Saturday, August 19, 2017

Time plotting

A survivor's option bond (or certificate of deposit) is a bond (or CD) that can be held by two people in a joint account, and if one of them dies, the bond can be redeemed immediately at par. Many of these bonds traded at a discount to par, and Lathen had the bright yet also undeniably dark idea of finding terminally ill people (in hospices and nursing homes), buying discounted survivor option bonds jointly with them, and then redeeming them at par when the people died. This worked quite well, and Lathen ended up setting up a hedge fund to run the strategy using investor money.
Issuer of CD  being quite dumb. 

Friday, August 18, 2017

Which pronoun generates the largest check?

Only In Cali: New Bill Would Imprison Healthcare Workers For Using Incorrect Pronouns With Patients

Central bankers need to surrender

Bitcoin Cash soared overnight, spiking as high as $569 (from below $300) as renewed uncertainty around Bitcoin re-forking, reports that the first 8mb block has been mined, and fears over further crackdowns in China on Bitcoin trading sparked demand for the forked currency, pushing it back up to the 3rd biggest cryptocurrency by market cap.

  • Federal interest charges are the fourth largest of the four large budget items, and interest charges were rising at 10% a year the last time I looked. The fastest rising cost for Congress.
  • Federal interest charges cannot be paid in any downturn without QE from Janet.
  • Federal interest charges rise, then bitcoin rises because bitcoin predicts QE
  • Federal interest charges are bankruptcy in the sandbox technology absent some amortization.  The sandbox prices the Fed balance sheet and Congress is the sole borrower.

Adaptation costs for new Swamp programs

How many years, prior to Obamacare, have I bitched about the obvious adaption costs for No Child Left Behind. It took ten years and two major program changes to get the thing stable and it wreaked havoc on the pension liability system leaving open multiple opportunities for double dipping.

The nurses union is doing the same to Obamacare.  They, the Dems and the Repubs all knew that the state exchanges revealed the large/small state skew, raising costs. They kept the exchange system because it allowed cheating at the margin, that was  he original intent.

Hence, Obamacare spirals.

The sandbox does it different

"Theory vs. Data" in statistics too

There is an economic debate about 'deep learning'.  

In the sandbox, 'deep learning' means to mark to market inside information with the minimum number of transactions.  This is pure cash, by definition. It works because we know the distribution of information and distribution of goods have isomorphic, reduced graphs.  We know this because we can show a Huffman decoding tree also minimizes congestion on the decoding tree. And under the assumption of maximizing entropy we get isomorphic equivalence.

We need not know much more, we need to get our  automatic liquidity trading pits working.

I would express my opinion

Out of this week’s orgy of self-righteousness has come toppled statues in the South, a vandalized Lincoln Memorial in the North, a Democratic state senator in the Midwest calling for the assassination of President Trump, and numerous other examples of “progressive” barbarism. It tells you everything you need to know about the rancid condition of “higher education” that the scenes of the greatest irrationality in America today take place in university towns.
Except that Rednecks got banned somewhere in the Orwellian outburst. 

Capn, we're gonna need more dilithium crystal

Ten year 2.18, one year 1.22, curve slope less than a point.  

The secretary of interest payments is running the limit on extraordinary measures and rolling over the short term debt just means interest charges equal the ten year rate.  The treasury curve is, right now, all about stuffing debt to cover interest charges, it will be flatter.

In general, the sandbox supports security patents

San Francisco-based exchange, Coinbase, just received a patent for a security methodology for storing, distributing, and using private keys. The U.S. Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO) approved and published the patent on August 15.  
Years ago I concluded that intellectual property should be allowed regarding security issues. This was especially true on the issue of intelligent cash cards being as safe as possible.

Thursday, August 17, 2017

Cash device market, on the move

Each getting ready for trusted network, the really big thing as the technoweenies like to say. The huge thing, a version 1.0 of the singularity.  Likely the intelligent cash device will be the last intelligent hand held device we build..

Still more spirally

Iowans who buy their own health insurance through the Affordable Care Act exchange would see their rates increase nearly 57 percent next year under a revised rate proposed Wednesday.The proposal is 13 percentage points higher than previously was estimated by Medica, the one remaining carrier selling individual policies in Iowa next year.Medica attributed the additional increase to uncertainties over federal health care subsidies, the insurer said in a release.

They tell me the Rednecks are getting banned

Along with the Alt-R list.

I am all angered and hurt and stuff. Send me a check.

