Sunday, July 30, 2017

Swamp debt and growth

Debt is the red line, as a percentage of GDP.  It jumped by 5 points  in mid 2015, and seems to be stuck,up.  Yet growth, blue line)  is still sub 2%.  I do not see anything in the latest growth rate is any different then the immediate past.

This is a government economy whose growth is basically COLA which we can see in each of the Q1 prints.  At the beginning of each year we pay our taxes and get our COLA. We have mostly negative growth during that quarter.

What happened to federal interest charges?

They went up by about 50 billion:

We can see the  blue line rise since 2015.  Interest charge are up 50 billion.  When Congress raises the debt limit, interest charges will jump by a similar amount.  So, at the minimum, Congress needs to find another long term 100 billion interest charge stream.  It cannot find it, and Janet will be QEing.

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