Tuesday, December 12, 2017

Tax reform isn't fitting into the calendar

A two week budget extension puts the senators in the Swamp for holiday, an existential threat.  Fine tuning the tax bill is causing it to wander, more tradebook uncertainty.  Then comes government ledger mandates.

About the one year

It seems to me, if one invests in the one year, rolls it over, then you are starting to earn the PE ratio for the market.

Your price paid is a bit less than one year, in units of time.  The market should top, there will be more segments of the holders who call 'timeout' for a year, and go profit taking. This segment sees a 50/50 binary option of profiting in the market over any yearly sequence.

In three years I will being saying, "Why isn't Treasury jumping on the one year, it being so low after another down turn". I could, sort of automate the blog if we maintained the typical sequence.  But we cannot maintain the same sequence, that is the point of the CBO chart going exponential. Th small discretionary programs are under severe existential risk given that interest payments approach 3% of real GDP,our limit.

A jump in producer prices

The index for final demand goods jumped 1.0 percent in November, the largest advance since a 1.0-percent increase in January. Over three-fourths of the broad-based November rise can be traced to prices for final demand energy, which climbed 4.6 percent.
The ten year hit 2.4, one year at 1.68. The market won't go up with these numbers. The PPI rise is also a hit to corporate earnings.  We have packed the sphere, this economy isn't finding a better Avogadro's number. The slope, ten minus one, is 70 basis points, we are not that accurate in esiimating time to completion.

Bringing up a point about timeout

What is our Avogadro's number? It is the sum  of all complete sequences. And, the longest sequence is really the timeout.  In protocols, the timeout is the 'time' period over which almost anything that could have happened must have happened.

Crypto accounts?

BIS trying their hand at semantics of the sandbox:
“An area where the BIS will devote a lot of resources is to virtual assets, which traditionally are called cryptocurrencies, but we don’t believe that they are currencies,” Carstens said.
Bitcoin is really a crypto web wallet backed by the blockchain ledger. The cash transaction  is between the wallet owner and web wallet, the owner sends an encrypted instruction to trade, a one step transaction.  The exchange is a single point guaranteed 'no double spend'  protocol, with timeout. But it only spends on the blockchain.

So, right now we have mostly web accounts protected with crypto watermarks. The exchanges give access to traditional bank ledger services and blockchain.  It is not currency, it is a digital account system and it has found a huge niche, international FX.

We have a significant minority with hardware wallets, otherwise known as intelligent cash cards.  The card will send and erase watermarks, correctly, it is both exchange and account. The watermarks they pass, and the erase protocol,  allows complex protocols (smart contracts) to be decomposed into a  sequence of cash transactions, with timeout.

Monday, December 11, 2017

Almost infinitely divisible bitcoin

Privacy is a big deal for many cryptocurrency advocates as anonymity projects and confidentiality is a very hot subject. Now bitcoin cash supporters will be pleased to hear about a new BCH shuffling protocol called Cash Shuffle. The program is different from basic cryptocurrency mixing services where users have to trust the operator while also paying a substantial fee.

This is a trading pit with an unbound window and zero bit error.  It is like MMT, it will exchange,exactly,  with others, but there should be a residual, in your account, for the unmatched coins. This residual is a declining nano-coin, as transaction continue, it eventually exchanges.  At some point the residual nano coin become  inconsequential, and the shuffle server eats the cost, in exchange for low fees.

That is my speculation, I did not look.  But this kind of function is well within your standard Redneck trading pit reference.  Ultimately the pit solution evolves into a compete side chain. The shuffle server is an asynchronous queue which can defer any call to the block chain. We end up with the standard 3-color, savings,loans, blockchain fee.  When the block chain fee is low, the shuffle clears accounts,  otherwise each party can carry around a custodial shuffle bitcoin, tied to bitcoin. It is not a clone, it is a trademark and contract guaranteeing the peg within some bound.

I like shuffle, find this company and invest.

When Congress is the central bank

Basically  Samuelson's three generations over lapping. We have two generations, the retired and the working.  Worker become retired after some time, so this is time ergodic. Workers cover the interest charges on debt, and some of the retirement.  Then one writes out an infinity of generations and solves for the recursive algorithm which gives the interest rate.

Goods and people depreciate equally, in this model,  maintaining the ratio between generations.  Roger wants 70%, he has over 110%.

The Samuelson method requires that we make infinitely  smaller steps toward the goal.  That is OK, that can be converted to DSGE which says we are perfectly Gaussian in distance from the goal. It is the perfectly gaussian that is the difficult assumption. I would take Roger's number as an upper bound.

Gropper-in-chief

  • Three women who have accused President Donald Trump of sexual misconduct will be interviewed by NBC's Megyn Kelly on Monday.

Sunday, December 10, 2017

Thus my simple AI religion

Multi-verses that have more complex laws of physics get bigger Avogadro numbers.

Each expansion, like a block chain, the multiverse tries to arrange the substrate with a more complex spectra. If they compute a bigger Avogadro (which is like the next big checksum),  they get to big bang, and restart with the new laws, if the new laws stick. If their new laws don't stick, they get the old Avogadro's, and sometimes lose a bit on that.

Simple religion, God is a self-actuating sphere.

Relativity and quantizaion

Went over this year ago.

If the physicists tells algebra folks the speed of light is constant, then algebra folks say you math is ultimately finite precision.  I am not the inventor here, read it somewhere and agreed.  We go from the one to the other via onverting to the domain of algebra.

Example. I  our theory, we would say the total system is represented by a finite precision sequence generator. The, to partition the problem between traveler and traveled means dividing a finite graph, in essence. Remember the total system is finite precision. 