Putin supplies the Dim Kim

While acknowledging the rocket engine used to launch North Korea's most recent intercontinental ballistic missile is the same as the type of engine used by Ukraine-made space vehicles, Ukrainian space agency director Yurii Radchenko said the RD-250 engine technology transferred to North Korea was once used to power Cyclone-2 and Cyclone-3 space rockets supplied to Russia.
The Ukrainian official also said a total of 223 Cyclone-2 and Cyclone-3 rockets were supplied to Russia, suggesting there is a high probability Moscow could have been involved in connecting North Korea to the engines stored in Russian warehouses.
Putin being bad boy 

Tuesday, August 15, 2017

If the swamp borrows more will obamacare become efficient?

The current low-inflation environment offers the perfect opportunity to test whether looser monetary policy can boost productivity growth.
Tim Duy wants to try more low rates.

The low rates sends more ledger fees to congress to pay obamacare expenses. Otherwise the interest charges are sent to the banks.  In either case, the interest charges derive from ledger fees paid by the bond market. A fee that guarantees the right to sit at the table and get early looks at the trade book.

The student loans scare

It is the red bars, student loan debt which is large and new.  Government will back stop the defaults, but the defaults may come in a wave. That means Janet to the rescue.

I regret making fun of dingbats

Fired Google memo writer says he regrets calling women neurotic

Ok,ok; I promise to be a bit nicer to the babes.

Mass triggering?

This Picture Of Mike Pence 'Triggered' An Entire Campus Of California Private College Kids

I invent the emergency triggering alert system.

Parents be assured, our triggering system safely implanted into your child will alert him/her/ish of any potential psycho-threatening contradiction in thought.  

Our system manages potential triggers nationwide with detectors across all campuses.  With probability greater than 85%, your child will receive the brain shock appropriate to the best measured potential trigger in some nearby environment.

Parents rave about our system as their children come home mumbling incoherently.

Pension stampedes

Fresh research from the San Francisco Fed provides an explanation: baby boomers. As they retire in droves, their exit from the workforce is distorting the data for average earnings, according to a blog post published Monday on the bank’s website.
“Wage growth isn’t as disappointing as it looks,” Mary Daly, director of economic research at the San Francisco Fed, said in an interview. “Wage growth, when cleaned up, looks consistent with other measures seen in the labor market.”
 It is the second difference in retirement accounts.   Th retirement systems are complexly bounded with COLAs and fixed share ratios as well as tax   changes, the rising cost of government debt, probability of a recession and commie rat capital controls.  Potential retirees plot, collectively, their retirement to maximize pay off against these complex bounds.   So, treasury see unexpected change in accounts causing volatility in interest charges.   It is a double whammy, hitting in wage taxes and payments out.

The mayor was cool, dated teenager

From well-funded pensions to basket case, San Francisco’s voters are to blame

The kanosians said addinsubtracting warnt needed.

Obamacare taxes in the charts

Locally stable and up  as we see in the last three bars.  That is Obamacare.

Interest charges (integrated) are running a little over 600 billion a year, but rising recently at about 10% a year in the budget.

This is the source of conflict, we have a generation that is being assigned a permanent and large interest charge, and their vote seems useless.  It is not a small number, the jump in charges could be as high as a point of GDP.

Monday, August 14, 2017

Strictly corruption

Matt Levine

Elsewhere in corporate governance:
Since 2016, at least 32 Chinese state-owned companies or units listed in Hong Kong have proposed changes to their corporate structures to install Communist Party committees that advise their boards of directors. The moves, most coming in recent months, are prompting questions from market participants about who holds power at these companies, and whether they will be run for the benefit of investors.

Libertarians are not supporting race policies

Don't matter which groups. But we don't require it of anyone else.

Sunday, August 13, 2017

Side chains without custodial coins

I should go into this a bit.

The side chains run on trusted network, so we can assume individual cash cards obey contract,they do not double spend.  We have two methods to speed up transaction clearing, rel and virtual custodial coins.  Both methods require a small number of clearing banks which can swap account balances at par across a secure point to point network.

Most of the small transactions are balanced before calling block chain, they are balance and stored off line. In the custodial clearing system, each bank runs its own version of the crypto coin and they clear at part.  In the virtual system, the bank transactions are keyed by bank id, as in Swift, the the crypto coins are personal coins.  In either case, double spending prohibited. In the one case, differing version of the same coin are swapped, in the other account balanced over differing bank ids.

Japan did good

Surprise, surprise,  six quarters in a row.

Bring a napkin

'Try-before-you-buy' sex robot unveiled...

Microsoft brings us side chain

One of the most unique aspects of the Coco Framework is that it leverages local hardware-based environments such as Intel’s trusted execution environments (TEEs), to facilitate the settlement of information in an off-chain Ethereum Blockchain ecosystem.By processing data in a separate ecosystem, it allows Microsoft to provide a more functional and flexible infrastructure for decentralized applications.

