Friday, November 18, 2016

Black swan spotted

AEI: It is difficult to exaggerate the importance of Italy’s forthcoming referendum, not only for the Italian economic outlook, but also for that of the eurozone as a whole.
If Prime Minister Matteo Renzi wins that constitutional reform referendum on Dec. 4, Italy could probably keep muddling along with its very troubled and highly indebted economy. If, however, as seems more likely, Renzi loses that referendum, Italy could be in for a prolonged period of political and economic uncertainty.
Such an outcome could throw into question the country’s continued euro membership and could raise basic questions as to the eurozone chances for survival in its present form.
The standard narrative is this fails, Renzi is a  goner, capital flight from the banks follows, banks fail payments, the bigger German banks freak, Euro crashes, .......

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