So we see the equivalence between aliasing in  the algebra domain. mostly not being reversible.  So, the traveler is more course in definition, more massive. But the travelled is a finer granulation, they have split the sectra, by definition of the problem.  In the Higgs domain the play a similar trick, forcing greater compression than the finite precision substrate can handle. hey have isonormal models built on the same generator,


My simple guide to Euler conditions

Let us design an oval race track. But we change the construction of our race cars.

First we design a race car that can take fractional jumps around the track, 1/5,2/6,...  So, I stretch the race track so it takes the five jumps and finish equals start.

Second, let us say we have our race track, and it has no rational solution.  So, my cars take the best one fifth jump they can, and land within a range of points around the track.  The pir hold the error term and the car can re-use it for the next jump. It maintains bounded error.

Third, I deign a car that can execute a recursive multiply algorithm, and this algorithm will always converge to smaller error faster than a car can jump.  Now I am Euler. I can assume my agents all have access to the recursive algorithm, they never use it to infinity, but we always know there is a finite number of executions that computes toward a solution much faster than cars jumping.

In the last case, I can guarantee that all my Taylor series converge consistently.  In our basket brigade model, the Euler conditions means we always have sufficient rank, and reduced bit error, our generators to get the exact match everywhere.    We are dense, we can use Newton's grammar.  This condition is never met, basket brigade is model number two.

The crypto folks use model number one, but can also use model two if backed up by counterfeit efforts.  In other words, a smart cash card does not have to indicate its exact  spending history, just something close, and not necessarily close enough. It is still verified because the counterfeit cost of defeating close enough is high. Including built in cash limits and timeouts, along with counterfeit efforts, means the load on developing exact crypto histories is greatly reduced. Most pits need only verify an absolute measure of risk. 

For example, use a few duplicate keys among the cards, consumer cards with a $200 limit and one year renewal? Why not, risk is low. We are still backed by honest accounting, as well as any other card.

Euler and Quantization

he recursive multiply means we can get the exact ratio of a can of beans, purchased when we need it.  This is the economic version of multiply, subdivision, and we are limited to a container algebra and price with round off  There are a couple of views, all equivalent. Euler is like the checkout counters have zero transaction interval, and the number needed expands or shrink with unlimited precision.conservation.  The pits assume the one, negligible transaction intervals, transaction costs zero; really we let that fall into bit error. But we assume a mostly fixed number of checkout counters.

Republicans on a spending binge

The Senate last month sent a $700 billion defense policy bill to Trump, indicating Republicans hoped to boost military spending by roughly $70 billion this fiscal year. Meanwhile, negotiations for the spending bill that would actually make that budget increase a reality are pinned on a two-year increase of between $180 billion and $200 billion.

Saturday, December 9, 2017

Children manage parents retirement fund

Here's How Much Retirees Are Spending To Support Their Adult Kids

Millennials generally have parents making very high retirement incomes, paid for by taxpayers, wherever they are.  So millennials are stay at home accountants;  it pays room and board,  use of the car and the occasional shopping trip.

Someone in the UK borrowed a ton of do-re-me

TOM UTLEY: To the young (like my sons) who think we baby boomers are pampered, selfish, racists, here's why you're all SO wrong

Who did this?

I heard the girls peed the Trumpster

During the presidential campaign, Democrats “were peddling” the most salacious Trump dossier allegations to news reporters, a new documentary about the dossier revealed on Friday.

I was after dinner drinks at the Kremlin, and the Trumpster was trying to be hip, and all that.  Putin had the gals. fun loving and drunk.  So, it was like spin the bottle.  Each girl had to take a drink while sitting on one of the guest laps.  The first to get peed loses.   

Anyway, show the tape, or at least include this number in the musical.  I can write the words, give me the tune.  I have the title already, Let's Get Salacious, all about our secret erotic confessions, our sexual emergencies.  

The plot should take us from bed to closet as we squeak under the load in that libido, like an alternation of generation inside, trying to leak its way into a new life.

I have no idea who this person is

An early Facebook exec explains why investing in startups without meeting them is the future of venture capital
Send me a check.

Do not decrypt without biometrics watermark

SELC described the organized-crime scheme as the hacking of Bulgarian Custom’s computers and allowing those associated with the group to skip fees for importing goods into the country. To make it work, the group recruited corrupt Customs officers to upload a virus into government machines, so that hackers could establish remote access.
Here is the clue for governments.

Deploy keys tied to our biometric.  Then any event involving decryption comes with a token identifying a specific thumbprint. From there, you get shoe leather, which can be quite simple. 

Use the keys to protect both your kernel and you data.   This case shoes why we have SGX, use it down to the core data, kernel is part of secure element.

Janet, bless her heart, will support the concept for use in smart cash cards, as her outgoing instructions. The Fed research staff will guarantee, statistically, the new system is legally safer than the old.

The Forked Bitcoin ploy

He started with Bitcoin, but only focuses on forked coins. “Bitcoin will evolve into a capital game for rich bankers and financiers,” Chen explained. “I don’t have enough capital to compete with them, but the bitcoin price will keep rising and simultaneously the price of forked coins will increase.” He learned the concept of a fork when he realized he had received some free Bitcoin Cash in his account this August.
Another segment of the digital world in Xi Ping ong land.  When a group forks the main bitcoin stack, they give up a portion of the new coin to the old bitcoin wallets.  These can sell cheap, and groin demand as more wallets support the coin.

Here we see the blockchain attempting to spawn side chain to gain the lower transaction prices.  Forking only take blockchain so far toward the goal of almost pure cash. 

This forking works quite well for localized currency, like acapulco coin, used to discount hotels rooms in Acapulco. The local hotels run the blockchain on the alt coin, and tie it to the bitcoin main, with risk.  It works because the two industries have  strong coherence, they like international pricing. 

In general it does not work, off the main chain. Most alt bitcoins will die off when they attempt to price other markets and suffer the trilemma problem.

