Wednesday, September 20, 2017

Puerto Rico could be epic

Eye straight into the place.

Enough disaster to send me to sunday-meeting.

The Trump Bump and the 12% swing in the dollar

The downward swing in the dollar was rapid, and 12%.  Import and import prices jumped, about 20% of the economy.  So we are adding a half to full point to inflation, very  soon and very unsustainable.

The ten year rate will want to rise, and the senators, worst case, are looking at eight hundred billion dollar interest charge, up from five hundred a few years ago.  Interest charges are discovered, in real time.  If they are in the trillion dollar range, the senators will be endlessly haggling over their programs, shut down is impossible to avoid.

Interest charges are priced, in real time. 

You have to read the bill to find out what's in it , so to speak.

We do not know the cost of Obamacare completely, we are discovering it.  Nor we do know if the boomers will stampede.  It is uncertain that the millennials actually agreed to pay over 3.5% of income to federal interest charges.  Defense budgets are whacko all around.

The volatility of interest is quite obvious, 100 billion dollar swings over a year or two.  The senators cannot measure the relative risk among the hundred odd discretionary programs they rely on.  Their word is as good as their willingness to continually haggle and prioritize.

Interest as a fraction of RGDP

See those two peaks at .035?   

This economy cannot do that level anymore, that is why we are volatile  on the right, we hit a bound, a hard bound.

The interest charges have bankrupted a bunch of government  programs.  But the structure of government is very contingent on these programs, they keep the small and mid sized states going.  Hence the senators, seemingly undecided but in actuality they are in DC hovering over these programs to the exclusion of any other business.

Those two peaks at .035  caused the upper bound, they caused a quantization effect.  So, to the right on the graph we do not even test .03.    You don;t need economics to see the issue here, if this is a natural process  then we can infer a regime change, a requantiztion, in the process because the two parts of the graph clearly anti-correlated. So, without involving the economists at all, we might expect a new, larger jump in volatility if we requantizated above the ,035.  It is all about a process somewhere packing sphere and it generates this kind of regime change.

Entitlement slave shortage

Finland’s Welfare State Has a Massive Baby Problem

Public sector unions pummell middle class

Before the welcoming committee even arrived at their front door, the Schurtz family’s first property-tax bill arrived in the mail. “We laughed,” Michelle said. “That’s all we could do.”The Schurtzes paid their first full year of property taxes in 2015. The bill totaled $11,000.When it comes to property taxes, sticker shock is typical in Illinois. From small-business owners in Chicago to suburban dwellers in middle-of-the-pack school districts, long-time Illinoisans are often bewildered as to why they pay the second-highest property taxes in the nation, at an average of more than 2 percent of a home’s value.And the nonpartisan Tax Foundation said Chicago’s record-setting property-tax hike will likely vault Illinois to the top of the table, making the Land of Lincoln home to the highest property taxes in the U.S.

Who got defrauded?

Rodriguez announced in November 2014 that he was running for a board seat and raised more than $50,000 during his first campaign reporting period that ended Dec. 31, 2014, according to the District Attorney’s Office. Prosecutors allege that nearly half those contributions were fraudulent because Rodriguez and Melendrez reimbursed those who gave them.In total, 25 donors, most of them family and friends, were allegedly paid back $24,250. The donors’ names were listed on a campaign finance report that was allegedly signed by Rodriguez under the penalty of perjury and submitted to the commission, prosecutors said.
He won the election needing only half the money, so he returned it.  Where is the crime? If he defrauded the voters then why did they elect him?   Did he defraud the state? Maybe, but the state eventually learned the money was returned.  I see this merely as a paper work error, maybe a misdemeanor.

Tuesday, September 19, 2017

My labor market theory and recesions

I extend the idea of tradebook uncertainty to labor markets and note the large tradebook uncertainty for labor  markets.

Hence, any shock that distorts the labor market means hiring managers must way for the market to clear a bit before hiring, generally that means for all the mass layoffs to stop.

Why mass layoffs?

Generally because companies and institution make employment bets when the labor market is calm.  But the intermediaries are gone, most of the staff hired up and the third party staffers gone elsewhere.  

In California we see this effect.  If something shakes he economy a bit, then public sector slows a bit, except the entire sector moves with Sacramento. But, a few lay offs of teachers will go into a teachers employment market that is not geared up, head hunters are not on the job working this market. The short term bulging makes the labor market uncertain and hiring managers lengthen their employment searches, slow things down.  Teachers should be able to move between public schools and industry faster with less matching effort.

More earthquakes, more hurricanes

We have to retally the black swan costs.  

Unexpectedly, nature may have tipped us into recession. I was thinking it more likely we skated by.  All the cycles remained aligned, long term generation cycle, government cycle, trump hump; and now the first and second of the black swans.  If we do a dip in Q3 below 1% growth, then things get very unmeasurable for three quarters because winter is late in recording and Q1 is government slow down quarter anyway.

