Monday, July 31, 2017

Carl Menger needs correcting

Mises Wire quote Menger on the origination of money:
An event of such high and universal significance and of notoriety so inevitable, as the establishment by law or convention of a universal medium of exchange, would certainly have been retained in the memory of man, the more certainly inasmuch as it would have had to be performed in a great number of places. Yet no historical monument gives us trustworthy tidings of any transactions either conferring distinct recognition on media of exchange already in use, or referring to their adoption by peoples of comparatively recent culture, much less testifying to an initiation of the earliest ages of economic civilization in the use of money

Yes there was the monumental moment in history:
The early development of accounting dates back to ancient Mesopotamia, and is closely related to developments in writingcounting and money[1][4][5] and early auditingsystems by the ancient Egyptians and Babylonians.[2] By the time of the Emperor Edrian Henio, the Roman government had access to detailed financial information.

We did no h got it wrong with his regression theoryave money until the resources are surveyed and goods accounted for.  The reason is simple, price is a ratio and ratio will not work unless information about social scarcity of goods is known.

Rothbard got it wrong with the regression theory, the idea that a commodity works as money because yesterday's prices give rise to today's prices.  Close but not correct.  It is not yesterdays prices, it is yesterday's account of social goods.  Wer cannot price until we have an account of social scarcity, accounting first then money.  

Consider bartering a gold coin for a large horse.  What is the price? Dunno, the herdsman may have a thousand horses over the hill.  Until I have an estimate of the total number of horses available, I cannot match the correct number of coins.

What about block chain?

A great ledger system and knowledge of where things are makes pricing possible.  But block chain is not enough, we also need A&L terch to define the scarcity of money.

Millennials gonna be the fall guys

Valuations on Wall Street may be stretched by a number of metrics, but that’s not stopping the market’s youngest investors from thinking that now is a good time to jump in.According to a quarterly investment survey from E*Trade Financial ETFC, -0.05%nearly a third of millennial investors—defined as ones between the ages of 25 and 34—are planning to move out of cash and into new positions over the coming six months. By comparison, only 19% of Generation X investors (aged 35-54) are planning such a change to their portfolio, while 9% of investors above the age of 55 are planning to buy in.

Uber took my advice

NEW YORK (AP) -- Riding-sharing company Uber plans to launch its own credit card, partnering with the British bank Barclays.The card will be coming later this year, Barclays said last week.Uber would be the first of the riding-sharing companies to have a co-branded credit card, which are a popular way for companies to cement customer loyalty. They typically give points or credits toward awards, with the most popular cards offering airlines and hotels.
I said that this is the path to profits a few weeks ago.  Wow, that was quick! Send me my usual fee. 

But Uber has a reliable customer than they have a reliable budget so they can derive credit risk from customer ride activities. This is a trustless network, but well managed.  So, offer the credit card in either fiat or bitcoin.

I turned down the CEO job at Uber, it requires frequent bathing to look cool and all.

My favorite chapter of American history

Whiskey Rebellion

 has the real scoop on the events

Distributed clearing system

‘Exchange Union can play a key role connecting exchanges across the world and enabling the full potential of the internet of value. RSK technologies, such as the Lumino network, will allow Exchange Union members to trade up to 20,000 transactions per second of any kind of digital asset. We will pay close attention to this promising project and support its development.’
The sandbox being constructed from the pages of this blog.  

Once set up the sidechain branding work which opens up the 60 trillion dollar global economy open to bitcoin trusted distributions.  One might consider that big banks could build bankers' coin on this.  Have he CEOs e mail me.

Inflation causes unemployment?

Chart from business cycle dot com, via ZeroHedge.  The coefficient sucks, one could almost draw the line with opposite slope and  fit.

The real problem here is that unemployment swings wildly during the recession and recovery, as does prices.  So, whatever the phillips curve is, likely things happen to fast to notice.

The millennials are signing the debt ledger?

Treasury To Issue Half A Trillion Dollars In Debt In Q4

Once issued the millennials will pay interest charges forever if our secretary of interest payments has is way.  That long term debt the millennials promise to cover is wealth insurance, it guarantees the wealthy first seat at the table.   I hope you have all though this through.  It looks like a regular 100 billion a year will be tacked on to our regular 550 billion a year, a 20% rise in the debt portion of the budget, swamping anything else the Swampers had planned.

