Tuesday, November 29, 2016

Ten year yield hits resistance

That is what I watched lately, how sustainable is a 2.4% ten year rate, and we seem stuck at 2.31%, I am convinced 2.5% is our upper limit.

The resistance comes from bankers, Schumer, the conservative senators; not the twerp from Wisconsin, and these folks are tampering the spending enthusiasm in the Swamp.  It is a precise calculation, actually, the conservatives have a finite base of discretionary programs that cannot be cut, a hard red line.  Most of this is small earmark like legislation, block transfers, and defense goodies.

In the ix are head bankers from GS,JPM, and the rest.  They got assistants with lap tops.  There are the new treasury appointees in the mix, along woth  current.  The advisory committee is set up.

It is kind of  market like, mostly a negotiation, a convention of agents assigned to sling government debt.  No one in the group is happy about the prospect of a large helicopter flight, and the five years of price distortion we get.  But a lot of transactions have to take place before they clinch a price, they may not close a deal.  Then it is back to the twerp and the debt deluge.

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