With no real government in Baghdad

 Iraqi Kurds are set to vote next week on independence from Iraq in what many say is a popular expression of their desire for self-determination after suffering for a century under war and dictatorship.
Government in Baghdad is about factions splitting the oil pot. mostly idiot Shia religious psychos.  Kurds got better things to do. 

Deplorable cave dwellers

“They’re both kind of very similar,” Jerry Brown said at a climate change event in New York. “You should check out the derivation of ‘Trump-ite’ and ‘troglodyte,’ because they both refer to people who dwell in deep, dark caves.”
Some 140 year old ex-Jesuit priest. 

He is no intellectual but he does know how to manage Cal Dems. Wait until Gavin gets the governorship, we will soon be broke and dating teenagers.

Monday, September 18, 2017

The modern version of Yippie

The Insane Clown Posse or Juggalos   Every rebellious generation hashem.  These are the kids who just wanna have fun and sort out the politics later. The anarchist wing of the libertarian left.
In 2011, the FBI classified the Juggalos as a gang, right along with more infamous gangs like the Bloods and Crips and MS-13. That classification has had a real impact on the lives of ICP fans, as they’ve reportedly lost custody battles, had their attempts to enlist in the military rebuffed and even been fired from their jobs by virtue of their association with an official, FBI-recognized gang.

In a year of white working-class grievances, the Juggalos make for an especially curious test case, too. Hailing largely from the Midwest and South, Juggalos have a significant amount of demographic overlap with the less-educated whites who have been scrutinized as a distinct and powerful voting bloc in the wake of Donald Trump’s election. But most of their political statements up until now have been found in ICP’s song lyrics, like the band’s anti-Confederacy anthem “Fuck Your Rebel Flag” and the movement's insistence that everyone, regardless of race, sexuality or age, can be a Juggalo. “We made the name ‘Juggalo’ to represent all of us: men, women, black, white, brown, yellow, fat as fuck, skinny as a broomstick, gay, straight, bi, trans, young, old and folded and loopy, rich, poor,” Kevin Gill, a Juggalo and speaker at the rally, yelled into the mic, as cries of “Whoop whoop” and several expletive-laden choruses rippled through the crowd. They may have made up a motley and underwhelming crowd on Saturday, but their mobilization represents a particularly bizarre iteration of what so many pundits lament is sorely missing on the left: a nexus between white working-class demographics and a stated, passionate commitment to inclusion, diversity and civil liberties.

Secure element and efficient transport

Report: Traffic on major freeways has grown 80 percent since 2010

Another of my companies.  

Tap your smart card on the commute icon, give permission for auto tracking.  Hence forth you travel smoothly on reserved  lanes. My company name  is Redneck Drivers.

Anytime you hear the name 'Redneck', you will hear high quality, security, trust, angelic warmth and happy puppies.

It is non stationary

Machine learning at central banks

If the machine learning mimics the economy then it tries to come to a conclusion, find the tipping points.  That makes it non stationary.

Machine learning is just that, trying to  come to a conclusion.  The sandbox is like that,  finite boundary problem orbiting solutions that are error bound though not  quite complete.  At any given time we have a set of prices that covers variations in real yields, the typicals.  As long as quants hold, the market is parsing out the typical set, then precision i not supported and we reprice, set the pricing error change in the other direction.

Swedes unfit to survive

Sweden's overall fertility rate in 2007 was 1.88 children per woman, below the rate of 2.1 children per woman required to replace the population. Since 1980, the percentage of births registered in Sweden to mothers born outside the country has nearly doubled from 12 percent to 22 percent.Nov 3, 2008

On closer study,  researchers found confused researchers citing bogus claims on evolution:

Suppose you plug in the most commonly-used estimates of IQ by country, assign each of Vinnerjung's "small groups" equal shares of the remainder, and assume international adoptees are average for their home country.  Then if they'd stayed in their birth countries, the non-Western adoptees would have a mean IQ of only 84.   

The horrors of birth on pretty swedish women so frightened the country, they went into a national search for scientifically raised foreigners.  In fact they solved the problem, bring in foreigners who spend more time having kids and less time importing them. It is called evolution, and it ha a genetic basis.

A rush to block chain

The Chinese regulators are having the opposite effect.  

By shutting down access to bitcoin domestically, they drive up the demand  for foreign exchanges more dramatically.   Chinese evaders are rushing to get their bitcoin ledger entered, protecting their loot like gold.  Bitcoin prices responding up with each new central bank threat.

The price volatility they cause is surplus to existing bitcoin holders.  The communists are better off legalizing the currency but requiring they clear via the government blockchain portal, for a fee on yuan.  Then the authorities give citizens' the gain from public ledger but collect the monetary insurance fee for the yuan.