Translators invented the alphabet

Most or nearly all alphabetic scripts used throughout the world today ultimately go back to this Semitic proto-alphabet.[1] Its first origins can be traced back to a Proto-Sinaitic script developed in Ancient Egypt to represent the language of Semitic-speaking workers in Egypt.
The royals would need a tablet for translation, thus giving speeches and work orders. And the alphabet could be read by the slaves. This is all 2000 BC, Egypt times.  In order to be a good slave you had to read. 

My ting is information technology and trade. I am stricken by the fact that alphabets, hence written grammar, was a labor exchange necessity. But earlier, protoc writing that became hieroglyphs was about accounting and inventory. The two diverged, we get math is really the grammar of inventory accounting and language the grammar of labor specialization. This is autocash vs smart contract at the interface.

Financial stability, according to government

Tim Taylor read the government report so we don't have to:

What Financial Risks are Lurking 

The Financial Stability Oversight Council, another creation of the Dodd=Frank  law. It's Financial Stability Report 2017 discusses some "key vulnerabilities" of the financial system.


  1. Cybersecurity Incidents.
  2. Resolution Risks at Systemically Important Financial Institutions A
  3.  Single Bank Deals with all Treasury Securities.
  4. Fragmentation of Stock Markets.
  5. Risks of Low Interest Rates and Volatility Increase Risk-Taking.
They mean, Ruskies stealing our Equifax and Yahoo IDs in the first point. The second is that the debt cartel is getting more compact as the government bankruptcy dominates the market.  Points 2,3,4  points go together, it is all about constrained channel. Point five is about lowered growth because the Swamp is a bot anchor.

Solving the first point makes alternative money standard available,thus solving the rest of the problems.

A new monetary standard

Special edition Super Mario Cereal boxes with integrated NFC tags are to begin shipping in the US on 11 December. The tags enable kids playing Nintendo’s Super Mario Odyssey game to tap the box with their Nintendo Switch controller “like you would an Amiibo” to receive gold coins or a heart they can then use as power-ups when playing the game.

OK, track the median purchase of dry cereal.

Notice anything? No blockchain.  The game itself likely requires a call to central clearing when spending the coin. But the box of cereal giving me a coin? Pure cash.

Mr. Steele says who got manipulated?

His theory of the crime, in essence, is that Ruskie Oligarchs have been buying hotel rooms from Trump for five years.  Trump is their Manchurian candidate.  And they got back up Pee Pee.

Well, the Deplorables would not have accepted less from our candidate. Most of us Putin supporters to begin with at the time. We shift alliances easily.  It was no secret, in fact they list 'Russian Oligarch' on the deeds in Florida.

If you take Trump, as the entertainer, he never left the theater, he has a bit of the Al, a performer.  His castration anxiety ain't all that bad, but he loves the delusion, the gossip columns, and it sell hotels and golf courses.  It is part of the business, as he said on the Access Hollywood tape.

No one expected Trump to win, and, even accepting the dossier, it is not clear that Trump wasn't defrauding the Ruskies, even Trump never expected to win. nor did the popular vote. Trump is the typical bonehead US president, he is Americana.


A new roadmap on sandbox

One of the big bank companies released their roadmap on cash cards.

Biometrics centrepiece of new Visa security roadmap

They describe an upgrade to the  chip card, with biometrics. The chip is an attempt at counterfeit proof, it can hold static keys. Biometrics solid, and fingerprint plus laser veining is popular (what did I say?).

It is not an active, intelligent chip. It is essentially a cold key storage, activated on demand by biometrics. But we can add a battery.

Tokenization is their game, clear the token with central clearing.  The crypto is the card, it has an encryption of you, your print and vein, and can always make sure you were there at the time.

All of this is great, we just want to make the counterfeit proof chip active, and give it a few protected protocols, like honest cash accounting. Is that taking it too far? No. What visa wants is a secure static key. But, by reduction, a secure point can include an honest cash accounting protocol.

So, lets encrypt a cash limit on our cards, then let us power the thing up and guarantee proper cash accounting.  Crypto becomes the watermarks on cash, we promise to erase them on spending.

We have reduced the Visa three step to a point to point two step. But in the process, we have opened a huge array of markets for Visa to set up intelligent, automatic exchanges. A fair deal, all in all.

Friday, December 8, 2017

Do the Ruskies have the pee pee tape?

Given the fact that Trumpster suffers the castrations much, worse than your normal perv, I would guess old Trumpster has quite a few tape's of him, you know, moaning for mommy pooh. We had the tape about grabbing goodies when women are around, in fact, that tape sort of started the whole, 'boy wants mommy perv confessions'.

I don't care, oddly, I hope they got hundreds of mommy tapes,what fun/  If they keep hinting and coming up, the Trumpster will get a bit batty, start to suffer a bit of the old psycho.  Eliminates the boredom of two week bankruptcy hearings in the Swamp.

Steele dossier has a funny history

The dossier was a background on Trump, paid for by a Republican conservative, then the DNC,then via volunteer work. The study included a lot of information extracted fro Ukrainians and Russians. The dirt on Trump?

That is my problem. Why were so many Americans paying foreigners to get dirt on Trump? What what was his supposed crime?

They claim he was paying foreigners to get dirt on Hillary! The whole concept is incredible.  On what basis would the dossier author conclude that some sources are ok, but others not?

I mean if Hillary would pay some servant of the Queenie of Eng;and, Mr. Steele, instead American should go over there an kick his ass for pretending to be our colonial masters.  Anyway, that is my foreign policy,  why would I favor the Brits over the Ruskies?

So, it wasn't the Ruskies who did the interfering, it was an ex British agent, and who knows what his motives were, but it sounds to me that Hillary and the DNC broke the Logan's Act, so arrest them immediately, Mr. Trump, for the sake of national security.

Then let's get our ass over there and finish the revolutionary war.