I should apply

Scaramucci Fired As Trump's Communications Director After Just 10 Days

I could learn them the real politically incorrect

My socialist solution to medicine still stands

Actually it was Brad Delong's idea, he said it in jest years ago and I ran with it.

It is the militarized emergency medical corps, a branch of the armed forces tasked with emergency medical care.  The federal government runs the emergency wards in the nation and the battle field. It does no more. Legally it is akin to the post office, but branched off the military.

Our medical schools will generate MDs and techs certified for emergency care.  They have their own medical uniforms.  They do medical logistics and transport.  On the federal salary.

I don't recommend it, but if Swampcare is your thing, limit your exposure to this only. It is single payer, egalitarian and utilitarian.

Stumbling and Mumbling, get out of the box for once

Is actually-existing capitalism a fair or a rigged game? 

One of the kanosian blogs.  let me go through some econ 101.

They tell me in econ 101 that supply and demand operate under competition.

Right there, you have a monopoly central  bank, you are a rigged game, you rigged the game on purpose.  That is why the wealthier get wealthier, the game that Stumbling and Mumbling rigged favors the rich, the author is directly responsible and the answer he seeks is day one, econ 101, he flunked the class.

Technology and Bernanke have over ruled monetary policy

Will Trump Try to ‘Overrule’ Monetary Policy?

Two things are going on that Mark Thoma never figured out in the post.  

Thing one is that we have an IOER now, a rule change that basically requires Thoma to go back to the lab and redo his theory.  He can warp his theory to fit Magic Walrus, no problem, but he cannot be spouting the same of Kanosian talking points until he fixes the talking point to fit the new rule.

Thing two, the new technology is here/. Basically the market has decided to just pursue the new monetary technology, thus Thoma and the basket weavers do not have to redo Magic Walrus for IOER, they have to redo Magic Walrus for the auto-traded cash network.

The astonishing part is that we have had IOER for nearly ten years.  In in that ten years not one of the kanosians ever thought that maybe, just maybe, the original talking point needs to be adjusted.  

It is the US, not Russia that is bankrupt

"In Putin's mind, if it's worth doing, its worth overdoing," said Chollet, who is now the executive vice president for security and defense policy at The German Marshall Fund. "The scale of the cuts he's  demanding are significant, even by Cold War standards."Chollet noted that the standoff could be "an opening bid for Trump to try find a pathway to better relations with Russia.""That seems to be what the Kremlin is hoping for," he added.Dmitri Peskov, the Kremlin's spokesman, told reporters on Monday that "the will to normalize" US-Russia relations "should be placed on the record."

Russia does not need 755 US bureaucrats  to help manage his economy, they are American socialist idiots who would most likely drive Russia to bankruptcy.  So, for the sake of the world economy, thank god we dumped another batch of worthless bureaucrats.

California's make shit up court may give totalitarianism a basis in law

San Diego Union:

The chief complaint labor unions had about San Diego’s five-year old pension cuts is one of two issues the state Supreme Court plans to consider when reviewing an April appeals court decision that vindicated the city.

This is the California legal system, ignore the US constitution and make shit up.  It looks like the union run supreme court is looking for a way to give legislative powers permanently to the unions.  

 How did the catholic church leave California without any basis in law?  Freaked out Spaniards without a clue suffering from castration complex after the islamics whooped their ass.

Women voted for the crap, make them pay for it

Millennials will live to be a thousand years old?

Talking about Amazon and, as Arnold Kling puts it, the 600 year payback period for buying their stock.

As FRoger Farmer discovered, folksactually die,  He did some research on aggregate economics and, working backwards, discovered life is finite, about 70 years.So what is driving the longevity dreams?

Bernanke and his 2.4 T loan to the Swamp.  That unamortized loan requires low rates and low volatility and yields the 600 year payback period.  So, in fact, the market is the temporary money after Ben fouled the government fiat.  Amazon, like Uber, perform banking services in a Bernanke TBTG insurance system.


CPS' latest borrowing deal: $500 million in loans, $850 million in interest and years more of debt

The loan adds to the mountain of interest costs CPS has taken on to deal with its ongoing cash crisis and lack of adequate reserves. The bonds were issued not long after the district took out short-term loans to cover delayed state grants that the Tribune reported cost CPS $70,000 a day in interest.

