Saturday, December 10, 2016

Treasury rates

One year .85% and ten year 2.47%

Put this in perspective.  This is 100 billion dollar jump in interest expense. Compare that to the cost of bailing out the miner's union for five years was about 7 billion.  

It is impossible for Congress to innovate at all, anything they do will be highly uncertain because their fixed budget will be upset by increased interest expense.  Congress is going home, and they have left this additional 100 billion to the Treasury and that means, Treasury will drive next year's interest payments as necessary to cover the transition.

Congress is in permanent catch up and will shut down. Its main problem? Extremely volatile interest expense as a result of too much debt as a result of not being an optimum proportioned government.

The new cost for debt rolls out over a few years time, it is a rollover effect.  But it is not smooth, debt bunches up with regime and election changed. No doubt we will see  a bunch of debt come due right when this rate hike is peaking.

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