Monday, March 27, 2017

The Fed fears the erratic helicopter

Tim Duy talking about the Fed: 
Policy makers see themselves as dancing on a fine line. Too much tightening and they leave the economy weakened and vulnerable to negative shocks. Too little and they set the stage for inflation that they are unable to get under control. But if the Fed can hold that line, it will extend the life of this expansion and maximize employment over the medium to long run. Lacking precise policy tools, however, requires the Fed to seemingly lurch between hike and halt, leaving it open to criticism.
Two known outcomes are in store. First a senate shutdown which occurs every regime these days. Then, if that fails, then Trump will go full sandbox and let the senate default.  The Fed is likely to be left out of the helicopter decision, leaving it up to Goldman-Sachs.

The idea that Yellen is doing dual mandate is horse manure. The game plan has been to keep senate interest costs at 2.5% so the senate might get past the boomer retirement. No can do, the boomers are plotting the proper time to stampede.

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