Sunday, July 30, 2017

Imam calls for castration of muslim males

Riverside imam stirs criticism after sermon calling Muslim men 'unjust tyrants' and praying to 'castrate them'

Sure, why not

No longer sure they can rely on the United States, an increasing number of South Korean lawmakers say their country should develop its own nuclear arsenal to deter an attack by Kim Jong Un, their belligerent neighbor to the north.North Korea’s rapid missile advances, including successful tests of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) in July and again on Friday, are reviving calls for South Korea to assert its “nuclear sovereignty.” South Koreans are wary of President Donald Trump’s isolationist rhetoric and his calls for Asian allies to shoulder more of the defense burdens borne by the U.S. military.“Trump’s ‘America-first’ policy has triggered this kind of public sentiment,” said Moon Chung In, a top national security adviser to South Korean President Moon Jae In. Trump also has wavered on his commitment to defending South Korea, he said, including suggesting during the campaign that South Korea and Japan should develop their own nuclear arsenals.
And US engineers can help, just like Russian engineers helped the Dim Kim Son. 

Health insurance will be illegal in some counties

Secretary of Health and Human Services Tom Price would not rule out Sunday the possibility of using his regulatory authority to waive the Affordable Care Act’s individual mandate that requires all Americans to buy health insurance or pay a tax.“All things are on the table to try to help patients,” Price told Martha Raddatz on ABC’s “Thisb Week.”
By this time next year, there will be a large section of counties with no insurance companies.  Meanwhile, buying individual  insurance on the open market is now illegal.  Folks will go without or open market health insurance has to  e offered.

Putin cuts Swamp budget

Putin Expels 755 US Diplomats

Americans rejoice, finally a Republican that doesn't  increase spending.

Swamp debt and growth

Debt is the red line, as a percentage of GDP.  It jumped by 5 points  in mid 2015, and seems to be stuck,up.  Yet growth, blue line)  is still sub 2%.  I do not see anything in the latest growth rate is any different then the immediate past.

This is a government economy whose growth is basically COLA which we can see in each of the Q1 prints.  At the beginning of each year we pay our taxes and get our COLA. We have mostly negative growth during that quarter.

What happened to federal interest charges?

They went up by about 50 billion:

We can see the  blue line rise since 2015.  Interest charge are up 50 billion.  When Congress raises the debt limit, interest charges will jump by a similar amount.  So, at the minimum, Congress needs to find another long term 100 billion interest charge stream.  It cannot find it, and Janet will be QEing.

Debbie Wasserman Schultz and the Pakistani IT Scammers

As you let all that sink in, consider this: Awan and his family cabal of fraudsters had access for years to the e-mails and other electronic files of members of the House’s Intelligence and Foreign Affairs Committees. It turns out they were accessing members’ computers without their knowledge, transferring files to remote servers, and stealing computer equipment — including hard drives that Awan & Co. smashed to bits of bytes before making tracks.

Read more at:

Dingbatism survives.

Show me where in this job series the stimulus had an effect

We are hearing, once again, the old Romer canar that all things happen in the Swamp. 

So where is the jobs bump? We cannot see it?  How is this jobs cycle different from any of the others.

If you look closely one can see a tiny blip at the point of stimulus impact, but it immediately settled to trend.  That blip is more in tune with Taylor's report on jobs impact.

Her assumption is wrong, all hings are not caused by Swamp moves.

A forced default is a good idea

Think about it. The Fed has excess gains. The currency banker is never expected to keep bit error at zero always.  So, a 50 billion default puts the Fed bit error negative.  It can make it up in the near term, depending on its published error bounds. It is an accounting reality, the necessity of accounting for currency risk and pricing over local perturbations. It has one big advantage, it dumps time, it gets the Fed into the sandbox, early.

Some of the default is fair, it should have happened years ago. A much of the rest is simply marking to market recorded inflation losses, the accumulated losses from our COLA government..

Dealing with the two bitcoin blockchains

I think it is fairly simple.  Miners will offer service on both and have varying ledger queues managed by ledger fees. At stability, the two queues should trade at some fractional par, to a tradebook precision.  The second chain is likely ideal for the new breed of VC firms with great investment ideas.

