Friday, December 30, 2016

OK, a bunch of baby boomers lied for thirty years and we are in deep doo doo

So what can Narayana Kocherlakota say? He calls it tight fiscal policy, I call it an entitlement trade that hasn't happened fpr 30 years, and we have the big jolt coming.

What is the danger? If Narayana does not like big jolts then he should not have joined the MIT basket weaving crew some 40 years ago. They said, no problem, G has magic.  I said, yes, and the magic is  a requant, a fairly big jolt.  But the danger is folks like Narayana who freak out at jolts and go do something stupid, like kick can..

Let us just have the jolt, if we are too stupid to have money technology ready, then we are too stupid.

A World at Risk: My last day as President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis was on December 31, 2015. I began blogging on January 2, 2016... In my first post, I wrote that “economic policymakers can do better. Indeed, I increasingly believe that they must do better.” In my view, the global political events of 2016 show why I wrote those words.
That first post argued that macroeconomic policy remained much too tight around the developed world. It closed with the following warning and admonition:
“We are only beginning to see the impact of tight policy choices on our economies … Given these kinds of macroeconomic outcomes, it should not be surprising that we see increasing signs of social fracturing and disengagement in many developed countries.”
On or about tyhe 1970s, Paul Samuelson published an equation that showed time on the  axis can be stretched, there was no time.  As delusional as that bunch was, they decided to make G count time  Hr missed the bigger picture, time is not relevant, probability is relevant; with respect to price..  In our new model, that means time is handled in the smart contract layer. pits never do time.

Since Paul, most of the effort has been around guessing what index G is using, then matching that to yield probability, which gets you price. Thr new technology dumps time from the trading pits, it gets at the probability surface; the price probability comes from the latest scan of the loan and deposit distribution. Central bankers do time, they will be frigged.

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