White sheets out to be racist

Navy: Black Sailor Who Claimed Racial Slurs Written On His Bed Staged The Whole Thing

One more on labor

Another Berkeley favorite, Laura Tyson gets one paragraph right:
Instead, nanodegrees and stackable credentials are likely to gain in importance. German-style apprenticeships combining classroom work and practical work, and enabling participants to earn a salary while learning, could be important solutions even for middle-aged displaced workers. Collaboration between companies and educational institutions, as AT&T (on whose board one of the authors serves), Starbucks, and other firms are showing, can provide workers with the new or enhanced skills that are increasingly needed.
Right, and further one needs to close the field, hire within the employment search network.   So, I want to work a nano-degree on the new flex tube plumbing systems, I can run over to home depot, to do their seminar. 

The meetup at Home Depot is between agents all within the set of employable agents.  Hence, the verification of the meet up is within the semantics of resumes, anonymously collected.  These resumes are digestable by the matching bot, but now priceable in this context. All parties equally aware of skill sets, with a close certainty.

This model i great for employers, they know the quality of the skills data, it is a readable measure.  All agents backed by the secret identity card,  and when personal data is exchanged, the matching bot bows out. If I am a berkeley labor professor, then I want the personal, secure and intelligent cash card in the hands of my agents.  I want that if I am a Thaler fan, or a libertarian or diversiarian.

Consumers seem a bit smarter

Says Carola Binder and her inflation uncertainty index.
This seems like stability, to me.  The red line, long term certainty about prices? How did a bunch of consumers figure that out?

One has to read her background onformation, I will, eventually.

When to buy

Janet likes to buy short when the ten year gets high. If the ten year drops she lets the shorts expire.

Then came Trumpster and the hurricanes.  Contrary to mother nature, the ten year cannot rise above 2.4, now. The resistance point is still dropping.  If Janet cannot twist, we suddenly pop, either invert or let the ten year go free; whoever surrenders first.

Meetiups and labor matching

That was the keep addition to a Waton style labor matcher.  I automated the process of short term meet ups in which a hired pro spreads and certifies a skill for a group.  Then each person, having the secret ID card, has a labor bot, always looking for slight improvements in skills.  The labor matcher offers classes, in response, using human teachers.  The loop is closed, we can then auto price and automate the hiring process, the pit boss control the inside information, the undisclosed skill sets.

We get the automated liberalism which Equitable Growth wants, in particular, when then the labor market differentiates, the great mass of minimum wage workers is better prepared, its bot having better matching power, the worker likely have taken a skill class or two.

Nice work

Today I am happy with Equitable Growth, they done fundamental and good research on the labor market. 

In the process they solved a bunch of economic problems, for real.  The made the labor matching smart machine, a Watson style machine to manage labor searches. They want to prove the usual talking points, but ignore that bias and focus on how they match in the labor markets.

First, teach the bot to read:

In this paper we show that, in fact, substantial changes in task composition did occur within occupations since 1960.2 Moreover, we find that these within-occupation changes in task content account for much of the observed increase in earnings inequality. We start by constructing a new data set using the text content of approximately 4.2 million job ads appearing in three major metropolitan newspapers — the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, and the Boston Globe. We then map the words contained in job ad text to different classifications of task content. Our main strategy relies on Spitz-Oener’s (2006) classification of words into routine (cognitive and manual) and nonroutine (analytic, interactive, and manual) tasks. We complement this approach using the classifications in Deming and Kahn (2017), Firpo, Fortin, and Lemieux (2014), and the Occupational Information Network (O*NET). This last mapping is useful, since O*NET is at present the de facto standard in the literature for measuring the content of occupations

Then read the want ads

In our first quantification, we incorporate our occupational measures into Fortin, Lemieux, and Firpo (2011)’s methodology for decomposing changes in the wage distribution across points in time. Using these methods, we break down changes in the distribution of earnings over time into changes in the attributes of workers and their occupations (the “composition” effect), as well as changes in the implicit prices of those observable characteristics (the “wage structure” effect). Next, we further break down changes in the distribution of earnings into the contributions of observable characteristics (e.g., the contribution of changes in educational attainment and of changes in the returns to education). 

Do some sequence matching

In our second quantification, which we view as complementary to the earnings distribution decomposition, we construct a general equilibrium model of occupational choice. In our model, individual occupations are represented as a bundle of tasks. Workers’ skills govern their abilities to perform each of the individual tasks in their occupation, and give rise to comparative advantage. These skill levels are functions of workers’ observable characteristics — like gender, education, and experience — but also contain an idiosyncratic component. Based on their skill levels and the demand for tasks within each occupation, workers select into the occupation with the highest payoff.

They find market uncertainty

Using data from CareerBuilder, Marinescu and Wolthoff (2016) document substantial variation in job ads’ skill requirements and stated salaries within narrowly-defined occupation codes.

They find that within occupations, routine tasks have been eliminated. 

Anyway, hire these guys, en masse, including half the folks they reference. Their research is also the solution, something that matches hiring managers and workers. This is where WeWork needs to go, evolve a job language, a grammar both hired and hiring can understand.

Smart contracts and blockchain

The two seem seem integral.  Smart contracts need asynchronous access to a consistent ledger system.

Protocols (contracts) are a finite grammar with a timeout. From there we get at least some concatenation operators, and encapsulation.

But, you don't need the coin to make a smart contract. Smart contracts can observe the pits, and wait for events there.

Bitcoin is the exception that proves the rule. Bitcoin is mostly a ledger base FX tool, a smart contract for evading the PBOC. Bitcoin needs to be a coin because of its purpose, blockchain is just the consistent ledger the tool uses. But bitcoin is a ledger based system that offsets the imbalance when a central bank moves off axis. So a bitcoin contract needs a cash tracker, like an apple contract needs an apple tracker.