A simple secure element for bank clearing

I deal with the problem of a small collection of banks clearing branded crypto coins at par over a distributed point to point network.

Each of the N bank has a simple secure element that contains the public keys of all corresponding banks servicing the crypto coin as custodial units of exchange. Banks have a simple protocol:

Take these coins
OK, here are your coins in return.

With all the appropriate timeouts.

Each bank maintains a queue for clearing any of the other N-1 banks.  Clearing requests occur when the custodial coin is checked in or out, or when clients deposit custodial coins from another bank.

When a particular queue for clearing lengthens, even as all the queues are service round robin, then a ledger fee is raised for clients depositing that particular brand. Queue length must be stable, though differing brands have differing liquidity series; resulting in a difference in queue size.

The secure element, for a small number of banks, say 100 max, is a manageable process, current hardware secure processors can implement the protocol.

Saturday, July 29, 2017

Kind of like Amazon, Uber and Tesla

The plethora of companies propped up by the European Central Bank will limit policy makers’ ability to withdraw monetary stimulus that’s been supporting the continent’s bond market since the financial crisis, according to strategists at Bank of America Corp. About 9 percent of Europe’s biggest companies could be classified as the walking dead, companies that risk collapse if the support dries up, according to the analysts.“Monetary support in Europe over the last five years has allowed companies with weak profitability to continue to refinance their debt and stave off defaults,” analysts led by Barnaby Martin wrote in a note Monday. “This supports the point that our economists have been making: that the ECB will likely be very slow and patient in removing their extraordinary stimulus over the next year and a half.”
Low rates, low  volatility means low yielding companies survive.

Sounds like a kanosian plot

When a fellow Rollins College student accused Nicholas Mancini of sexual assault in January 2016, Mancini told campus investigatorsthat his accuser had "initiated all physical contact with him 'without asking for his consent.'" Mancini also maintained that the incident had been limited to some kissing, which his accuser had stopped, "stating that she should not 'do this' because she has a boyfriend." According to Mancini, the college's Title IX coordinator advised him "to not make a report concerning his Consent Complaint and threatened him to 'stay quiet' about his Consent Complaint."Mancini's account may or may not be accurate. It's just one side of the story. Sexual misconduct hearings exist precisely for the purpose of resolving parties' conflicting narratives and determining, as accurately as possible, who is telling the truth.But Nicholas Mancini didn't get a hearing.Instead, after notifying Mancini of nothing more than the bare fact that "a report of sexual assault had been alleged" against him, the college launched an investigation into the incident and determined, without a hearing, that Mancini had violated the college's sexual misconduct policy. He was suspended for two semesters (with the direction that a notation of the suspension be placed on his transcript) and permanently barred from campus housing.
We can pull this shit in California, but in the other states, Due Process still applies.

Bitcoin hard fork going well

Major Exchanges Embrace Bitcoin Cash

Multiple bitcoin exchanges have signaled support for ‘Bitcoin Cash.’ This news comes alongside the inevitability that a UAHF event will occur.
Last week, detailed many of the exchanges and platforms that will be rejecting Bitcoin Cash (BCC), but now more appear to be settling into the idea that it will exist as a legitimate digital token. At the time of writing, futures of BCC are being traded on Viabtc’s exchange for roughly $390.
It looks as if we pass the rescaling technology upgrade in better shape with a brighter future.  And, we can deal with two blockchains, not a problem. 

So how is the central bank scaling upgrade coming?

Not well, the senate may not be able to afford the extra 150 billion in interest charges due. Janet will have to go QEing.

Timmy sells out to commie rats

APPLE Removes Apps From China That Help Internet Users Evade Censorship...

Democrats are stuck with California

Democrats See Chance To Win Back Working Class Whites

Magic Walrus stats won't help.

California is a permanent racist anti-white state.  As long as California is in the union, Dems winning anything is going to be difficult. Nancy Pelosi gets on TV and talks about anti-white policies she is pursuing.

I did not read the post, not worth the bother.  I know what the idiot did, he took statistics as if this were a unified electorate. It is not. You have a racist, unconstitutional state in California and most of the voters will not support the place, and screw the Dem party if they cannot get California to obey the constitution for once.

