Tuesday, September 19, 2017

More earthquakes, more hurricanes

We have to retally the black swan costs.  

Unexpectedly, nature may have tipped us into recession. I was thinking it more likely we skated by.  All the cycles remained aligned, long term generation cycle, government cycle, trump hump; and now the first and second of the black swans.  If we do a dip in Q3 below 1% growth, then things get very unmeasurable for three quarters because winter is late in recording and Q1 is government slow down quarter anyway.

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