Consider the volatility

What the authorities do now is causing a 10% volatility in bitcoin exchanges, likely much worse.  We get huge jams.  The authorities could charge a variable fee, around 5%, in a monopoly setting, to exchange yuan for blockchain, anonymously.  Volatility in coinage is free money, easily smoothed.  

A five percent typical fee would last a long time and generate the appropriate communist exit fee.  Add a term fee for rare, large transfers. Well, in fact, sell bitcoin exits on an automated, Redneck compatible trading pit.  Call my VP, or ask your favorite banker. I can set the Communists up with a very stable yuan system hedged properly by international bitcoin. 

My fee is 200 bitcoins.

Don't Do Anything Rash

Legislators from south central Kentucky addressed a packed room last night of public workers and retirees in Bowling Green concerned about how pension reforms will change their benefits. Among them was Terry Eidson who retired from state government in 2006.
"Employees and retirees are feeling a little devalued and demeaned in all this, and it just doesn't sit well," Eidson told WKU Public Radio.
Kentucky has a pension deficit of at least $30 billion, threatening the state’s ability to pay retirement benefits for current and future retirees. In order to return the pension plans to solvency, consultants have recommended an end to defined-benefit pensions for public employees in favor of less generous defined-contribution accounts and a raise in the retirement age to 65 for most workers.

My new business

The ultimate in employer/employee matching.  The worker taps the icon and establishes a publicly observable labor profile, correct, anonymous, automated and honestly derived by the app from personal information in the smart card.  The worker may restrict the profile with options, and can indicate on or off the market. But as a continuing member, his work profile is available anonymously, and equally.

My new company, Redneck Ready, makes its money with ads, the service is free.  I couple it with the Google search engine.  The service comes with standard, regulated smart contracts, an employment deal is complete upon the closing interview.  The service so efficient that employees can be moved on and off the payroll in two months time, and still be profitable.

Send me a check, and an executive team for my company.

The budget control act

The BCA was passed in 2011 as part of the tax n spend deal with Obama.  I defined that the budget is sequestered at the previous year's level if no budget deal is reached.  It sets sequester caps.  So he Republican Congress has to break the deal, with Democrat votes, otherwise the law specifies cuts. 
No such agreement is yet in place for fiscal 2018, meaning the BCA limitations are scheduled to kick back in. The White House has encouraged lawmakers to pass such an agreement for the upcoming fiscal year, but only so it can increase defense spending. In his budget, Trump proposed increasing defense spending by $54 billion and cutting non-defense spending by the same amount.The administration has endorsed an omnibus appropriations bill recently passed by the House, which the Office of Management and Budget conceded would cause a $72 billion sequestration on the defense side. OMB urged lawmakers to make “the necessary changes to the discretionary caps” so that would not occur. It did not respond to questions about whether it would also support raising non-defense caps to avoid a sequester of those accounts as well. Democrats are reluctant to make any adjustments that don't treat civilian and defense spending equally. 

The heart of Republican economic policy is deficit spending until bankruptcy.  Now they actually have to vote for that. 

Why not use dollars?

The DIGI Token
Holders of the DIGI Token, an ERC20 token built on the Ethereum blockchain, will use these tokens within trading and exchange platforms. They will also be able to use the tokens to purchase digital goods or services from the DIGI marketplace.
Transfer dollars from the bank to an unsecured account with dollar equivalent purchasing parity.  Then use the ethereum block chain, it should support dollars. 

The promoters need to consider tradebook uncertainty for this specialized market, it is huge with much hidden information.  DIGI Token is useless, authors pay taxes and buy cars.


Study Shows Student Debt Delays Home Buying by Seven Years

Seven years set aside per generation.  

Seven years, close to the Kanosian Recession cycle.  Each new regime trying some bogus new program and asking the current generation to hold on, just for a few year.  What happens? A hugely uncertain, unstable labor market, large uncertainty and the appearance of a limit cycle as we await a huge labor market restructuring every regime change.

Tradebook uncertainty in labor market

It is large.

When budgets are tight and a layoff is pending the hiring manager is releasing the employee onto an uncertain labor queue, long.  The hiring manager makes up for lost reserve labor with double duty for the remaining employees.

With a high labor market uncertainty, the hiring manager cannot count on making up reserves with rapid hiring and firing.    He will raise productivity internally until the labor market is visibly changed.  That is a large quantization error, he is waiting for the labor market intermediaries to get the hiring queues organized.

The key to improving labor market efficiency is to lower the hire and fire costs and get more efficient third party intermediaries, keep the labor queues stable.  But we have technology that can help, in the form of secure element.  Secure personal history couple with powerful labor market apps we can see more informative kills history and availability; as well a spending and living history. This personal inform can be volunteered on an anonymous basis to labor market 'pit bosses', unbiased matching algorithms, utilized from user selected labor agents that represent everyone fairly and anonymously. The employer knows more about what kind of workers have been released, including the ones he releases; an accurate but anonymous tradebook.