Debbie-Wasserman-Schultz apparent dingbat

As you let all that sink in, consider this: Awan and his family cabal of fraudsters had access for years to the e-mails and other electronic files of members of the House’s Intelligence and Foreign Affairs Committees. It turns out they were accessing members’ computers without their knowledge, transferring files to remote servers, and stealing computer equipment — including hard drives that Awan & Co. smashed to bits of bytes before making tracks.

Sandbox vs Sessions

A new Department of Justice (DOJ) directive from Attorney General Jeff Sessions makes it more important than ever to own cryptocurrency and to do so outside of digital exchanges which function like traditional banks; translation, they will rush to obey law enforcement agencies. The new directive expands the power of civil asset forfeiture for federal agents, allowing them to sidestep laws in the 20 states that currently restrict the practice.
Sandbox will win. 

Homeless in California? Blame the Kanosians

Consumables are in outright deflation, housing and medical care, way up, mainly because of Swamp debt.

So, if you are homeless, ask yourself, did you vote for a Kanosians thinking things would get better?  Yes? Then enjoy the streets.

Kanosians  made insurance companies rich with infinite price fixing.  This trend would continue except it is driving the economy into recession.

Trump is exactly what we want

Kanosians would have us grow at 1% for the next 50 years, but that is impossible.  The senate is bankrupt as we ned 3% growth and pay the debt.

The only way progressives get out of the mess is to grant another 100 billion in wealth to Goldman and the wealth club, how else do the progressives intend to pay the interest charges?

Trump will do a Nixon shock, let us move on to a better central bank and allow us alternative currencies

We were supposed to castrate muslim mem

Mohamed Elmouelhy, the head of Australia’s Halal Certification Authority, publicly commented on Facebook to state that white Australian women need Muslim men to fertilize them and “keep them surrounded by Muslim babies.”Elmouelhy’s intolerant views led him to declare that the “white race will be extinct” in 40 years.The certification chief, who immigrated to Australia in 1975 and became a citizen in 1981, made his comments in response to a study in Human Reproduction Update from Israeli researchers in Hebrew University, which revealed declining fertility rates among men in North America, Europe, Australia, and New Zealand.
On account of muslim men seem to be ignorant dicks and a bit psycho. They make women wear tents

Friday, July 28, 2017

She still spirals

NEW YORK (Reuters) - With Republican efforts to dismantle Obamacare in disarray, hundreds of U.S. counties are at risk of losing access to private health coverage in 2018 as insurers consider pulling out of those markets in the coming months.
Republican senators failed this week to repeal and replace Obamacare, former President Barack Obama's signature healthcare reform law, creating new uncertainty over how the program providing health benefits to 20 million Americans will be funded and managed in 2018.
In response, Republican President Donald Trump on Friday again suggested that his administration would let the Obamacare program “implode.” He has weakened enforcement of the law’s requirement for individuals to buy insurance, threatened to cut off funding and sought to change plan benefits through regulations.
Anthem Inc, Cigna Corp, Health Care Service Corp and Molina Healthcare, four of the biggest health insurers selling Obamacare plans, said they are weighing whether to pull out of more markets for 2018 rather than face financial losses. They have until Sept. 27 to finalize their plans.
At this point the economy has larger concerns, specifically the 150 billion in new interest charges we get upon signing the debt increase.  There is no source for that do-re-me, unless he 100 wealthiest made 150 billion over the cycle. Otherwise, Jane will be doing the QE. 

Good GDP report?

The first GDP number is due today. Estimates range from 2.2 to 2.7, mostly. Thus the calendar year GDP growth is tracking above 2%, so far so good.

Next up, taxes and debt limit.

And the board says:

In the latest double negative whammy for the economy, not only did Q2 GDP print fractionally less than expected, at 2.6% vs consensus expectations of 2.7%, but Q1 GDP of 1.4% was also revised slightly lower, from 1.4% to 1.2%, while the Fed's favorite inflationary metric, core PCE, tumbled from a downward revised 1.8% to 0.9%.

So yearly gdp tracks just under 2% 

Thursday, July 27, 2017

More obstetrics and pediatrics


Martin Feldstein wants to know if reducing the onerous taxes on the middle class will help build families.  I think it does, I actually think entitlement taxes kill families.

