counts well.  When the S&L tree re-quants, your bot aearns some bit error,  right then and there, into the control of your local bot.

Collect them up to integer, and drop them back into the S&L pit.  There is no time to compound with,  tyhe pit does not know time. Your bot deals with only the probability of waiting in line so your bot is not instantly more knowledgeable than the next.  A re-deposit is back in line and a new ball game on the graph.  Your trading bot should always check its options with other pits, least it suffers the delusion of compounding. And, take a quickscan before dropping a deposit, see if the wait is long.

Dealing with the central banks and the new technology

The issue will be that central banks want all money flow cleared with a regulated clearing house. Even still central banks are stuck with a immutable fact, the new cards will hold secure digits, banks will ultimately insist on that security.

So, the pure cash solution is peer to peer, single shot exchange. How do we avoid the government rule? The governments position here is tenuous, because we can write a clearing house function and place it at the checkout counter, let it duly report balances of zero.

So, ultimately, Congress will have to mandate an individual requirement, to maintain regulated deposits; or accept its own budget responsibility.  Congress will force a deposit mandate on the individual, but the technology is off the hook here.  This conflict is between individuals and their  representative.

Clearly, we are bound to produce this technology, I would not be surprised to hear announcements at any time; all the components in place.

The efficiency imperative forces

This is not rounding the edge of some market,this is dropping the entire cost of finance down to  absolute zero..  You can see the market size, just estimate the central bank balance sheets, all of which come under bot organization.  That is some 10 trillion in assets right there..  The total derivative industry flows another few trillion, as well as the entirety of commercial banking..

It really can't be avoided, being able to handle the entire collection as a functional probability distribution is so overwhelming, across he board.  Risk management, inventory flow, and very liquid price adjustment.  A system that can estimate its global valuer in reasonably short order.  Something like a ten fold plus decrease in transaction times everywhere.

The low transaction costs make almost anything priceable.  Once we have secure digits, its the peer to peer, the card touch, thy makes everything a priced transfer.

Bogle did the math wrong

Michael Regan interviewed Vanguard Group founder Jack Bogle for Bloomberg Markets last week, and I suppose it would be tempting to be like "so, Jack Bogle, index funds are pretty good, right?" "Yup, pretty good." "Thanks for your time." I mean, it is pretty straightforward. And there's a little of that -- "the math is the math, and I think the mathematics are inarguable," says Bogle -- but they also get into some of the more abstruse critiques of indexing.

I heard his comment, and no I did not go read his thesis.  But it is a pretty good guess he did a continuous versions on the math, which implies he assume Ito's calculus is always good, a bad mistake.  His math will be horribly wrong when the generational helicopter flies.

Matt Levine wants us to comment on this tule

Matt Levine: Here is the NASDAQ Stock Market LLC's rule filing for its proposed "Extended Life Priority Order Attribute," which would give priority to orders that promise to stay in force for at least one second. We have talked about this order type before, and I was fond of it; it seems like a good rough way to segment "customers" from "dealers," and to give some priority to the customers:
In some loose approximate sense, if a customer shows up and wants to buy stock, then she should get priority over a dealer who also wants to buy that stock, because, you know, she actually wants to buy the stock. The dealer is just churning inventory for a few milliseconds. 

OK, Nasdaq wants to sell time; this is where they are going.  The market can't sell time, it can sell cycles on the graph.  The index funds is running at milliseconds because cycles are not pried.  

But once cycles are price, then bets have to be compressed by a pit boss. You really have no choice, since, at bottom, if Nasdaq is not organizing by probability, then they are simply a useless monopoly, about to be replaced.

Nasdaq officials should hire a mathematician to read what the  physicists are saying about emergent spacetime, it all applies to markets.

It matters if Hillary is not doing the corrupting

Why Corruption Matters, by Paul Krugman, NY Times.

First time we heard Krugman mention corruption even as we watched Hillary's Foundation reap rewards from her State Department job.

Paul, let me explain.  Rednecks have triple decoder rings.  Our decoder rings detected that your  would be changing your tune once your people left office.  And your people were bound to leave office, look at the alternation of regimes we go through. It was never destined that your philosophy becomes permanent law, that is a common delusion, we all suffer it; even physicists

Any economist figure that out?  It is the very same problem Europe has.

Hot dogs are a gateway to fat politicians

Christie a Tough Sell on Legal Marijuana: New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R) said tax revenue from legal marijuana would be “blood money,” citing it as a gateway to other drugs. He pledged to resist any legalization effort in his state until he leaves office. (

Not to mention being a governor in the dying North East leads to welfare begging in the Swamp.

Ex football player takes job as a mop

Texans wanted anyone but the Californians back at the Swamp

So, we see the bump in Texas business confidence, never mind that these same bozos bankrupted Dallas City government.

Soon the Swamp will jam and these boneheads will be crying for socialist bailouts.

You hope, and hope and hope

Paris (AFP) - President-elect Donald Trump's big-spending plan and tax cuts are expected to help double the US economic growth rate by 2018, the OECD said Monday.
The US economy will grow by 2.3 percent in 2017 and 3.0 percent in 2018, said the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, revising its earlier forecast.
That compares to gross domestic product growth of 1.5 percent this year, according to the OECD.
The Republican property tycoon's team has said he will devote $550 billion to rebuilding decrepit infrastructure.
The incoming president also campaigned on promises for major corporate tax cuts as part of a wide-ranging blueprint for the limping US economy.
The Trump bump may be over, the conservatives are coming back to town. 

Dills Act debt per capita

RankStateMarket Pension Debt/Household
7New Jersey$58,409

Whoa, there is no way I am assuming the 78 grand they claim I owe.  No one in California voted for this shit, it was mandated when the Dill Act ceded out rights to the public unions.  When the bone heads come for the dough-re-me, they will  have to pry it from my Smart Card.

Buy look at Illinois. Talk about Blue State stupidity, Illinois takes the cake.  There growth rate is zero, boys and girls, no one in Illinois plans to pay up on their 78 grand, they would all be better off with bankrupt local government..