Large swings in unemployment show become smaller swings with a stoppings point in the middle. Hiring managers able to go 'short and long' on their various labor needs.

Send me a check.

Commie Rats have a party congress in Oct

A big deal,have them every five.

The issue is debt out of control, and a bit lower growth in the economy. Then they got the Trumpster demanding they fix the Dim Kim problem.  And Xi wants to get dictatorial power. Now Trumpster wants a trade war.

Now count me perplexed, but the Commie Rats would be advised to avoid large consensus building meeting at a time when all the issues are bubbling up.

First order of foreign policy

Trump begins first UN remarks by mentioning his nearby building

Have a great party room.

Liberals preparing the racist agenda

Liberals abandon logic to weaponize 'white supremacy'

And create instant demand for secure element

Kevin Drum solves the credit hacking crisis. 
Why not a bill that requires identity confirmation in all cases and makes credit reporting agencies responsible for identity theft? It’s simple, easy, and effective. 
His solution works because it make holding a  digital identity a liability.  

The credit checkers will not hold your history, they will make you hold it.  And you will volunteer an honest, encrypted summary of your privately held information as a condition of spending. 

They do this because you will have the secure, intelligent cash card.  Your card and the credit company server will conform to a contract, signed with your thumbprint. All of yout bots will be credit cleared for your particular rsk setting.  

We can e mail the codes

"Most Draconian Measures Ever": China Expands Bitcoin Crackdown Beyond Exchange Trading

Bitcoin is bearer cash to trusted parties.  

It can be e mailed to a server in New Hampshire,home of the cryptos. From there the bot can handle your trade just fine.

Sunday, September 17, 2017

The mental safety of the undergrads is at stake

Over 200 University of California, Berkeley professors and faculty are calling for the shutdown of classes and activities during "free speech week," an event scheduled Sept. 24 to 27 that features some "alt-right" speakers. 
 The faculty believes the university should not ask students and staff to choose between "risking their physical and mental safety," and coming to campus for class or work.

At Redneck U we never considered the undergrads to be all that mentally secure anyway.   

Here is the universal undergrad protest, naked day.  Just bare it all for the day.

College kids protesting mental insecurity

Not that big a deal

The world’s central banks can’t sit back and ignore the growth in cryptocurrencies as it could pose a risk to the stability of the financial system, according to the Bank for International Settlements. It said central banks will need to figure out whether to issue a digital currency and what its attributes should be, though the decision is most pressing in countries like Sweden where cash use is dwindling. Institutions need to take into account of not only privacy issues and efficiency gains in payment systems, but also economic, financial and monetary policy repercussions, the BIS said in its Quarterly Review. 

Security,honest accounting, counterfeiting are mostly solved problems.

What is left is for central bankers to understand it is an auto traded world, no  time for insurance payments. markets clear when they need to.  At the core, the central bankers are still dealing with open markets, but via bots.  There is no reason that central banker decisions cannot be implemented via bot.   It all works out, don't worry, be happy.

Trump hump is gone

Our guy gets elected and the dollar loses 12%.   Foreign investors who exchange back to domestic currency made no money in the American market in 2017.

Lead poisoning

4 dead, 12 wounded in shootings Saturday into Sunday in Chicago


Sen. McCain: Military Cuts Kill More US Troops Than Engagement

The old canard.

With more funds McCain's dopey military inventions would fail less often. The answer is to purchase less dopey.

India to upgrade currency technology

While working on creating a legal framework for bitcoin and other digital currencies, the Indian government is now considering launching its own bitcoin-like cryptocurrency. The proposed government cryptocurrency is to be issued by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI).
Let us not freak.

This is the crypto version of the fiat standard, and good for them they recognize sandbox.  This part is a simple technology change, think of the next upgrade in credit card technology. 

Only her hairdresser knows for sure

She will get scaredy pooh with the hurricanes.

Jason shouted the wrong statement when chasing the victim

University City had been the scene of a tense but calm march earlier in the evening to protest a judge’s ruling Friday clearing ex-officer Jason Stockley of first-degree murder in the 2011 shooting of 24-year-old Anthony Lamar Smith. That march ended with organizers calling for people to leave and reconvene Sunday afternoon.

Cops need to read my blog and learn a thing or two.

Jason shouted, "I am gonna kill that guy", during the chase, then shot the guy to death.  Jason shouted the wrong thing.

Jason should have shouted,"Watch me fuck up and gt a cop assissinated somewhere in revenge".  Thus shouting correctly, cops would not be getting so many other cops murdered.