When stocks decorrelate

Corporations looking less like a heard was the subject of a research note from JPM, and it send the NASDEQ down.

I didn't  read it. The reaction  seems a sign the stock bubble has pierced, index momentum gone.

As a company, bitcoin is worth 40 billion

It offers a worldwide exchange service over the internet between a network of untrusted parties for a small ledger fee.  As a high tech company, a conservative evaluation, compared to the ledger fees on the USD, and a PE of 40, make it 40 B, not counting ad revenue.

Bitcoin is not worth nothing as some mistakenly believe, like gold, bitcoin has a permanent demand for its service.  Add branded side chains, custodial coin, secure element then its value should quadruple, without even considering it money.

But wait, that's not all

The market size for bankers' coin, utilizing a hardware secure distributed clearing system, should be four times the market size for bitcoin.  Bankers' coin should grab the lion's share of domestic retail purchases.  The currently non existent company wis worth 200 billion.

Wednesday, July 26, 2017

Taxing the Koch socialists

White House chief strategist Steve Bannon supports paying for middle-class tax cuts with a new top rate of 44 percent for Americans who make more than $5 million a year, according to a person familiar with his thinking.It’s unclear whether President Donald Trump would support the move, which would bring the top rate, currently 39.6 percent, to the highest level in 30 years. Trump has said he’s focused on tax changes that would help the middle class, but an analysis this month of the tax outline the White House released in April shows it would mostly benefit top earners.
Couple the proposal with across the board sequester and cuts only. 

TenX debit card

I have seen a few articles on this new debit card.  It does merchant transactions in the local fiat currency and instantly debits a crypto account at market prices last seen. Requires a round trip to their exchange. The fee is 2%, the limit is $2000. 

A recurring challenge for bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies is how to make them work in the real world. A Singapore-based startup says the answer is its Visa card.
TenX is pitching its debit card as an instant converter of multiple digital currencies into fiat money: the dollars, yen and euros that power most everyday commerce. The company said it takes a 2 percent cut from each transaction and has received orders for more than 10,000 cards. While transactions are capped at $2,000 a year, users can apply to increase the limit if they undergo identify verification procedures. 
Tenx’s bid to make digital currencies easier to spend comes amid massive volatility and infighting within the cryptocurrency community. Bitcoin, the most popular, slumped after reaching a record in June amid concerns about a split in two, only to recover as fears faded. The company has built an app that serves as a digital wallet connected to the Visa card so that when it’s swiped at a cafe or restaurant, the merchant is paid in local currency and the users’ crypto account is debited.

The company manages he delay between current market price and the actual exchange from crypto to the fiat. That delay is bettable, pricing asked might includes ledger fees.

This is really a virtual branded side chain.  Their site, having to carry bitcoin ledger and price risk, accounts for its position in net crypto in and out it its denomination algebra, it acts like a custodial coin issuer.  It is trusted network, and like any debit/credit card; it is subject to card not present fraud ($20 billion a year USD),  Hence it needs the extended 'biometrics' to raise the 'debt' limit.


The fixed rate cannot be applied, it is variable and the currencies are meant not to be correlated, except at coin exchanges. If you fix the rate you favor the currency for which denomination match the ledger congestion and ledger fee.

The competition is simply deploying real, branded side chains.  They will be fully functional money market cards; also assuming trusted network.

And S&P says

NEW YORK (Reuters) - A sluggish forecast for U.S. economic growth as well as an increase in U.S. states' Medicaid and pension contribution costs is creating a budgetary squeeze in many state capitols, according to a research report issued by S&P Global Ratings on Monday.
Without a possible bump in growth from a federal infrastructure package, projected GDP growth for 2017 was lowered to 2.2 percent from 2.3 percent, the report said.
The report added that the U.S. mid-Atlantic region (New Jersey, New York and Pennsylvania) will have the slowest growing economy compared to other regions. Real GDP growth for the region is projected at 1.25 percent for 2017, the report said.
My take is they think potential growth is about  2%.  They are a bit optimistic, last year growth was 1.6%, this year Q1 was 1.4% RGDP growth, and we will likely be under 2% for the calendar year.  We are the COLA economy.

