Tuesday, December 6, 2016

The pension probability surface

The probability of a liquidity event in the various pension funds.
Once Congress gets involved, the probability wave collapses, all the pensioners head for net present value, were screwed, its helicopter time.  There is a sudden queuing in the  Swamp, the observable funds are not observable,so there is a sudden rush to divy the pile.

This is not sudden, it was well planned and well noted in the financial and government presses for eight year and more.  Matrin county officials did not stuff their pensions in secret; it was quite open, mostly legal, and perfectly expected behavior in California. Matin cou ty tax payers knew they were getyting stiffed.

In LA, all tax payers know  the school boards have been on a building binge, via bribery, even with enrollment declining. Now they cannot afford teachers, which wr knew would happen, and their borrowing costs arte up, which we knew would happen,  pension costs climbing, and no discretionary funds.  Voters, politicians, taxpayers all knew the law, the law intends for California to have a boom and bust public sector.

None of this is a secret, and when the ten year gets somewhat above 2.5, California public sector hiring does the sudden stop, and layoffs begin.

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