But it is China spread the technology

“China is not to blame for the escalation of tensions,” said the spokesperson. “China does not hold the key to resolving the Korean peninsula nuclear issue, either. Those who tied the knots are responsible for untying [them].”
Mao opened the box with Pakistan and it went from there to the Dim Kims.  

So how about Xi Ping Pong do less covering up of Mao stupidity and more reparing the blunders.

Saturday, September 16, 2017

Stock markets respond to mass effects

Mass Psychology Supports the Pricey Stock Market

Schiller has some kind of herd theory of the stock market.

There is no 'market' for stocks, why would there be? If  I were investing in dairy corporations, I would hang around cow herds.

The market that Schiller talks of, only exists to the extent that common economic constraints ae measured in an aggregate index.  We have a name for aggregate statistics in economic, a mass of people making decisions with their psychology.  The market delivers the losses and gains of aggregation and is driven mostly by government interactions. It is an inaccurate value chain and a confused economist might think it composed of stampeding herds.

Stone age man drowns fire with pee pee

Yes, you read the headline correctly. In the latest example of identity politics taken to its absurd end, three Australian college professors believe that "Playful urination practices – from seeing how high you can pee to games such as Peeball (where men compete using their urine to destroy a ball placed in a urinal) – may give boys an advantage over girls when it comes to physics."
Back in the day we had the brains of a dog standing up.  I would not discount the learning possibilities with a personal hose. 

A key variable in the economy

Federal interest charges relative to  real GDP.    

Our willingness to pay more than 3% of GDP in interest charges is rare and popular with investors, dragging down the equity market.  An unexpected drop of real GDP by a half point from hurricanes raises the interest to GDP, and investors will jump on that leaving the market weak.

Bailing out the student lenders

CFPB Deal Could Mean Relief From Wall Street's Worst Student Loans

Forty two percent in default and they collec 13 cents on the dollar.  Someone will be eating nearly a half trillion in losses, the next biggest liability after state pensions.  Add another 10 billion to the interest charges millennials agreed to pay, last week.

Bear market indicator

The blue bars in this graph are declining markets for the stock index. Goldman-Sachs made the chart, indicating to its clients that steady gains are no long part of the strategy.  How did they know?

As the index PE approaches the one year rate, under low volatility, then risky stocks get priced higher. Not all of them can respond to rising rates equally.    Hence the index measure become volatile and stocks revert to intrinsic value, generally chaotically down.

The market distribution of PE changes as the average rises. Suddenly for a small riser in yhe average there any many that miss the mark.

Rednecks unite to save the American Boob

A 2013 survey from lingerie retailer Intimacy revealed the average bra size in America is 34DD — a leap from the average 34B it was 20 years earlier. There are several reasons as to why, including inflated cup sizes, plastic surgery, and the rising obesity rate. After all, breasts are largely made up of fatty tissue, meaning the more fat a person has, the bigger the breasts. 

 The debate goes on:

War of words over 'boobs' continues between CNN and Fox Sports hosts

I propose national boob day, a celebration of the human mammal.

Why do high school male take more STEM?

High School Choices and the Gender Gap in STEM

The study implies that males are not that STEM friendly, but getting STEMMED helps get into college, it is an entry requirement.  Males gotta get into university, so they STEM.

Federal courts will be jammed forever

Attorney General cannot withhold federal grants to single payer sanctuary cities, judge rules

US District Court Judge Harry D. Leinenweber agreed with the city of Chicago that the administration's new requirements for receiving a key medical insurance law enforcement grant that hinged on immigration medical services enforcement could cause "irreparable harm," adding that the city had shown a "likelihood of success" in its case that Attorney General Jeff Sessions exceeded his authority in requiring local jurisdictions to comply with the new standards.

Federal discretionary spending to the states, enabled by Congressional law, is now subject to due process, and no one noticed.

Progressives are in glee, but they know nothing more than 'make shit up'.  Serious Dems are saying, Whoa, we need the rule of law to protect what we plan to do, their left wing is tearing it down going all Sotomayor. 

Jerry Brown calls for intelligence in he Cal legislature, and this is what he means.

Republicans demand right to go on spending binge

The Senate on Thursday failed to come to an agreement to vote on an amendment to roll back sequestration, despite pleas from Republicans to undo the spending caps that inhibit defense and non-defense spending.
The Republican Communist Party in action. 

The California gambling stonehead market

Sativa, pot smoking guide for Las Vegas.

Work a web deal to distribute Sativa discounts, along with ads for the best hot spots.  Go world wide, include special guided trips, become the Sativa travel agent forever.

The concept of sandbox

Equifax hired a music major as chief security officer and she has just retired

Is that your ID security is as secure as the deice in your hand, the smart cash device.  
The card is secure and intelligent, hence utilizes known encryption protocols that still verify compliance while protecting identity.  The card can run routine fraud checks.  No humans involved.

