The blue line above looks to be the accumulation of the red changes at the bottom. The red changes went negative, that means, according to the past, we in a recession.
But the past merely rhymes, and this time may be lightly different. We have have had the 'aha' moment in 2009, figured out the generational default cycle, and we are intentionally bouncing along zero.
I other words, we are expecting the changeover to the new money technology, and we are actively working to limit coordination failure. One can only hope.