Monday, June 19, 2017

The yield curve still flat

One to Ten year spread is still less than a point.

The small spread means fewer baskets in the economy and the curve thus has too many spectral points.  Somewhere in that spread, the term structure will collapse in a contraction. We are all going to make fewer trips to the store and carry bigger baskets.  Already my corner grocer is feeling the pinch.  He has to carry some debt, and he now gets fewer but larger purchases over the month and cannot justify being a small store.

We are in California where small business is harassed by politicians.  But Illinois has already breeched, New York is under stress.   Beware the sudden rush to retire.  Texas will not be able to carry us through the next downturn.

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