Microsoft Coco offer a solution for today, a consortium of credit checking companies that agree to use the Coco secure element. Peronal ID can be made secure from all humans, protected to the core with the Intel processor involved.

Send me a check.

Labor matching has high transaction costs

Back to the issue.  If we define something called tradebook uncertainty for labor, what is it?

The hiring manager is likely working with five pay grades.  His queue of applicants is organized as a rank three distribution, at best; very fuzzy.  The reason is the flexibility of humans, much of what they do is better done than described; they adapt to the work place.    A lot of the trade book, the stack of current resumes and contacts, contains unpriced skills and deficits.

The low precision book will beget a limit system, two  sharp tops and bottoms for unemployment because the rank adjustment is always large relative to rank.  There is not enough granularity in pricing marketed items.

Is this effect more fundamental then the stock market effects?  I think hiring slowdowns precede market corrections, cause and effect is difficult.  But the change in rank causes dramatic jumps in the search window size, hiring managers become very careful about getting the right person, more precisely.    Inside the corporation things seems sluggish, workflow slows from expectations; bottlenecked by the hiring process.

White, now a generic

Um, What? Chelsea Handler Calls Ben Carson A 'Black White Supremacist'

Black, yellow, red and purple; you can all suffer the White disease. Like being Viet Named, or going the full Illinois,  Whiteness, it means ,... I dunno.

Friday, September 15, 2017

The rogue nuclear states are along the Chinese-Russian border

The two countries spreading the technology.

We are mammals

"I'm a first amendment absolutist and believe in only two things completely - the First Amendment and boobs..."

And the right to invent psychotic tales about them.


Town Leaders Seek to Make 'Selectwoman' Official Title -- For ALL Genders...

I have a flair for marketing.

It has an ending

Flattening treasury curve goes with rising stock market.  But the curve  cannot not invert for too long.

If we let the ten year rise woe be to our interest charges.

Caught between second and third, pickled.

Lizard mode and sleeping

The Thermoregulation Process. Thermoregulation is the process of regulating body temperature, which is a major part of homeostasis. Snakes and other ectotherms are cold-blooded animals that lack the ability to generate body heat internally.

Sleeping is likely a regression to the more primitive form of homeostasis.  Mammals find a warm spot and rest their internal homeostasis engine, go lizard.   Sleepy is the normal lizard state.

Dreams are lizard thoughts.

Taking the hit on hurricanes

The three top forecasting tools show something like a half point hit on growth.  Not recession territory.  If we drink enough rum we can make it to Q1 2018 without noticing any blue bar.  Oct numbers will be key.

The value of money

The accuracy by which it prices, does it have a stable granular denomination algebra?

By this standard bitcoin is over priced, it is a lousy pricer.  But ive me a Microsoft Coco and I can make clearing houses for custodial coins.  Then I connect to the existing pass code credit/debit system.  The consortium of separate but equal banks has an order of magnitude more pricing quants b because interbank clearing of branded bitcoin  is an order of magnitude more efficient than block chain.  The smaller consortium of branded cins will close the loops and blockchain becomes uninformed an is used only a high powered cash, a ledger.

Blockchain still only prices central bank hedges, the sandbox concept hedges central banks via S&L technology.  I have no numbers, sorry.  But here is a computable range for bitcoin value if you get it stimulus response function, then compare that to other economic channels.

Microsoft does it better

AMAZON now hosts Defense Department's most sensitive data...

With Microsoft Coco sensitive data can be shared over multiple hosts and have secure, user defined access protocols.  For example, I can replace the entire Treasury debt cartel with an implementation in Coco, as Coco naturally provides distributed and honest accounting. .  It uses the Intel hardware protection standard, and Intel is a great partner.  From here Microsft is a step away from completing the smart cash card.

Send me my check.

An efficient commodity responding to regulatory changes

Bitcoin, do the theory on these price swings and get a positive  utility.  Bitcoin may be overpriced, but it is no more a bubble than the dollar.

Thursday, September 14, 2017

Scenario this

Oregon’s Public Employees Retirement System has at least $24.5 billion in unfunded liability.
Which comes to 15% of GDP.  What is the likelihood that a third of the employees might opt for early retirement.  What is the average age?
The median age in 2010 was 38.4 (13.9% of pop. was 65 years old or older).
OK, so maybe 20% of the employees might have a five year flexibility on selecting retirement.   It is possible that some 20% of that 15% could become due over a two year period.  This happens as regulations and taxes change because the governor in Oregon is looking to tax just about everything.

The most likely outcome is a short two year period with GDP dropping  by 1.5% per year, putting Oregon at zero growth.  This can happen if everyone freaks about the taxes and legislation turns into a mess or the governor goes full secret and surprises us.  Some small glitch will certainly cause a pension stampede.