Bitcoin will never be cash, but always be a cash tracker, it won't price directly, the exception being international travel.  Bitcoin cannot be a general pricing tool else it lose its ability to track central banks. It is a kind of meta coin.

What is new in the job report?

That is the key.  If the job report has a bunch of surprising changes, and it does, then we know the hiring managers and recruiters have been building the market.

This job report had a mix of high and low paying, with the unusual being the dominance of professional worker, the most difficult.  A warning, however, hurricane effects on skilled construction are evident.

Back to theory:

Our theory assumes a constant trade book uncertainty, hence it is a monetary theory.  In reality, the labor market changes uncertainty, it is a two step process.  Rebuild the intermediaries, then rebuild labor flow. Thus, we kick this up to smart layer.

If intermediaries have rebuilt the market, then the truer price of labor reveals itself, a lot of us will be scrambling.. Not necessarily a bad thing, except we start with a huge class of minimum wage workers that need sorting.  This is what Roger Farmer is trying to reduce, the sudden change in labor market structure.

Macro vs micro

The issue for economists is to derive an individual model  which integrates into the macro model. So they ask, what information does the household or firm have.

Our model says, that works when information is used to plug the uncertainty leaks of life. If the underlying process supports the information model, the the underlying process is a queuing stabilization process.  The claim to fame of the basket brigade theory.

Another model is Euler, the agent can pick a real destination by choosing his rate of change.  This requires infinite compressibility of transactions, the ability to by carton of five eggs, when needed. Information model won't match, as information is finite, in the aggregate, and a queuing theory. We manage its precision, but we assume this is all about queuing.

The Euler model is an algorithm that takes a finite generator and steps it out recursively, becoming more accurate at each increment.  A recursive algorithm, about which mathematicians have some grammar.  Has little relevance to natural queuing processes.

Egg cartons explain it all

It is exactly what we do, egg cartons.  In our model, the agent is stuck, maybe, he can by 6 eggs to a carton, only.  The agent uses household inventory uncertainty to privately plan breakfast menus, and will restock eggs in a day or two.

The Euler model says the agent will buy the number of eggs needed for the current breakfast plan. 

The brigade theory tracks, and accumulates,  that inventory uncertainty, but we become finite, and our generators do not have a complete inverse.

Not the labor market

Scitt Sumner describes monotonarianism for us:
It seems to me that market monetarism has two components, the market part and the monetarism part. In my view, monetarism is the school of thought that says shifts in the supply and demand for money drive the most important macro phenomena, including key nominal variables like inflation and NGDP growth, as well as business cycle movements in RGDP and unemployment.
Labor market won't index, got no algebra. 

Otherwise, our auto traded pits actually selects the most likely values of NGDP and RGDP, these pits being the natural determiners of the values. But that doesn't make it 'determinable', except by whatever market consensus emerges. Our systems catches, and reacts,  to the first emergence of the monetary aggregate values.

Better to deal with labor intermediaries:

For labor markets, one really wants to create a model of the intermediaries, how are they organized.  Query the head hunters, what do they say and how many of them are busy. In units of uncertainty, the labor market has huge uncertainty. We see this in he wild cyclic swings.

In economics, what people do is the real outcome in the sense we pick our activities privately, it is the thing priced, over all, in a labor value theory.  It is going to be the most secret, the object of curiosity for the singularity.

Thursday, December 7, 2017

I found it!

Bitcoin tops 16000, and its $270B market value tops ... - USA Today


and

IMF Stress Tests Find $280 Billion Black Hole In Chinese Banks' Capital

I should hire myself as a search engine with inference.

Our generators should have rate of change

In the world where transaction rates are about the same, then our generators can be compared in rate by their window size.

But our generators are queue stable, so window size is the sum of the generator paths (in one of two isonormal forms).   That is just the generator norm, a ratio of two generators is a ratio of window sizes and is elasticity (not necessarily coherence).

Sounds great? Maybe, remember we promise to carry and conserve round off error.

In the  generator form, being fed by some fixed precision random uniform integer (leading zeros ignored) we get the typicals batched up along the reals.   But, if we are canonical, we are 2^N-1, we get the widow size directly from rank. 

We could do arithmetic on the uniform integers, but the round off error does not translate through an inversion of the generator.  The round off is unstable, in the indices. We have limited ourselves in the count of algebra operators we can carry as we are not really symmetric (no reversible inverse that carries round off)

Exchange hacks are exchange bliunders

Github rarely gets hacked and it has a similar problem.

If any exchange is holding your private key, dump them.  Here is what you want:


  • You encrypt your trade request using your secret key. 
  • The exchange, on discovering this is encryption, calls  the linux kernel running on top of the processor.  All decryption of your wallet happens there, and in no other spot because the kernel keeps its public keys protected. 
  • The only place where your wallet account needs decryption is in the kernel itself. Any  decrypted data need only appear in the processor ram, then erased. 


If an exchange says they were hacked, then someone got to their kernel, and that I doubt. Have your exchange explain their wallet account decryption policy.

Nutcase bible thumper, gone

Republican Rep. Trent Franks said late Thursday he would resign amid a sexual harassment investigation by the House Ethics Committee. In a statement, the staunchly conservative Arizona congressman denied intimidating, coercing or attempting sexual contact with members of his staff. But he did acknowledge he had asked two female staff members to be the surrogate for his child.

Cal liberals support the new tax plan

As Brad has demanded, all welfare should be in the Swamp where the Magic happens. Now Brad gets his desires, we will stop funding pensions and welfare in our tiny little Hoover in California, and send all that mess back to the Swamp. Just what the liberal doctors ordered, so we liberal professors in Hooverville, just love the new tax system .

Tax Bill May Spark Exodus From High-Tax States

“I think we’re going to see a big migration,” Jim Puplava told listeners this week.
“We’re already losing almost 100,000 taxpayers per year in California. … If this tax bill goes through, this is really going to force a lot of people out. This is going to have a major impact on those high-tax states, and this is going to be a revenue drain.”