LA Mayor: Let's move the world's poor to LA County

In this report we find that three professors have answered the age old problem, how can California create a steadily increasingly stream of homeless people into LA.   Three professors propose a parcel tax, one that insures nearly a billion a year to pay the moving expenses of the world's poor people during their trip to LA:
But this “small land tax” of $3 a day is equal to $1,100 a year.  And based on 785,000 parcels in the City, City Hall would be flooded with $860 million a year, a truly scary thought given the lack fiscal responsibility and managerial competence of our elected officials.   This $860 million in new taxes is the equivalent of a 16% increase in our property taxes, a 1.3 cent bump in our sales tax, or a 15% increase in the City’s $5.8 billion budget.  It is over $200 for every Angeleno and over $850 for a family of four.  

Tuesday, July 25, 2017

Funded by the other 49

California secession campaign can start gathering signatures

An idea on Fed balance sheet

At the next meeting the Fed should create an account, Fed gains and losses during the current monetary cycle.  Then the Fed should wipe out 50 billion of its treasuries and enter them as losses at market  price.

After the hysteria boils over, the senators are presented with a conflict. The Fed could easily make up the loss with retained earning submitted to the same account, a reduction in the senators' interest subsidy. This simple act establishes an independent corridor function, a flexible wedge between savings rates and loan rates.  It makes a bit error process.

The main force in a bit error function, in this case, is the ability to opportunistically default a chunk of the Swamp debt on the books. Do it in small increments without over-stressing the financial conditions index.  It is direct inflation on a loss, direct deflation on a gain in the bit error process.

The 50 billion is a 30 basis point jump in prices.  But is double entry accounting is neutral then all the prior fake inflation in the cycle is reversing.    Like right now at this moment, a large majority of consumer items have dropped in price.  We are headed toward increasing periods of deflation, a negative over all index, if the neutral theory is true.  So, these new bit error losses are post dated, should have happened in 2001, for example.  The Fed, being price neutral should have accumulated losses upon real growth, it should have been 'snookered'.

Snookering the Fed

The interest charges are computed ex post, so there is an inherent assumption about the likely interest charges going forward for some large loan. It is asynchronous, adaptable; charge applied according to current conditions.  But the system is semi-repeatable, and the  loan and deposit queues have momentum.

But is a set of insiders take a large loan, then use it to minimize inventory volatility, they gain rents on saved capacity, and return the dough as deposits.  The shrewd will catch the Fed debt machine unawares, and it will pay a slightly too high deposit rate, resulting in a loss.  But prices stay neutral, there is no deflation from higher productivity. This is called adiabatic change, there is no requantization the change is within bit error, hence none of the congestion losses typical of requantization.

The Congressional anti-gravity machine is working

So, Janet has reduced our seigniorage fees, she raised interest charges on the senators and increased interest payments to member banks.  That 2.4T investment in the senators is paying off, everything works in their production!

Or not, maybe the Fed is mis-interpreting, as in the title, 'Broken  Transition' should read 'Broken Interpretation'.  I think we are all Deja Vued out regarding the senators. We are just getting back some of the interest payments the Fed took in the recent years and the economy is still the doldrums. We are ready to net present value the senate down a few notches.

A Btc hard fork is fine and dandy

One miner segment wants to take voluntary accounts over to a larger block chain format without the Segwit.  The other has already adopted Segwit. Both will find niches, and the value of the niches, in sum,  greater than their separate parts, together. Now it should pay off, it is not a crowded market.  If they do it too often the ledger network becomes transaction costly, jammable.

No arb cash can watch the respective ledger queues and price stability in the coin price ratio. The two should trade at par, minus two tradebook uncertainties. The second trade uncertainty is the comparative congestion among the two ledgers, it is measured across exchanges.

Works fine, or  still works fine if you don't. We will S&L it and micro price all the queues.

With all the racism in the Cal Dem Party, who would notice this infraction?


Evolution in action

UK Mirror:
Sperm levels among Western men have plunged to a record low, new research reveals.
It has fallen by more than 50% in 40 years – and is showing no signs of slowing down.

The study did not examine causes but scientists believe the amount of ­chemicals used in everyday products, industry and farming may be behind the crisis.
Researchers from the Hebrew University-Hadassah Braun School of Public Health and Community Medicine and the Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, screened 7,500 studies that took place between 1973 and 2011.