Secretary of interest payments is a Koch socialist

Treasury secretary requested government jet for European honeymoon

A Koch socialist believes that a free market includes monopoly government money in which TBTF is insured by government.  In the Koch view, government must license superior capitalists such that they get special premiums.  The .Koch socialist is completely unaware that they are dufas, and the secretary is exactly that type. Jamie Dimon is another.  The CEO of GS knows he plays a rigged game, they have to otherwise Congress would  be rapidly broke, making the CEO of GS an honest welfare bum, at least.

And lose the union political money from California

Hillary: Abolish Electoral College

The electoral college allows California to be the consolidated union state.  Without California, the Dems are broke.

Race gerrymander in Texas is mathematiclly impossible

Look, boneheads.  Whites, latinos and blacks are  all minorities/.  Whites are 45%, hispanic 38% and Blacks 12%.  So, we need a two color mapping that favors whites.  Look at the matching algorithm we find an overall surplus of Democrats, if Hispanic are voting Dem.  Or we find an overall surplus of non-white.    The ratios do not work for a two color matching, there will always be surplus non-whites picking up extra votes.  No solution.

I can formulize the proof and testify  as  an expert.  But I suspect we have a bunch of 'make shit up' federal judges down there.

Being poor in California is not the same as poor in Minnesota

One in five Californians lives in poverty, the highest rate in the country, according to new data from the U.S. Census Bureau.

And my hometown is the meth capital of America

In southwest Ohio, people die from drug overdoses at more than double the national rate. In the future, whether someone survives could hinge on what county they’re in.The sheriff in Butler County this summer declared that his officers wouldn’t carry medication to reverse overdoses. In Middletown, a city of 49,000 that overlaps the county, a council member frustrated by ballooning costs went even further, suggesting ambulance crews shouldn’t have to save the lives of some people who have been revived before.
About a a tenth of us Fresnans are brain dead zombies. 

Wednesday, September 13, 2017

Quite the Gerrymander

As of the 2010 US Census, the racial distribution in Texas was as follows: 70.4% of the population of Texas was White American; 11.8% African American; 3.8%, Asian American; 0.7%, American Indian; 0.1%, native Hawaiian or Pacific islander only; 10.5% of the population were of some other race only; and 2.7% were of two or more races. Hispanics (of any race) were 37.6% of the population of the state, while Non-Hispanic Whites composed 45.3%.

So for all the dimwits who think Texas could gerrymander 45% against 38%, please tell me how its done.  It is especially difficult when the 12% Black population is on;y allowed  to vote Dem.

Yet another dimwit from Slate freaks out at numeracy

Never read Slate, it is a waste, a site full of Magic Walrus Delusionals, they need therapy.

150 millions citizens have employee insurance

Bernie Sanders’ health care plan is headed in the wrong direction

And Dems lost 3 of the 3 recent election because of Pelosi and Bernie.  The Dem litmus test will kill the party.

Shrinks are treating Magic Walrus Delusion

Free pup tents for your home on the streets of LA

CA sanctuary state plans continue over objection of sheriffs

And plenty of jobs for heart surgeons, plus dual voting for a hundred million chinese.

They got the idea of a republic

Where Did The Founders Get The Idea Of Democracy?

JPM is still not explaining crypto in the correct terms

JPMorgan Goes In On Bitcoin: Kolanovic Asks "Are Cryptocurrencies A Pyramid Scheme?"

Their clients are asking about bitcoin, etherum and bitcoin cash.  JPM has to distinguish between crypt technology and monetary standards.   

Crypto is not all block chain we have a crypto coin based on the gold standard, we have dollars being shipped around in crypto format and we have a full crypto coin tethered to the dollar.  All crypto, none of them bitcoin derivatives.

I cannot day what the ultimate value of bitcoin will be, but I can tell you that most, not all, but most purchases will be using the crypto format in a few years,  Crypto is just too efficient and secure to ignore as a transaction technology.

California's founding father, beheaded

Junipero Serra statue beheaded, splashed with red paint in Central California

Not sure who dunnit, Alt-R or Alt-L, but they suspect the Alt-L.  

Junipero is the father of the 'make shit up' judiciary we have, which would be a favorite of the Alt-L.  We may simply be suffering a case of anti-statue hysteria.