Yes, and Brad is the one who broke it

America’s Broken System
J. BRADFORD DELONG
Hey, Brad, how does one screw up a massive republic of 50 diverse states? Why, easy to do, just pretend there is a Magic walrus in the Swamp.

And you did just that, Brad, your entire career.  You, and Krugman and Thomas have done more to cram this economy through an inefficient government.  Now you three have screwed us all, and who do you blame? Someone else.

That would be LA, on the brink


The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development  

released its annual Point in Time count Wednesday, a report that showed nearly 554,000 homeless people across the country during local tallies conducted in January. That figure is up nearly 1 percent from 2016.

Of that total, 193,000 people had no access to nightly shelter and instead were staying in vehicles, tents, the streets and other places considered uninhabitable. The unsheltered figure is up by more than 9 percent compared to two years ago.

Increases are higher in several West Coast cities, where the explosion in homelessness has prompted at least 10 city and county governments to declare states of emergency since 2015.

No problem, just send them to LA

The union squeeze is on in California

California is at  its downturn. 

Just like  the  last recession, the unions begin using their extra legal powers to extract more money. I see the squeeze in a sudden tightening  of the payment cycle for water and garbage, with increasing penalties.  The county teachers threaten strike over all the corruption in school building, in a declining student population.

I am sure this will be a statewide phenomena, as does Jerry. It is our early signal of the downturn, and it is moving east.

The Vanguard founder says:


The founder of Vanguard Group thinks a conservative portfolio of bonds will only return about 3 percent a year over the next decade, and stocks won’t do much better, with a 4 percent annual gain over a similar period. This is “totally defeating” for pensions, which “are not going to be able to meet their 7.5 percent or 8 percent obligations,” Bogle said in a Bloomberg Radio interview that aired Thursday. “The only return you get on a bond is from the interest coupon,” with fluctuations in prices eventually evening out and becoming relatively negligible over the longer term, he said. Given a portfolio of about half corporate bonds and half U.S. Treasuries, the blended yield is about 3 percent today. “So that’s what you get over the next decade,” he said. “It is almost a given that it will end badly,” he said.

Jerry and the Brownshirts will be hammering the middle class out here. It is going to be a huge mess.

Obama using FBI to rig our elections

FBI Deputy Director McCabe Told Agents To Lie About Benghazi Investigation, Says GOP Lawmaker


And:

Top DOJ official demoted amid probe of contacts with Trump dossier firm

So, in fact, Dems have been thwarting the laws as bad as any Swamper. Why not shut the Swamp down until bureaucrats go away for good.

Unrelated technologies

Ford will shift some electric SUV vehicle production to Mexico and start self-driving tests in the US in 2018.
The millennials need a  physics lesson quick, before they go bankrupt. 

Trumpster drives federal spending to record highs

"I want to avoid a headline that says President Trump's administration just passes the highest spending levels in U.S. history," Meadows told two reporters. "There will be zero support on numbers that are too high, regardless of anybody's position on that."

Little Browns funding Swamp bureaucrats

(CNSNews.com) - The five richest counties in the United States when measured by median household income are all suburbs of Washington, D.C., according to the American Community Survey data released today by the Census Bureau.
Proof, there is magic in the Swamp. 

University of Cal, Berkeley is one big liberal slush fund

A consultant who worked with the highly politicized Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) claims the organization funneled a large portion of over $5 billion in collected penalties to "community organizers aligned with Democrats" as part of a giant slush fund.

Wednesday, December 6, 2017

A Trumpster Fed nominee

One is simple: Abolish paper currency, which means that to pay for anything, you’d have to use money kept in a bank.
From 
Goodfriend presented a paper on it in 2016 in Jackson Hole, Wyo., at a high-profile annual conclave of central bankers. His title: “The Case for Unencumbering Interest Rate Policy at the Zero Bound.” 
Doctor Goodfriend wants government to zap our smart cash cards.

The third option: currency cards, which would look like credit or debit cards but would represent real money, straight from the Fed. The Fed could control its value electronically. Goodfriend argues in the paper that “the public would likely find electronic currency an acceptable alternative to paper currency.”
No he isn't, don't even bother.

I work for Nick, sometimes

For fun. He generated these equations, correctly with assistance on his blog:

debt/GDP is maximum when when  r/(g-r).

We  treat r and gh as he sequences of interest charges and some sequene g that sums yo GDP,  think.  Then we do the math above when the two generators ae isonormal, done using the bit error process o make them both minimally parallel, in essene.

So, here is a finite, bound error term when  we do operations on generators, like take the norm or subtract them.

debt to GDP is really noise to signal, in the Shannon channel, so we get 2^(info capacity) - SNR = 1, pur logistics equation which is approximated by ur Huffman compacter. SNR is GDP per debt, a ratio obtainable via the ration= of the norms of normalized generators.

We take a sequence and normalize its generator against a standard sphere packing consumer. One Huffman generator.  Then we go algebra across isonormal generators to find the exact isonormal match between to,generating the term 1 (or less) , on the Shannon equation. The logistic matching error, the amount of milling about shoppers do.

My claim is that we can do Nicks algebra, substituting minimal graph generators for real numbers. Do it in real time, in the pits.

That should be 2020

Putin announces 2018 re-election bid

If Al goes, then the bible thumper goes

The later being the more psycho.

This will learn the camel jockeys a thing or two

CZECH REPUBLIC ANNOUNCES IT RECOGNIZES WEST JERUSALEM AS ISRAEL'S CAPITAL

Don't quote me on that, I  might run for senator against the brunette.