VIX, what is it?

It is constructed using the implied volatilities of a wide range of S&P 500 index options. This volatility is meant to be forward looking, is calculated from both calls and puts, and is a widely used measure of market risk, often referred to as the "investor fear gauge."
Read more: VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) 

When VIX is high that means the expected prices of the index are all over the map.  Everyone is ignoring the index and pricing stocks individually based on fundamentals.

When VIX is low that means all the traders are 'waiting for Janet'. Usually, when waiting for Janet the one year is low and the index and the one year tend to converge.  I has another name, wealthier getting much wealthier while waiting for Janet to subsidize the Swamp.

Sandbox needs S&L tech says BofA

A discussion of BofA's report on crypto says  that we need to pledge bitcoin as collateral. That means a margin technology, or savings and loan technology is not there.  Bitcoiners? Getting the message?

Still, bitcoin and ethereum have delivered impressive returns so far as fiat currency flowed into these digital tokens. Is it realistic to assume cryptocurrencies will continue to appreciate over time? The dollar price of gold has appreciated over centuries in line with inflation, but some periods have experienced much faster gold price appreciation than others. Moreover, periods of high real interest rates have been particularly damaging for gold returns in the past. In our view, cryptocurrency returns will mostly depend on the faith placed by individuals, corporations, and financial institutions on this emerging technology. As discussed earlier, there are large inherent risks to digital tokens such as fraud, hacking, outright theft, new protocol adoption, limited acceptance, and that it is not legal tender in many places in the world. Moreover, a crucial hurdle remains. Most regulated financial institutions allow their clients to borrow against financial or physical assets, but we are not aware of any major institution that takes cryptocurrency as collateral at the moment. Thus, in our view, a key step for bitcoin would be for it to become pledgeable collateral.

How can bitcoin get this done?

Custodial, branded side chain assuming trusted network.  Pledge a bitcoin wallet as bit error capital and go offer loan to saving auto trading, like a credit/debit card combined, or like a money market with asynchronous terms.  Be sure and dump time, leave term debt to the smart layer where default insurance is available. 

When you attempt monopoly banking your ability to price goes away

I get tired of these bozos.  

Basic econ says we need some competition to get efficiency. These two nuts never thought that the rule might apply to currency banking, simply stupid.

Unions take most of it

California’s funding of education has gone from $50.4 billion in the fiscal year that ended in 2012 to $74.5 billion for the current fiscal year – a nearly 50 percent increase that’s far above the less than 9 percent increase in the Consumer Price Index over the same span.Nevertheless, this summer has seen a steady stream of stories from school districts up and down the state warning of tight budgets, coming layoffs and worse. Ron Bennett, CEO of School Services of California, which advises more than 85 percent of the state’s nearly 1,000 districts, told the Bay Area News Group that one-third of districts face deficit spending in the 2018-19 school year and two-thirds do in 2019-20.
Then all the school districts go on a low interest rate construction binge fueled by corrupt school board kickbacks. So, I say we should refuse to pay taxes. 

Monday, July 24, 2017

California is where the GOP states send the sick

California prepares to fight GOP attempts to undermine Obamacare

Among the strategies is a fallback plan in case the Trump administration eliminates the subsidies that help low-income Obamacare enrollees pay for out-of-pocket medical expenses. And should Trump use his executive powers to weaken the enforcement of a critical part of the law — the individual mandate requiring people to have health insurance or pay a steep tax penalty — California could impose its own.Finally, if Trump curtails the advertising surrounding the upcoming 2018 enrollment season, as his administration did last winter to drive down the number of sign-ups, Covered California can rely on its own robust budget for marketing and outreach efforts.
That is the plot. 

The GOP generally blames California for the entitlement imbalance.  A fair  outcome  is to send all the sick to California to live on the streets  of LA. The mayor of LA likes the idea..

Laser hair removal is a right for everyone

UC-Berkeley Adds "Laser Hair Removal" To Student Health Plan

The University of California, Berkeley will soon add “laser hair removal” and “fertility preservation” to the list of “transgender student services” covered by its student health insurance plan.

Cannot discriminate based on gender(s) according to some Swamp money requirement. 

 So, men, feel free to get a laser shave, courtesy of the professors' pension.