Friday, May 19, 2017

The imaginary expectations magic

Temporary money theory:
By reducing the balance sheet after the United States’ first experience with quantitative easing, it could set a precedent for the next round, signaling that future increases would also be temporary. David Beckworth of the Mercatus Center argues that a temporary increase in the monetary base is going to be far less effective than a permanent increase, using the example of the United States going off the gold standard. A temporary increase may not convince the public that the inflation and economic growth will be permanently higher and therefore may not increase aggregate demand as much. Reductions in the balance sheet today could be a signal that future asset purchases would be temporary and less effective.
The double entry accounting system tells us accurately when the borrowers are leaving the queue and savers entering.  No need to worry, government currency insurance is built into the central bank model. Just treat all balance sheet activity as temporary, and work your theory from there. Once a generation our government will default on its monetary obligations, and you get inflation.

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