Trusted networks

Coco achieves this by designing specifically for confidential consortiums, where nodes and actors are explicitly declared and controlled. Based on these requirements, Coco presents an alternative approach to ledger construction, giving enterprises the scalability, distributed governance and enhanced confidentiality they need without sacrificing the inherent security and immutability they expect. 

I have to  go through the white paper to see if they enable custodial coins.  

OK, scanning the white paper we get a Redneck style architecture built on secure elements,  Too much attention the block chain.

Closing the loops
 Each of the major exchanges  swapping source and destinations.
Even without custodial coins, it is reasonable  to segment transactions according to the 'wallet sources', identifying one of several exchanges according to source destination.  In a two step  decomposition, many of the transaction loops can be closed without resorting to the official block chain. Like a virtual custodial coin.

Commie bankers vs sandbox

Bitcoin Blows Through $4000 As Asian Demand Soars

Central bankers are on the clock, we know the roll out sequence.

Saturday, August 12, 2017

Part of the cultural color

Empty market effect

Bitcoin Spikes Over $3800 As Institutional Investor Interest Soars

Like being an 18 year old Bill Gates.

Why did the fork help? It insures we coinage for the fill in markets. The potential block chain denomination algebra is larger (more granular is a better term). 

We know the future of sandbox, the utility of the new money tech is driving adoption. We are building trusted pricing networks, supporting multiple ledger standards.

Government ledger, jammed and unworlable

Bitcoin exchange Bitfinex has just announced that it is pulling out of the US retail market due to the challenging regulatory climate. US customers have approximately 90 days to discontinue all trading, and US holders of ethereum ERC20 tokens have only 5 days to stop trading them on the exchange.
Next year, government can no longer run jammed ledger queue.  Janet will be hedged.

Friday, August 11, 2017

Asian rebalance takes a pause

According to official data, outbound investment by China’s real estate sector fell 82% year-on-year in the first half, to comprise just 2% of all outbound investment for the period.”
Without this, growth will barely make 1.5%.  But it may come back.

Still spirally

(Reuters) - U.S. health insurer Anthem Inc (ANTM.N) said on Friday it will exit Obamacare markets in Virginia and reduce its plan offerings in Washington and Scott counties and the city of Bristol next year.
The move comes nearly two weeks after President Donald Trump took aim at insurers by threatening to cut the healthcare subsidy payments that make Obamacare plans affordable, after repeatedly failing in his efforts to dismantle former President Barack Obama's healthcare law.
Insurers are facing an upheaval in their health insurance businesses due to uncertainty over the healthcare legislation as Republican lawmakers seek to follow through on their promise to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act.
Health insurers, such as UnitedHealth Group Inc (UNH.N), Aetna Inc (AET.N) and Humana Inc (HUM.N), have also exited most of the states where they used to sell plans.
The insurers have asked the government to commit to making the $8 billion in subsidy payments for 2018, saying they may raise rates or leave the individual insurance marketplace if there is too much uncertainty.

Clueless central banker

Inflation has been so low that even if it starts to climb it will not damage the economy,
Fed’s Kashkari added.

“We’ve been around ...a 1.7% [inflation rate]. If inflation starts to climb and we end up at 2.3% or 2.4% or 2.5%, so what,” he said.
Fed’s Kashkari added. 

“We’ve been around ...a 1.7% [inflation rate]. If inflation starts to climb and we end up at 2.3% or 2.4% or 2.5%, so what,” he said.
That extra inflation adds 3/4 of a point onto the ten year which adds about 100 billion additional to the interest charges.  Congress cannot do that without QE help.

Who fouled the American patent law?

So this happened: Apple was just granted a patent on rounded cornersfor rectangular electronic devices. It’s tempting to think that patents are becoming more absurd, but that would be a mistake. The US and other patent bodies have always granted overly broad patents. What’s changed is that courts, in recent years, have started to award damages based on them.

The Swamp is has a patent corruption process, mostly crated by Diane Feinstein, who, dumber than shoes, loosened the patent law.  I think it was her.  It doesn't matter, blame Diane anyway, she is about as useless os a carrot back there.  Here is more: Inc. patented the practice of taking product photos on white backgrounds. IBM recently patented the “out-of-office” email system, despite the fact that everyone has seemingly been using similar systems forever. Alphabet Inc. (Google) patented a baseball cap with a camera on it.
As for the rest of us, nullification of Swamp patent laws are just fine, perfectly acceptable.

