Wednesday, April 5, 2017

Janet is like a lil old grandma

FOMC Minutes: Balance Sheet To Shrink This Year; Some Saw Stock Prices As "Quite High"
But she issues some numbers.  let us start with 2009 and look at her lows up until 2017.  It has been about 25 billion/yr in net rates paid out ( I likely miss some accounts here). On net,it has been about the same on rates collected, minus the expenses.  (I skipped the round trip taxpayer seigniorage)

The variances in these flows are not much different than the mean if the series are matched over the region (2009-2017).  That is, since the flows are matched, the queues internally are matched and we can guestimate variances by mean flow.

However we do it, the flow variance over the region was not nearly enough to cover known price variance, it is an order of magnitude off, about one half off. Who is handling known price variance? Distortion and segmentation in the price distribution, there is no solid measurement of inflation at this time. Hard assets are going up, consumables down.

The problem, once again, the Fed and Goldman Sachs are pricing government goods only, as they have a binary choice, the senate gets a balanced ten year budget of we fly copter. We are, at the moment,. willing to undergo extreme price fixing rather than fly.

When tech responds to this state of affairs

We see block chain being used for real estate deals, for example.  It becomes the better ledger service as it removes the distortion of tax dollars. Ledger is going to insurance companies, for more than this reason, insurance will not work with only distorted tax dollars.

The sandbox will be working as needed, the two sides cannot help but become enter twined. Coordination failures should be bound and observable. So, for example, even as we are under construction, bitcoin watches our back.

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