Thursday, July 13, 2017

Deficit rises 109 billion to nearly 700 billion

CBO reporting:

Receipts and outlays alike were higher than they were last year, but outlays rose much more. In its most recent budget projections, CBO estimated that the deficit for fiscal year 2017 (which will end on September 30, 2017) would total $693 billion, about $109 billion more than the shortfall in fiscal year 2016.he largest increases in outlays were the following: 

  • Outlays for the three largest mandatory spending programs increased by a total of $45 billion (or 3 percent). 
  • Social Security benefits increased by $21 billion (or 3 percent), reflecting typical recent growth in the number of beneficiaries and in the average benefit payment. 
  • Medicare spending grew by $18 billion (or 4 percent), reflecting typical growth in the number of beneficiaries and growth in the cost of services for those beneficiaries. 
  • Medicaid spending grew by $6 billion (or 2 percent), in part because of new enrollees added through expansions of coverage authorized by the Affordable Care Act. 
  • Net interest on the public debt increased by $28 billion (or 13 percent), largely because of differences in the rate of inflation. To account for inflation, the Treasury Department adjusts the principal of its inflation-protected securities each month.
  • Outlays for the Department of Education rose by $31 billion (or 51 percent), because the department revised upward, by roughly $39 billion, the estimated net subsidy costs of loans. 
Our problem?

With nearly a 100% probability the chart shows blue bar appears shortly after deficit rises. Look at the chart below, not the blue bars.  Why, this is the opposite of what the Magic Walrus says. So we really want to make the jump to 2017, sort of pretend Congress and the Trumptster have nothing to do and spending is sequestered.

Ned will invert the curve before the debt limit hike, or Goldman-Sachs will let the ten year rise and crush housing.

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