Saturday, April 22, 2017


The paper calculates likely magnitudes of the decline and presents evidence in favor of a shift in the composition of investors toward the more risk-averse. The downward trend in real interest rates is a significant problem for monetary policy but is helpful to heavily indebted countries. 

Just the last line of an abstract on low interest rates from one of the Stanford crew.  Let us do semantics.  What is a risk averse distribution? A bunch of savings and loan balances that stay very close to the typical distribution. The S&L  technology we use, in he sandbox, matches savings to loans with ad hoc interest swaps. When all parties operate within the bounded surface, the pit boss is letting things ride.  The typical S&L, the one everyone downloads, is like for us locals, for the monthly budgets, and we keep savings and loans relatively equal over our cycle, the pit is two color.

High risk pits, we are all going to dump our loose change in these things, we are expected to run to the red.  That is very segmented between loans and savings, consider that the bit error bounds is two surfaces, not too safe and a bit risky. We get many small depositers and a few big borrowers, it will look like a crowd funding operation, and, whoa, that is what it is.  Works great using standard off he shelf S&L technology, thanks to auto pricing.

Anyway, risk is a one or two constructed volatility surfaces. Think of the two surface as an attempts at a sphere, by construction.  The idea is to get a tight queue so that the compression from the outer to the inner surface will almost point to the center of the Wythoff game. All the savers crowding all the borrowers into a center, but the borrowers wanting none of that and only an estimate of a center is obtained. Each of the trades cross the surfaces remain in orbit,  few fall in.

Bit error

In this risk model, bit error is the variance in the position of the virtual center.  But, the pit boss can be restricted to operate that center two "shells" forcing bets to the outer edge of that center variance.  Fun stuff, and only god and lunatic tappers knows how it turns out.

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