Sunday, September 10, 2017

Initial estimates on storm damage

BofA and GS put up numbers, posted on Zero Hedge.

My number agrees in general, 1% of GDP over three years with almost half of that in the next year.   Interest charges are going to jump once the recovery spending begins.

 Florida and Texas are the second and third largest economies.  A slow recovery in Florida makes a mild recession mostly certain.  The key variable to watch in Florida is the rehiring rate which depends on a tourist rebound.  It may not happen.  Texas will fare much better, bouncing back.

Another worry is housing prices in Florida, very much coherent with California, both Mediterranean climates and their markets moved together during the crash of 2008.  Look for any sudden drop in housing starts in California.

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