Nerve gas

Doctors identify brain abnormalities in US Embassy patients in Cuba

 They found brain damage, thus likely the sounds heard was degeneration of audio pathway. It may have been a spray applied earlier. But why audio? Spray in the ear?  No, spray in in the nose.  But the ear give balance and sound, seeming to be the likely entry point still. However, vision problems in focus occurred.

They get sprayed, somewhere.  Its works through bloodstream, accumulates at blood brain. Then, later its effects happen.  If its nerve damage happening rapidly, it will seem like hallucinations.

In additional to California's woes.

One big one we forget.  Corrupt school boards across the state went on a school building binge, under debt rates no longer low.  A lot of that debt suddenly needs refinancing when rates are rising and they compete with the Swamp.

Cal government still hit with rising liability on pensions, but get an additional whammy with Obamacare requirements

Already suffering five tax hikes in the cycle, income producing businesses leaving. And, low income refugees arriving.

Together this is a 15% squeeze on governments here, in an aggregate shock. Maybe a 5% reduction in hiring across the public sector, if we are lucky.  But that is likely close to blue bar. The Swamp gets a sudden drop in tax receipts. It is California Boat Anchor time.


The California rule cannot practically be overturned

Which is the problem.

The Dills Act and Reagan's Union Oversight rule put the California rule back in play, either written or oral under different semantics.  The unions still control the legislative path. The California Supremes would never be taken seriously. Jerry is not spending his last year fighting this.

We are back to where we were, either take the union deal or it is a mutual strike, a desist. The US Supremes cannot help either way, California is too big to get anything other than states rights on the issue.  Any involvement by the Swamp risks bailout.

Pension institutions are leaking out, from equities into the one year treasury.  Projected returns in the 4% range are optimistic, Cal governments get hit with a sudden, aggregate whammy.

If I said, All things being 'Magic Walrus' don't worry, this equates to another quarter point or so off growth.  But California is never Magic Walrus. We are coherent, or anti-coherent with the Swamp, so our  pension constraints come exactly when the Swamp delivers a 30 billion  year charge. The wealthy smell writing on the wall, escaping before the requant. The wealthy actually get more looks at the book, the price they charge for progressive taxation.  California is starting the requant process.

Legal abyss, left stranded with no sound body of law.

 My advice to the Cal Supremes. Take the Due Process route. Specify that the California Rule was legal implies the contract gets a due process appeal strong enough to over rule, based on US Constitutional guarantees. In other words, mandate the legal path from local government to the US Supreme, and Cal Supremes pass the buck. The state lives to see another day.

Not quite on addiction

It is reasonable to think, as Gary Becker's theory of rational addictionproposed, that an addict does not enjoy his addiction per se, but that it helps him face pre-existing personal problems that would otherwise be even more difficult to support; which is to say, it provides utility.
But some addicts degenerate into a public danger. We quarantine them without their permission. 

The job sucked anyway

Al Franken To Announce Resignation Tomorrow, Democratic Official Confirms


The senate where disinformation is the name of the game. He should  join the secessionist camp.

The original Logan violation with the parties reversed

Hilarious as it seems.

John Adams was enforcing some prohibition with France, which was intercepting American trade with Britain.  Any way, the French, incidentally, sent operatives to organize pro-French lobbying force. They worked with Jefferson. Adams, as president got pissed and passed the Logan act.

The funny part, the party organization we have today was the French import.

Look at the current issue. Sanctions issued in Mar 2014, just before election. At the time, an array of parties were all colluding away about Ukraine and Russia and (Israel, Saudi, China, and Britain...). Suddenly the law is going to draw the Crimea line between all this collusion?  Hillary was there, Soros, American oil, NATO, just to name a few.

There is nothing really new going on, the Logan Act rarely gets called because there is no crime. Remember, this is all after the Citizens United ruling, publicly organized free speech is protected.

California burning again

Looking like 300 structures, but many expensive house, and we get major traffic bottlenecks.

We are putting Jerry's budget on edge when short term rates are wayup. Jerry barely had a moment to build the rainy day, swamped with rising pension costs.  But Congress is driving sort term rates, some of that in response to hurricane and, indirectly, the Mexican earthquake.  We still have the cost problem in Illinois, along with some very fictional, and semi-legal financing. Puerto was bankrupt at the start, and we have waves of migrations.

The hurricanes were not six sigma events, they happen on a reasonable, regular schedule.  Government has short memory.

If I were a sexist

Alabama Senate Poll: Moore 50, Jones 43

I would call Jones a pussy wimp ass freak show.  

But I don't suffer that kind of sexism. He is really a dingbat talking points memo, likely his problem.  Whatever creatures the Alabamans are, they don't get the concept of a walking talking points memo.

Loops and generators

Right here, from a Zero Hedge post.  This is it, an ill formed sequence generator.   I count three or four loops.  Liquidity traverses the loop, twice around and bitcoin has the loop priced.

More interesting  is the idea that Citi made this graph, they get the concept. For mathematicians, you have theory on this, we know. Here is your opportunity, Citi would jump on any mather who could find the algebra for analysis of investment protocol loops.

Agents along the loops have Deja Vu, they notice the repetition slightly before it arrives.  Given a tool like bitcoin, the agents will build a liquidity bet on price.  and that is how loops close.

We know the ultimate regulatory response

As Korean policy makers grow increasingly worried that the [bitcoin] mania has gone too far, the nation could become a focus for bitcoin traders around the world. Korea’s top financial watchdog, which briefly roiled cryptocurrency markets with its banon initial coin offerings in September, said this week that it has “grave concerns” about overheated speculation and has formed a task forcewith other government bodies to increase supervision.
Bitcoin is a web based simulation of cash.  Central bankers will go to auto traded cash; intelligent cash cards.