Saving and lending ether crypto

The crypto-currency economy provides the environment to democratize the lending market. First, crypto-currency is not effected by FIAT-based currency inflation. Therefore, borrowers are treated equally in positions since they are all borrowing ETH. This means that no government monetary policy or economic change in FIAT-based country affects directly to crypto-currency lending. Secondly, the lending market is open for all lenders and borrowers. It results in lending, that is not restricted by borders, jurisdictions or even by the access to banking system.
Another new company, the first to offer AS&L for crypto.  It is term structured (time dependent) and they will foul it up a bit until they learn default insurance.  It is a start, a tiny step.  The try and calculate volatility over three month periods to insure collateral.  

The better bet is to calculate volatility and charge interest immediately to reduce volatility. This insures that pricing risk is shared.  The Eth needs to be pooled and auto traded, but the block chain may not be fast enough without a custodial coin and trusted network.

Most of this surge is sandbox tech

Funding Conditions for Tech Startups Soar to a New Record
An index tracking business conditions for U.S. private companies surged 44 percent from a year earlier.

This is silicon valley getting a clue, but they may be too late. Sorry for not starting a company but it required frequent bathing. 

Crypto expanding

Some investors are turning to an unlikely safe haven as the rhetoric between U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korea intensifies.Bitcoin, ethereum and other digital currencies, among the most volatile assets around, are gaining in part as traditional refuges such as gold and U.S. Treasuries lose some of their luster.“We’re seeing investors transferring their funds into cryptocurrencies as they try to diversify their risk in case of a severe downturn in the market,” said Ron Chernesky, chief executive officer of trading platform InvestFeed Inc. which is switching from equity trading to cryptocurrencies. “The space has gone from niche to more widely adopted with one of the main draws being that crypto currencies are seen as less correlated with other assets.”
Crypto, especially bitcoin, are anti-correlated with central banks, and central banks are correlated with the crashes.  So, in a down turn when central banks begin manipulating capital the natural reaction is to switch to bitcoin.

Commie Rats denounce Korean unification

China Warns Trump: "We Will Prevent A North Korea Regime Change"

"If the U.S. and South Korea carry out strikes and try to overthrow the North Korean regime and change the political pattern of the Korean Peninsula, China will prevent them from doing so"
Actually the Trump plan is to leave a failed economy on Chinese doorsteps resulting in a flood of hungry refugees invading China.  North Korea and China are both rule by commie rats and the Chinese economy  is in huge debt trouble.  Not only that, Xi Ping Pong in his idiocy is using half his military to defend a mud pile in the China sea, while trying to steal land from India.

Trump should add tariffs and engage India in a military build up. Then Xi Ping Pong can figure out what a bonehead policy he has.

Nobody likes trade with commie rats

"I think China can do a lot more, yes," Trump said. ". . . And I think China will do a lot more."Trump said the United States loses a lot of money on trade with China."It's not going to continue like that. But if China helps us, I feel a lot differently toward trade," Trump added.

Thursday, August 10, 2017

The social justice warriors at Giggles

The website Breitbart, highly influential among conservatives and the Trump administration, interviewed an anonymous Googler who said in part:
“Several managers have openly admitted to keeping blacklists of the employees in question, and preventing them from seeking work at other companies. There have been numerous cases in which social justice activists coordinated attempts to sabotage other employees’ performance reviews for expressing a different opinion. These have been raised to the Senior VP level, with no action taken whatsoever…There have been a number of massive witch hunts where hundreds of SJWs mobilize across the corporate intranet to punish somebody who defied the Narrative…I always fear for my job and operate with the expectation that I will be purged unless something changes…”  

Tim Tebow, Florida hero

One young fan gave Tim Tebow the magic touch to help him hit another minor league home run.While playing in the St. Lucie Mets’ game against the Charlotte Stone Crabs on July 29, Tebow was standing in the on-deck circle getting ready for his at bat when he decided to go over to the stands and great an eager young fan.The young fan, Seth Bosch, who has high-functioning autism, made his way down to the front row of the stands, reached through the protective netting and received a handshake from the former Florida quarterback. After shaking hands with Tebow, Bosch, who celebrated his 10th birthday earlier this week, turned around to face his mom, who was filming the encounter, and raised his arm triumphantly.

Xi Ping Pong is a freak

China targets mobile payments oligopoly with clearing mandate — Financial Times — “China’s central bank has ordered online payment groups to operate through a centralised clearing house, a move likely to undercut the dominance of Ant Financial and Tencent by forcing them to share valuable transaction data with competitors… The latest PBoC instructions require all payment companies to connect to the clearing house by October 15 and to channel all payments through it by June 30.”
Every time you buy something you have to write a letter to some Commie Rat. 

