Wednesday, May 24, 2017

The Obamacare death spiral has an end point

Obamacare is becoming a much weaker program manged in the minutiae of senators maneuvering.  A long period of volatility and higher deductables, more people finding ways to opt out.  And that looks a lot like Trumpcare.

I find it all quite hilarious. The delusion of smootheness in the program was well dead, ask Jerry Brown.  Jerry knew we had it in for the long haul, a huge bouncing liability running through the system.  I remember the exact point at which he lied.

The costs, this and NCLB and bogus defense and stale entitlements is reaching its own fixed point. Tax revenue is down a bit, Ned is worried about making the interest payments and has driven up the one year.  State taxes are way over held, in anticipation of federal tax changes.  And, the municipalities are hitting the short term debt markets, especially in California.   Chicago schools is looking dire. Cars, down, student loans, in bankruptcy; housing starts, surprising down.

But housing prices remain up, going way up above other consumables, in California with barely a hint of downward force in SF. So, other than medical premiums, the consumer is seeing deflation in prices, and that is bad for distribution; the price distribution for consumers still bimodal, there is no inflation trade off in play for the Fed. The Fed is increasingly cordoned off, the rate fixing at the ten year and the debt limit make Ned flatten the curve. What happens when the senators raise the limit an go Trump splurging? Dunno.

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