Saturday, October 7, 2017

The more typical storm

NATE SLAMS GULF COAST CAT 1 HURRICANE RACES INLAND

Except, it is slamming into the transportation hub which itself is bottlenecked in responding to three hurricanes and an earthquake.  When should Florida restart  winter season?  Hard to tell, the queues are long and queue variance large. The tourism industry has to wait until transportation becomes a bit untangled.  Labor market uncertainty is increasing. 

Like house starts.  We are off season so let the workers go south an rebuild at higher wages. Builders can restart when? Not sure, depends on what how the wages settle in the south during reconstruction.  The disturbance floats up the distribution chain. The idea is to get efficient labor mobility, a very responsive labor market that gets skills to these disasters by fast adaption.  My solution.

These disasters, hurricanes, floods, earthquakes, droughts and severe snow and freezes, all happen about once every 3-5 yeas and expense a typical point and a half of GDP on defense.  If you want something for the swamp to do, do this: Keep about another point of GDP in the cash kitty, on account. then let FEMA own that account, drawing  from it during disasters, call it the FEMA account, including credit.  That allows the insurance industry to gauge, or expense, the private share of these costs; we better price the disasters if FEMA is responsive.

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