Socialists should do more of this

Two of the three main pieces that make up the world’s next most powerful space telescope were just integrated into one massive, shiny, strange assemblage in Redondo Beach.The custom-designed James Webb Space Telescope’s 72-foot-long sun shield was married this week to the self-propelling robotic “bus” that will carry it 1 million miles beyond Earth, according to officials from Northrop Grumman Corp.’s Space Park facility near the beach.
The betterment of humanity is served when we find our spot in the universe. 

Mueller is becoming a pain in the ass

Mueller Goes After Manafort's Family; Sought Cooperation From Son-In-Law Jeffrey Yohai

Google Snowflakes need safe places

Google canceled a companywide meeting about diversity just before it was set to begin Thursday, saying right-wing websites published the names of employees who had proposed questions, raising security concerns.
Well, I suggest Google avoid meetings for sandbox tech, we wouldn't want them to be spooked by mark to market. 

So hire the family, Diane

Feinstein rips Trump over deportation that splits Oakland family

Diane Feinstein  is richer than fuck, having made her money with hubbny doing senate inside deals.  

So hire this family you are concerned about, Diane. Feinstein is so concerned about being an affirmative action apointe with no political base, she just picks up these stupid stories and tries to pretend a policy.  She is just another preselect oligarch from the totalitarian enterprise that is the Cal Dem party.

Cops will be assassinated in return

If you are stupid enough to be a cop, here are some things you should know.  

The cops in the murder described below will lie, they will lie deliberately in court, thus getting off the charge.  As a result of the judicial corruption, some innocent cop somewhere else will be shot in the back.  
The moral is:

Ignorant ass cops manage to get themselves shot. 

SOUTHAVEN, Miss. — The death certificate for a man shot in his home by police last month confirms he died of a gunshot wound to the head from a 9 mm handgun.
The document classifies the death as a homicide, adding that it occurred by “police shooting.”
Lopez, an auto mechanic, was shot dead by a Southaven police officer while standing in the doorway of his home on Surrey Lane just before midnight July 23.
But an arrest warrant shows police were at the wrong address.
DeSoto County District Attorney John Champion confirmed two officers were responding to an aggravated domestic violence call across the street at the request of another law enforcement agency.

Bears take over

The biggest selloff in U.S. equities since May sparked an unprecedented rush for protection in the options market.About 2.6 million puts and calls tied to the CBOE Volatility Index changed hands on Thursday, the most on record, as the VIX spiked 44 percent to close at the highest level since Nov. 8. About 3.4 call volatility options - a bearish equities trade - have changed hands for every put contract.

Does the Trumpster read my blog?

In his first public comment on the recent decision by the Kremlin to seize two US compounds and kick out 755 US diplomats in retaliation for a similar move by Obama in December, Trump said "I want to thank" Russian President Vladimir Putin for ousting hundreds of US embassy employees "because we're trying to cut down our payroll."
My point exactly from  weeks ago. 

Trumpster diving in the markets

Stock indices down about 1.5% and treasury curve flattened to 1% steepness.

THAAD does not do exo

JAPANESE DEFENSE MINISTER: Japan could legally intercept a Guam-bound North Korea missile.
Onodera told a lower house of parliament committee that Japan would be allowed to hit a missile headed towards the U.S. Pacific territory if it was judged to be an existential threat to Japan, Kyodo said. This is a reiteration of the Japanese government’s position.Experts say Japan does not currently have the capability to shoot down a missile flying over its territory headed for Guam.

Then Congress should fast-track selling them the THAAD systems to give them the capability.

Steve Green from instapundit.

Most of the imbeciles at Instapundit were molested by female teachers so they have his delusion of manliness they have to project.  They should skip the sexual hysteria and do a little science.

PS Exoatmospheric,meaning the target is above the atmosphere.

And Chinese officials buy California housing

Democratic Gov. Jerry Brown of California suggested the United States should emulate the Communist Chinese government, heaping praise on a country promoted by the elite as the savior of globalism following the election of President Trump

But Jerry is waiting the largest opportunity, having Larry Paige cover the cost of 100,000 heat surgeries for middle aged Chinese residents with a second citizenship card from California. Jerry just couldn't believe his ears when the good folks at giggles agreed to pay the trillion dollar price tag.

Coinbase on a roll

Coinbase Inc., the digital currency exchange that in the past two months suffered a trading crash and upset customers over how it handled the bitcoin split, received a $100 million investment from a group led by IVP.Spark Capital, Greylock Partners, Battery Ventures, Section 32 and Draper Associates also participated, according to a statement Thursday. Coinbase plans to use the money to expand its engineering and customer support staff, open a New York office for its professional trading platform GDAX and grow Toshi, “a mobile browser for the ethereum network that provides universal access to financial services,” said Megan Hernbroth, a spokeswoman.
Coinbase mathematicians have figured out what monetary congestion is all about and how to control it legally.  Those knowledge helps them get funding.    Who explained it to the Coinbase staff? 

