Mostly laid off Florida tourist workers, minimum wage and strong demand for skilled construction labor. An economist, not me, pointed this out and I cannot locate the reference.
Janet is not raising rates in December, she has to deal with hurricane issues and is entering white noise holidays. She is also facing the normal Q1 downturn as we all submit to government ledger services.
He most paramount problem is the ten year yield, Congress cannot operate if that gets too high and the curve is as shallow as the debt cartel can afford.
What me worry?
Watch the labor market itself, the JOLTs. The threat is that the transaction costs of rehiring jump as the market function was not ready for the events. If hiring managers see a jump in hiring costs they will delay hiring, or commit to layoffs until the market clears. But, the market uncertainty, being normally large anyway, makes the requant in hiring process extreme.
No comments:
Post a Comment