Tuesday, September 19, 2017

My labor market theory and recesions

I extend the idea of tradebook uncertainty to labor markets and note the large tradebook uncertainty for labor  markets.

Hence, any shock that distorts the labor market means hiring managers must way for the market to clear a bit before hiring, generally that means for all the mass layoffs to stop.

Why mass layoffs?

Generally because companies and institution make employment bets when the labor market is calm.  But the intermediaries are gone, most of the staff hired up and the third party staffers gone elsewhere.  

In California we see this effect.  If something shakes he economy a bit, then public sector slows a bit, except the entire sector moves with Sacramento. But, a few lay offs of teachers will go into a teachers employment market that is not geared up, head hunters are not on the job working this market. The short term bulging makes the labor market uncertain and hiring managers lengthen their employment searches, slow things down.  Teachers should be able to move between public schools and industry faster with less matching effort.

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