Wednesday, August 9, 2017

If I am Janet, I look at these numbers

Somewhere, I heard, a market analyst say we need 3 billion secure elements by 2022.

OK, let's be conservative. Let's say 250 million smart cash devices as described in these posts. We can do this today with our tiny telephones. But the hardware wallet vendors have it nailed.

Take 250 million cash cards in the hands of developed country higher income residents.  They will be auto-trading something like 10,000 fiat dollars.  A volume of a couple of trillion.  Janet has less than a year to have a response.

What trading technology? Oh, yes, the Redneck reference architecture, but google cannot participate as Rednecks are excluded at google.

The higher the premium the more that drop out

Obamacare premium increase are needed because healthy people are skipping insurance. Raising the premium price does not help unless you raise the penalty also.  But you will never get a congressional majority to raise Obamacare taxes by 20% on a yearly basis.

The life cycle of money

Daily Reckoning om bitcoin:

The world’s monetary system has collapsed three times over the past century: In 1914, 1939 and 1971.

Yes, and the process has not stopped, all that happened was in the 70s MIT put out a bogus theory that makes us feel better.  

We are moving toward a new monetary technology, we will not pay the bills during the transition.  The sandbox prevents government rigging of the debt system.

McBride thinks Magic Walrus will pay the bills

Unfortunately "debt ceiling" sounds virtuous, but it isn't - it is actually a question of "paying the bills".
McBride is our usual boy scout, but he misses a point.  

We do not have to pay the bills.  We have increasing options to use other means for currency from food stamps to overseas shell companies to an expanding black market to the use of unregulated crypto, including a gold backed crypto coin.

In fact,McBride misses the pint that we actually avoid payments once a generation during regime change, which is today.    The odds are almost 85%, based on history, that we will fail to pay the bills either during the current or during the next downturn.

The New York system is a value added chain

Matt Levine:
Stock exchanges, through a series of historical quirks, are now key regulators of corporate governance standards in the U.S

Economists, some, use the term 'market' as in 'the market process all information'.  

The purchase and selling of stocks, in aggregate, is not a market.  The New York system was born of government regulations and the thing we call the 'stock market' is a regulatory superstructure.  There is a real market for individual stocks, generally a market that prices the individual stock relative to the cost of money and factors in the company balance sheet.  There is no''stock market' except to the extant we need to see the common effect of government regulation, and that is the information processed.

Tuesday, August 8, 2017

The federales are not solvent

Some claim the debt hike is trivial, check some numbers.

Currently, since 2015, interest charges to the Secretary have risen 10% a year, about 40 billion/yr.  The economy is 16 trillion, real dollars. So, in four years new interest charges are a point of GDP.  Get a break on inflation, and it is half a point.

That rise in debt service drops potential GDP down to 1.5%, and we have been seeing that lately.   Taxes fall behind at 1.5%growth.

The secretary of interest payments will find a moment when he is nearly short of cash but cannot get to market soon enough.  That becomes a quick over the counter loan with Janet, insolvency.

Here's to you Glen

Fairly fine forking

The price of Bitcoin Cash has helped mining profitability quite a bit as the price per BCH is roughly $380 at the time of writing. BCH markets dropped to an all-time low of just under $200 per BCH, but on August 6 the price rebounded during the day. Currently, BCH markets are up over 40 percent in the last 24-hours with a market capitalization of over $6.2B.
Great job on the  fork. The techies pulled thru. 

My job market speculation

In a few posts recently I pointed out oddities in the job reports.  These oddities point to the ominous, a pension stampede of boomers. The boomers deployed all these part time minimum wage workers, then skedaddled in the noise. Boys, I think the herd's amovin. It can crash us.

Matt Levine does crypto

"There's a house full of cryptocurrency gurus in San Francisco, and it's like a modern-day commune." Oh it's like a commune is it? I wonder how they divide up the chores. "I will exchange 0.65 takeoutthetrashcoins for 1 doingthedishescoin," one resident's bot is probably saying to another's on the local cryptochore exchange. 
Home baker's coin.

Your site has local distribution and you sell bakery products online, in bakers' coin  Your site has a zero mean S&L engine, club members buy bakers' coin on any exchange, mostly the one at your site. Then you raise or lower the price of bakers' goods in bakers' coin such that bit error is zero mean.

Why? It is easy and fun if the club members know each other.  Otherwise, you sell bakers' coin to Walmart, and they put bakers' goods on the shelf with a bakers' coin discount.

Is bakers' coin really money?  It sits somewhere in the middle of coin and contract.    I will get back  to this after the marketers here at Redneck systems sort it.