Getting the goods on the Dems

A secret server is behind the Capitol Police’s decision to ban a former IT aide to Democratic Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz from the House network.Now-indicted former congressional IT aide Imran Awan allegedly routed data from numerous House Democrats to a secret server. Police grew suspicious and requested a copy of the server early this year, but they were provided with an elaborate falsified image designed to hide the massive violations. The falsified image is what ultimately triggered their ban from the House network Feb. 2, according to a senior House official with direct knowledge of the investigation.The secret server was connected to the House Democratic Caucus, an organization chaired by then-Rep. Xavier Becerra. Police informed Becerra that the server was the subject of an investigation and requested a copy of it. Authorities considered the false image they received to be interference in a criminal investigation, the senior official said.Data was also backed up to Dropbox in huge quantities, the official said. Congressional offices are prohibited from using Dropbox, so an unofficial account was used, meaning Awan could have still had access to the data even though he was banned from the congressional network.
Awan had access to all emails and office computer files of 45 members of Congress who are listed below. Fear among members that Awan could release embarrassing information if they cooperated with prosecutors could explain why the Democrats have refused to acknowledge the cybersecurity breach publicly or criticize the suspects.
Having this access makes it simple to send a fake phishing e mail to from the Wasserman gal to a Hillary aide. 

Immature wallet design

A thread on Reddit has revealed that careless cryptocurrency users have been sending Bcash (bitcoin cash) tokens to bitcoin wallet addresses, losing funds in the process. The prevalence of such serves as a warning for cryptocurrency users to exercise caution whenever conducting transfers between wallets.
The user puts his do-re-me into a wallet.  So the wallet needs to be enabled for bit cash. and multi-currency wallets (there is no other kind), should notice that bit cash is not enabled and warn the user.

Problem, basically, idiot techies who fuck up the english language.  A wallet is a device that holds multiple types of currencies, from cards to bills.  It is in the damn dictionary, and every marketing guy from every fintech company should attend my seminar on how not to be a friggen idiot. 

I was misinformed

Swedes getting raped.

“Do you know how many rapes we have?” Lamotte was told by the police officer in a conversation he recorded and uploaded to YouTube. “No, I don’t. But I’ve talked to the mother and her daughter feels very bad because of this, and I know who this man is, I have his name, address, social security number and everything, and, I mean, you haven’t even interrogated him yet, isn’t that remarkable?” asked Lamotte. “Well, you might think so, but we have so many similar issues and so few people available we cannot cope with the workload,”responded the police officer. “That sounds unbelievable. A 12-year-old girl who is raped, it’s just a child,” said Lamotte. “We have 3-year-old children that get raped,” responded the police officer, sounding clearly exasperated.

Not what I heard.

The rumor was that Swedish women were tired of stale Swedish men and ordered up a ton of immigration for the fabulous sex and evolution.  Now they tell me it was all a big rape swindle.  

More likely is that Swedes suffer a huge case of Magic Walrus delusion.

My hometown, in the news

FRESNO, Calif. (KFSN) --
A government watchdog group says a couple Central Valley agencies are trying to keep financial information away from the public.Transparent California has pay records dating back six years for more than two million government employees, but they still get static from some agencies when they try to follow the money trail.
The local politicians are hiding their sweetheart salary deals.  We are fairly corrupt around here. 

The dollar system

US Threatens To Cut Off China From SWIFT If It Violates North Korea Sanctions

A specially strong threat given that the millennials agreed to cover interest charges with 3% of their income, forever.  Hard to get a more enthusiastic bunch of debt slaves.

Tuesday, September 12, 2017

Low Growth Liberal

Why the US government can’t be downsized - Larry Summers
Watching kitten videos does not cover entitlement spending.

Racists in Congress

Congress declares, in a joint resolution, that white racists are worse racists than the racists in any other group of races identifiable in Congress as having racist pricks.  Clear logic that white folks dunnit, any clear headed racist can see that.

Better idea.  Shut Congress down, they seem worthless.

Discrimination against the Caucasus Mountains

Reed College in Portland, Ore., has a reputation for two things. One is academic excellence: it's had far more than its share of Rhodes and Fulbright scholars, and has been called “the most intellectual college in the country.” The other is leftism and identity politics: its “Discover Reed Fly-In Program,” which pays the expenses of prospective students who want to visit the campus, is open to people of every background — except Caucasians.
Well, I missed that one. My ancestors are Kentucky mountain boys, pure Redneck, as Redneck as they come.  So, yea, send me a ticket, and travel expenses.

Gavin Newsom gets bad news

Allegations of sex with minors three decades ago roil Seattle mayor's race

The Seattle was an honest to goodness fake socialist, like Gavin.

The easiest way to tax cryptocurrency activity

Government needs to require a universal, multi currency smart cash device.  Then government taxes activities, as usual, collecting the tax in the coinage used.  Government keeps its monopoly on secure device, guaranteeing its citizens the fair sandbox.

All the issues we see in bitcoin tax involve the conversion to a monopoly tax dollar.  The sandbox ios autotraded, government holds and spends reserves in the sandbox.  If government insures the honest smart card, then it provides a limited guarantee in the sandbox and it need not readily convert to and from the central bank standard money.  Its oney can always ride the even money bet, regardless of currency.