Bitcoin is being driven by its use as an ad hoc FX transfer tool, mostly Chinese escaping the off equilibrium PBOC.  PBOC is up shitcreek without a paddle.  Thre PBOC is a loop, complex but looped.  Bitcoin is pricing the loop. Each PBOC discretionary move is priced within days. FX transfer is what bitcoin was meant to do, and if ever a digital coin could use a blockchain, it would be central bank neutral FX transfer. It is the one monetary function of blockchain.

Another Al

As reported by Politico, a former Democratic congressional aide claims the incident took place after one of Franken’s radio shows before he was a senator.“He was between me and the door and he was coming at me to kiss me. It was very quick and I think my brain had to work really hard to be like ‘Wait, what is happening?’ But I knew whatever was happening was not right and I ducked. I was really startled by it and I just sort of booked it towards the door and he said, ‘It’s my right as an entertainer,'” said the woman.
Here is what I mean.
On this blog,making sarcasm by exaggeration is what I do.  I might say,"Hey, but Megyn is a girlfriend for us all!", a degrading politically incorrect remark if ever there was one.

If I had Al's radio show, and wan't running for senator, then my gag would be to tell the audience: "I am going to sneak a kiss, because I am a cool entertainer and all".  In other words, make a sarcasm out of the pithy sexual ethic.  Me on a radio show? Think, which bozo bombshell would dare to be on the air that I would be kidding her about selling sex appeal.

Or another perv might just do it to test the gal, just to see if she fell for the pithy sex ethic. It is not all castration panic, and it is the castration panickers who screw up the power trip. I claim a lower, different level of perversion, one based on the inherent humor of culture, for lack of a better word. A sort of bitter old  man, done right.

Important distinction, not always sexist.

Consider Melissa McCarthy, the Sean Spicer imitator. This is the non sexist, or the female sexist version, whatever. Melissa has that deep sarcasm, learned young when spotting the cultural frauds.  Imagine what she could do with old Roy Moore, the bible thumper.  Whatever it is, it would never pass any political correctness test known to man.  But I would vote to keep her in the senate, her job, make a mockery of the place.

Women comedians  out there know Al.   They know that Al and the bombshell really don't mix, Al would likely suffer stage fright if any gal actually took him up. These comedians out to speak up, set the record straight. They don't have to support Al as senator, but these charges are quite pithy, from an SNL perspective, and they know this.

Thumbprints and the FBI

The latter can watch thumbs punch button all they want, with shoe leather and standard warrant.

The thief is not in the sandbox, because no humans allowed. The FBI can watch aggregates of thumbprints move digits, like everyone else. They got a suspicion, then get a warrant. But pits don't remember much past mark to market, about every second.

A warrant gives the FBI what right? You decide, but one right is not granted, the right to insert special code or privileges in cash transfers. They cannot get special access to running pits, except as posted. If they want it down, have to pull the plug, with the local warrant and police thugs.

Tuesday, December 5, 2017

All that effort to wrangle the treasury curve

And we were operating today at a slope of 70 basis points.  The one year rising to 1.66, the Fed quit twisting for a while. The ten year has not really moved in over a year, quite remarkable, especially since Congress pays that rate.  I do not think the ten year goes much above 2.4 before therequant, it is being depressed. The stock market is at best a break even.

A fun chart:

We can see the green, that is Janet lending short term to Congress. using money from long term bonds expired or sold.

The  blue and red are the excess reserves, holding steady while Janet buys the short debt.

Janet is trying to kick the habit, but if she stops, then all the excess reserves rush to fund Congress directly. That causes, oddly, the government subsidies to rise as Fed payouts to depositories reduces. Unstable, Congress will continue to borrow short, and it gets the automatic subsidy on the side. But the banks should reduce private lending to cover the short fall, whoops, recession.

Or Janet just keeps twisting, assuming the rising shorts on her balance sheet are nothing. But Hanet cannot really sell her long term, they should expire. Otherwise, sequence forward and backward are changed,  So, she has to make the short and long balance, on the way down, follow as best she can the reverse.   Her best bet is to retire and write a book about basket brigade theory, like the Mr. K banker.

Not working is hard work

The idea was to be a nudger, like the Thaler guy; then have fun blogging.

But, each nudge, though hardly newsworthy, was supposed to send a gaggle of mathematicians toward a look.  Then I look, something is done, but no movement. Then I nudge, and hope and pray that I can finally; not work.  My business is not in the arena, that is where the workers are.

The labor market is rebuilt during the recessions

Clueless central bankers on labor markets:

Most Fed officials, including Mr. Powell, a current member of the board, are ready to move on rates. While they don’t completely understand why inflation is low, they are confident that it will rise as the economy continues to grow — as employers seeking workers are forced to offer higher wages.

The labor market currently has very high tradebook uncertainty. The only real safe hire is the minimum wage.  The high skilled have no labor market, at the moment.

We can understand this with wage settings.  The more wage settings the market can handle, the more accurate the wages. We cannot support a information rich labor market, too many government fees bear down.  That is why we suddenly shift to high unemployment, the labor market must requantize on whole unit of uncertainty from the previous quants.  The extreme of unemployment is going to every high as we have to rebuild the labor markets to reflect the repricing done during the recession.


He is gonna be kidnapped by the Dim Kim Son

A senior United Nations official arrived in Pyongyang on Tuesday for a rare, four-day visit at the invitation of the North Korean government.
Undersecretary-General for Political Affairs Jeffrey Feltman is scheduled to meet Foreign Minister Ri Yong Ho, Vice Minister Pak Myong Guk, diplomats and U.N. staff during his stay. They are expected to discuss a wide range of issues.
Feltman, the highest-ranking American in the U.N. Secretariat, is the first person in that post to visit North Korea since February 2010.
Though Feltman previously worked for the State Department, he is not representing the U.S. government.

National Enquirer editor mates with space aliens

Top National Enquirer Editor Accused of Sexual Misconduct

For some reason I think this  is expected. I could  be sexist, but bizarre fiction seems associated with bizarre sex.