Stationary door to door transfer, a free invention

Real easy with today's technology.  An  express buss pulls in, and sideways stop at each feeder buses. Very simple transfer, door to door; passengers do not need to leave the bus  Cut the bus wait time at major transfers from ten minutes to one. Big savings, easy deign for the architect.

Go build the sandbox here

"Live Free or Die" is the official motto of the U.S. state of New Hampshire, adopted by the state in 1945.[1] It is possibly the best-known of all state mottos, partly because it conveys an assertive independence historically found in American political philosophy and partly because of its contrast to the milder sentiments found in other state mottos.

Hey John, send me my check.

Pichai: Progressive totalitarianism, the Google business model

Progressive totalitarianism, like hauling empty steel cars around San Jose, year after year, spewing tons of CO2, and call it environmentalism.

Taxing little brown people to pay huge checks to Elon, environmentalism

 Ruling that fair legislation is illegal without union control, human rights

Rampant anti-while laws built in throughout state government, racial equality.

We have a legislature, just progresive for google, and they invited the entire world to live on the ground of the UCLA medical center and get free medical care, courtesy of google execs.

We have google founders making flying cars and magic balloons.

Google makes 1/4 the earnings per employee as Facebook. Worse for google, one redneck asshole can write a blog and anticipate your every move. Short the silicon valley techs, they are off their rocker and have no barrier to entry.

Nor do I use google search as the first two pages are fake, just listing of google asking for ad pennies. Wiki is much better source, follow their links, can;t go wrong and you will be smarter than your typical google exec.

And much worse, we have moved all of the new sandbox tech outside of California, you cannot build money tech in a totalitarian state.

Kocherlakota is why we build sandbox

Consider the situation in late 2010. The Republican party won a huge victory in the midterm congressional elections, at least in part thanks to voters’ unease with the $800 billion fiscal stimulus package that the Obama administration adopted the previous year. The newly elected Republicans largely opposed additional stimulus as a way of addressing the protracted recession. 
 Yet one day after the election, with unemployment still close to 10 percent and inflation falling toward 1 percent, the Federal Reserve began a new round of bond-buying designed to provide added economic stimulus (a policy that I, as a Fed official at the time, supported). This was no isolated event. Throughout the recovery, the Fed systematically sought to boost growth and inflation even as Congress made choices -- such as the budget sequestration of 2013 -- that seemed deliberately intended to constrain them.

This  central   banker always assumes a single, monopoly magic walrus fiat currency.  That has never been the case.  There  has always been gold, black market for labor and goods, and global shell companies all creating alternative currencies, none of them in  the central banker model. 

At this point, it is friggen obvious that a multi-currency sandbox is being built.  Central bankers are stuck using an incorrect model that gets worse the long they deny it. The denialism by the magic walrus crew means we no longer explain it to them, we just move on.

Someone is reading my blog

August 8, 2017 – The GoldMint project is being launched to provide gold ownership solutions for cryptocurrency investors. Physical gold is an age-old method of payment and wealth preservation, due to its brilliance and value. Owning gold, however, requires expensive security, safekeeping, and insurance, in addition to being illiquid. GoldMint’s modern solution to these inherent problems is GOLD, a 100% gold-backed token.
OK, I see the pattern and we can schedule the sandbox.

I generally have this exactly right, and the next step, in my plan, is the deployment of branded side chains and trusted net. We should be hearing announcements within a month or two.

California cities no longer function

Sacramento – Municipal governments exist to provide essential services, such as law enforcement, firefighting, parks and recreation, street repairs and programs for the poor and homeless. But as pension, health-care and other compensation costs soar for workers and retirees alike, local governments are struggling to fulfill these basic functions. 

There’s even a term to describe that situation. “Service insolvency” is when localities have enough money to pay their bills, but not enough left over to provide adequatepublic service. These governments are not insolvent per se, but there’s little they can afford beyond paying the salaries and benefits of their workers. 

As a city manager quoted in a newspaper article once quipped, California cities have become pension providers that offer a few public services on the side. It’s a sad state of affairs when local governments exist to do little more than pay the people who work for them.

Another oddity in jobs

After nearly two years of being rangebound, between 5.5 and 6 million, the BLS's JOLTS report - Janet Yellen's favorite labor market indicator- showed that in June, the number of job openings soared by 461,000 from 5.7 million to a new all time high of 6.163 million, smashing expectations of a far more subdued print of 5.75K, and resulting in a job openings rate of 4.0%, also tied for record high.
This post tells me that 500,000 boomers retired and we are going to see yet another jump in interest charges.  This is  not a good report. 

