Wednesday, October 11, 2017

Curve flatter by a basis point

And the one year rate rises to 1.40%, the curve remaining under a 1% slope.  Hence, we get a stock market rise.

Now, 1.4% seems like a good one year rate in these times, everyone likely jumping on it.  But government debt issuance stays ahead of the mob, one year consistently rising, the ten year cannot go lower.

If Congress were to sequester right now, we could hold on, avoid a recession.  But it looks like Ned and Trump plan to invert the curve.

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