Once we vote for the crap we have to pay for the crap

 The Labor Department reports 7.6 million workers held multiple jobs last month, up 2% from 7.4 million in July 2016.  That’s back to highs not seen in 20 years. And it should not be mistaken as a sign of healthy entrepreneurship. "The principal reason workers hold more than one position is that no single job provides a sufficient income," adds Sri-Kumar. "In a robust economic recovery, the number of full-time workers should be rising, and the number of workers employed part-time or holding multiple jobs, should decline."
So the nurses union has some splaining to do. 

I knew something was backwards in the jobs report,.  As these authors note, it is not a good jobs report when we lose full time jobs and take multiple part time job. Most of the economists do not understand disaggregation of the data to have a closer look. They do the magic walrus read off of a talking point, never look at the data.

Monday, August 7, 2017

Commie Rat liars

China Threatens "Small Scale Military Operation" To Remove India From Bhutan Border

Only the politically correct need speak

Google Fires Author Of "Outrageous" Memo Slamming Company's Anti-Conservative Culture

Can Russia create a provably honest clearing system?

Russia To Cut Dependence On U.S. Dollar, Payment Systems

Russia get locked out of the American clearing houses.  They have to have an equivalent.

But who trusts Vladimir? No one, in this case.  They have to adopt gold backing or create a provably correct hardware secure system or go block chain.  In the central bank clearing system, central banks hold responsibility, which government must guarantee.  No one will trust the guarantee of the Kremlin.

Creating hardware based security

There are fewer chip makers than bankers, hence easier to form a trusted group of hardware vendors who deploy a public protocol.  If the hardware protocol can verify the block of code to be executed, at start up, and the chip is difficult to counterfeit, then we have a hardware solution. The larger number of big banks can verify the production of the protocol chip, including test and verification.  Final stage of assembly includes programming keys into the secure chip, done with a banker approved piece of software under watchful eye.

The federal pickle

The ten year rate at 2.3% is just below the rate at which the budget is unsupportable, 2.5 and above.

That rate rise becomes a 60 billion jolt to the budget, the largest budget shock by ratio and in the fourth largest budget itim.  Congress cannot take the rate without the Fed doing a QE.  But the QE is a loss to the bond industry so we get, again, the medium term jump in the ten year as the Fed attempts to quantize it higher. Housing will dip appreciably.

The next can kick is a 82 yard field goal, and Congress has a broken leg. A 1.5%  GDP growth rate is becoming typical when even the optimists were settling for 1.9%. Many analysts have the bond market at breaking point, expect to see it all happen at once, a jump in rates, the sudden QE, and from there they differ.  Some think slow growth at 1.5, some think crash.  .I cannot predict as any of my predictions become impossible to bet with my 100% failure rate.

No rednecks allowed

Silicon Valley "Outraged" After Google Employee Pens Viral Doc Slamming "Anti-Conservative" Culture

The cost of Swamp debt

An increase in Treasury interest rates of just 0.2 percent a year would cost the government about $400 billion over the next 10 years. It also would lead to higher borrowing costs for American businesses, because borrowing rates are set by reference to Treasury rates. Moreover, each month holders of tens of billions of dollars in valid claims against the United States would go unpaid, triggering a major recession.
And this post favored more debt.  The .2% rise is a rise of the ten year to 2.48.  The 400 billion comes to 40 billion a year,the cost of Obamacare subsidies.

Sunday, August 6, 2017

It will take a week to stop laughing

California governor: ‘Intelligence’ should be litmus test for Dems

California legalizes pooping

All single-user toilet facilities in any business establishment, place of public accommodation, or state or local government agency shall be identified as all-gender toilet facilities by signage that complies with Title 24 of the California Code of Regulations, and designated for use by no more than one occupant at a time or for family or assisted use.
Like in my house, I have a central bathroom.  The law states that my bathroom is for pooping and it don't matter how many gener changes you have undergone, you can still poop.

Interest expenses are not ok. Kevin Drum

Kevin Drum thinks we  can easily  take on another 100 billion in interest  expense.

Not close.  We would need to drop the ten year by another half point to support another big interest charge increase.   There is no money, and Kevin forgets we could not do this last time without QE support.  

Does Kevin see that volatility toward the end of the series?    Congress has no way to even predict the budget without a guarantee of QE.

The Swamp does not amortize debt and growth slows

The red line decreases because interest charges become more burdensome. So, we can see that another huge bunch of Swamp debt will cause regime change.


And economists William Even from Miami University and David Macpherson from Trinity University report that when a state, or the federal government, increases the minimum wage, Black teens are more likely to be laid off. The duo analyzed 600,000 data points, which the Employment Policies Institute says included “a robust sample of minority young adults unprecedented in previous studies on the minimum wage.”